Sassydasheng

I am headed to Orlando for NYE 2019-2020. The flights I'm looking at are LAX-MCO, December 28-Jan 5. Unfortunately those dates are set in stone due to nonrefundable bookings made on the Orlando end. Unfortunately when airfare was released it was insane! It is currently $708 for economy. I checked on miles and it is 100k roundtrip, which also seems insane! So, first question - is this normal? Do you think I could expect to see it go down in cost over the coming year (I have a google fare alert set up)? I checked some other airlines that do nonstop flights and the costs are pretty similar, the cheapest being $626 but not good flight departure times.

I do have 2 alternates to paying the full OOP cost, which I was hoping to get some ideas on. (FYI - I currently have 64k miles)
Option 1: Book one flight with $ and one with miles. This would cost ~$360 in cash and 50k miles (each leg was the same cost).
Option 2: Sign up for the AAmerican Aviator card, which gives 60k miles and is a $95 annual fee. I would probably cancel it after miles are deposited, since I don't want to have that annual fee every year (I already have an American cc for the benefits). In total it would cost me $110 (annual fee plus flight fees) and cost me 40k of my existing miles.

What would you guys do? Wait for cheaper fares or do Option 1 or 2 above?

Thanks in advance!

3Cforme

UA, AA and DL all have similar cash pricing on those dates. IIRC, AA has an unpublished award level that can be as high as 90K miles EACH WAY in coach within the US-48 around holidays. Yes, I have seen awards at that price.

Unterwegs

You could wait until Southwest releases their flights and book on their website.

SJOGuy

I fear you've boxed yourself in to some very busy travel dates to and from America's most kid-friendly destination. With Jan. 1, 2020, falling on a Wednesday, I bet many school districts won't bother to restart classes until the following Monday. That means a few extra days in Orlando for families after the New Year with the first weekend in January being mobbed at MCO. AA will charge what the market can bear.

If it were me, I'd wait before booking anything. This is still over 10 months away. Prepare yourself that you're not going to find much better, but I don't think you have to bite now.

bse118

NYE 2019-2020 is a long time from now. Wait. Prices very well may come down.

The "open for booking" mark/date does not always - or even often - correspond to cheapest fares.

WiscAZ

100k miles does seem high but it's been pretty widely documented around here as to the increase in award rates. It just doesn't always make sense and your dates are challenging. I booked 4 award tickets PHX to MIA during Spring Break for 60k each. That was a Saturday to Saturday trip which we were flexible on. Originally we wanted to do Saturday to the following Sunday and the rates went up to something like 90k each. What does it look like if you by chance came back on the 6th? Perhaps adding an extra night - even if it means a different hotel - could save you a bunch.

Award trip can be funny. Just recently I booked my wife on a PHX to MSN round trip for 25k miles total. Then I needed to book it again this month and it was 70k! Same days of the week just a month later. Luckily she didn't end up going so I was able to cancel the 70k mile trip and not take that hit!

NYC Flyer

AA first class nonstop for $869 starts to look appealing (currently available). If cost is the only consideration, look at TPA and even DAB from LAX/ONT/BUR/LGB/SNA as well.

Certainly would not look to blow 100k points for coach (or first).

erik123

Prices are likely to come down 3-6 moths out. I would wait. You can check the likelhood of savings using the hopper app.

dantheflyingman

While prices will (may) come down, I've found that booking our (mandatory) trips from ORD-MCO (wife's parents live in the Orlando area), you usually are guaranteed pricey tickets around holidays. Personally, I usually set Google Flights alerts on my preferred itinerary and book when it drops below my "acceptable" threshold (for us, $500pp RT in economy) or when July 4 rolls around, whichever comes first.

xliioper

Given the Sat to Sun flights OP is looking at, I would doubt they will come down much, if at all. The airlines are well aware of the historical demand profiles for such weekend departures around the holidays and their yield potential. Just shifting dates a couple days shows much better availability in the lower fare buckets. Their stinginess in bucket inventory for the dates OP has chosen is for a reason.

ijgordon

Yup. I was going on a cruise over New Year's a handful of years ago and needed to get from NYC to FLL with no flexibility ,around a key holiday. Fares maybe 2-3 months in advance were ~$900. BUT the seat maps (I was mainly looking at JetBlue for whatever reason) were fairly empty. So I figured the prices would come down. They didn't, and the seat maps slowly filled up.

People will pay.

That said, there's probably no reason to lock yourself in 10 months in advance.

Google Flights is great, it didn't exist when I had this issue.

PHL

Gig103

United has a redeye LAX-TPA (Tampa, FL) for $452 basic / $524 economy right now, and that's under 2 hours drive time from MCO. Rental cars are around $400 for your dates out of both Tampa and Orlando, so if you were planning on a car during your trip it's a sunk cost. If not, a one day, one-way TPA-MCO rental is $76 with CostcoTravel including unlimited one-way miles which comes out ahead.

OR, splurge a little. LAX-MCO on AA first class is $869, well worth the bump from the $700s economy seat for a flight of that length

I'd wait until it gets closer, personally. Someone else mentioned waiting for Southwest, and there's also JetBlue (Google tells me they populate routes 6-8 months out).

Jaimito Cartero

satman40