Mar 11, 2020, 10:13 am
Last edit by: Ocn Vw 1K
In order to reduce noise in the Coronavirus / Covid-19 : general fact-based reporting thread, and to create a central place to invite any member to ask a basic question about the impact of COVID-19 on travel, your moderators have decided to open this separate "lounge" thread for related discussion that isn't strictly fact-based reporting.
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Discussion of general economic impacts of Covid-19 belongs in the OMNI forum, not here.
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This is a protocol for posting adopted by the forum Moderator team:Please follow this protocol, based on FlyerTalk Rules and long-standing FlyerTalk best practices. Doing so will help keep the thread open, and allow our moderator team to aid members, rather than having to resort to discipline.
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Please stay healthy,
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Any member who can provide a constructive, helpful answer to a question; or post constructively in reply to a member's point-of-view, is welcome to post.
All FT rules apply, including avoiding personalized, snarky, political, other off-topic, commercial, and repeatedly disruptive content.
Discussion of general economic impacts of Covid-19 belongs in the OMNI forum, not here.
Discussion and critique of political/government actions to aid the economy or which is far more political than related to COVID-19 is for the OMNI/PR forum, not here.
This is a protocol for posting adopted by the forum Moderator team:Please follow this protocol, based on FlyerTalk Rules and long-standing FlyerTalk best practices. Doing so will help keep the thread open, and allow our moderator team to aid members, rather than having to resort to discipline.
Constructive, respectful posts, views, opinions, questions, and replies, related to the topic are welcome. Avoid commenting on members personally, or posting off-topic or political messages.
While respectful disagreement of a posted view is allowed, dont call-out posters to prove their points. FlyerTalk has never required discussion standards at the level of a Ph.D. dissertation defense, or a trial court witness cross-examination.
After a reasonable exchange of views on a point, please yield the floor so that others may bring up different topics, questions or points.
Especially important in this time of pandemic, when normal life and travel have been upended: please take regular breaks from the thread.
Please stay healthy,
your FT Coronavirus and Travel Moderator Team.
COVID-19: Lounge thread for thoughts, concerns and questions
Mar 5, 2020 | 8:10 am
#16
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I think the US government needs to change its messaging. This will _inevitably_ happen in the next 7-10 days IF, as I suspect, we discover there are hundreds (or possibly thousands) of cases in the US that had not been counted due to lack of testing over the last 6 weeks. That's still a couple of doublings from if we were to change behaviours now, but it's better than nothing.
I'm actually not advocating shutting down all international or domestic travel. But I think people should really limit to _absolutely essential_ travel. Conferences and large trade shows should probably cancelled. I would do the same for cruises, because although any one cruise right now is low risk, once a ship has an outbreak, it presents a massive burden to the healthcare infrastructure. I don't advocate shutting schools for now, since it will take many essential workers out of the workforce by making them take on childminding duties, but that may need to happen in communities with transmission, and EARLY. And critically, there should be widespread messaging about the benefits of social distancing.
The most important things that need to happen from a federal perspective are a) widespread testing to get a sense of baseline: without that, you can't model what the epidemic growth rate will be, b) announce publicly, preferably by the President, that testing will be free (this isn't an issue for most countries, it IS an issue in the US), c) ramp up measures to increase production of PPE, secure internal supply chains etc.
All of the above are very doable, and won't bring most of the economy to a halt, although certain pockets will certainly take a massive hit, but that's coming anyway: the cruise-ship industry is going to be dead over the next 6 months no matter what, better to bury it now before it causes more damage to early containment and mitigation efforts.
tb
I'm actually not advocating shutting down all international or domestic travel. But I think people should really limit to _absolutely essential_ travel. Conferences and large trade shows should probably cancelled. I would do the same for cruises, because although any one cruise right now is low risk, once a ship has an outbreak, it presents a massive burden to the healthcare infrastructure. I don't advocate shutting schools for now, since it will take many essential workers out of the workforce by making them take on childminding duties, but that may need to happen in communities with transmission, and EARLY. And critically, there should be widespread messaging about the benefits of social distancing.
The most important things that need to happen from a federal perspective are a) widespread testing to get a sense of baseline: without that, you can't model what the epidemic growth rate will be, b) announce publicly, preferably by the President, that testing will be free (this isn't an issue for most countries, it IS an issue in the US), c) ramp up measures to increase production of PPE, secure internal supply chains etc.
All of the above are very doable, and won't bring most of the economy to a halt, although certain pockets will certainly take a massive hit, but that's coming anyway: the cruise-ship industry is going to be dead over the next 6 months no matter what, better to bury it now before it causes more damage to early containment and mitigation efforts.
tb
A number of scientific conferences are getting canceled for instance. Especially ones where a lot of people come in internationally, One I was supposed to attend in Florence next month is still on but I cancelled and I would be surprised if many attended.
Mar 5, 2020 | 8:24 am
#17
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The US can presumably not shut down all cruise travel globally, but it should hopefully not be difficult to close all US waters/ports to cruise ships.
Not sure that the federal government can shut down movie theaters or sports stadiums, but state/local health departments regularly shut down restaurants that spread diseases or violate heath codes.
Perhaps some sort of carrot and stick approach? You can shut down now and we will help you with stimulus funds.
Or you can try to continue to operate (perhaps with additional local heath mandates that are very costly to implement such as deep cleaning every theater after every show), but when (not if) you go out of business when customers eventually stay away because they realize it isnt a good idea to go see a movie now (or because Hollywood postpones the launch of every popular movie like James Bond), you will be on your own.
Personally, I see a lot of small businesses that are marginally profitable go out of business when just a small percentage of the population decides that going out for dinner or shopping at a small boutique for non essential products right now is neither wise nor needed.
Mar 5, 2020 | 8:33 am
#18
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 7,359
Which “this” ?
The US can presumably not shut down all cruise travel globally, but it should hopefully not be difficult to close all US waters/ports to cruise ships.
Not sure that the federal government can shut down movie theaters or sports stadiums, but state/local health departments regularly shut down restaurants that spread diseases or violate heath codes.
Perhaps some sort of carrot and stick approach? You can shut down now and we will help you with stimulus funds.
Or you can try to continue to operate (perhaps with additional local heath mandates that are very costly to implement such as deep cleaning every theater after every show), but when (not if) you go out of business when customers eventually stay away because they realize it isn’t a good idea to go see a movie now (or because Hollywood postpones the launch of every popular movie like James Bond), you will be on your own.
Personally, I see a lot of small businesses that are marginally profitable go out of business when just a small percentage of the population decides that going out for dinner or shopping at a small boutique for non essential products right now is neither wise nor needed.
The US can presumably not shut down all cruise travel globally, but it should hopefully not be difficult to close all US waters/ports to cruise ships.
Not sure that the federal government can shut down movie theaters or sports stadiums, but state/local health departments regularly shut down restaurants that spread diseases or violate heath codes.
Perhaps some sort of carrot and stick approach? You can shut down now and we will help you with stimulus funds.
Or you can try to continue to operate (perhaps with additional local heath mandates that are very costly to implement such as deep cleaning every theater after every show), but when (not if) you go out of business when customers eventually stay away because they realize it isn’t a good idea to go see a movie now (or because Hollywood postpones the launch of every popular movie like James Bond), you will be on your own.
Personally, I see a lot of small businesses that are marginally profitable go out of business when just a small percentage of the population decides that going out for dinner or shopping at a small boutique for non essential products right now is neither wise nor needed.
Mar 5, 2020 | 8:35 am
#19
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Personally, I see a lot of small businesses that are marginally profitable go out of business when just a small percentage of the population decides that going out for dinner or shopping at a small boutique for non essential products right now is neither wise nor needed.
Although it will also depend on how innovative and quick-thinking they might be. For instance (if suitable), they could still stay in business if they implement a customer-friendly delivery service. Won't work in all cases though...
Mar 5, 2020 | 9:14 am
#20
Join Date: Aug 2012
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And, while we're stamping this out, what's to stop anyone from abroad slipping through and starting the infestation all over again? Seems kind of inefficient making all these sacrifices here only to risk another potential...er...high frequency infection from an unwitting traveler. Or, are we satisfied that our testing measures at our borders are effective enough?
Mar 5, 2020 | 9:37 am
#21
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Sure, let's start for WA and CA, in particular that cruise ship on my home shores. Can Gov Newsom send them back? To another State? Not allow anyone to leave until there's 14 day days of infection free passengers? I'm all for surgically targeting high risk areas and demographics.
And, while we're stamping this out, what's to stop anyone from abroad slipping through and starting the infestation all over again? Seems kind of inefficient making all these sacrifices here only to risk another potential...er...high frequency infection from an unwitting traveler. Or, are we satisfied that our testing measures at our borders are effective enough?
And, while we're stamping this out, what's to stop anyone from abroad slipping through and starting the infestation all over again? Seems kind of inefficient making all these sacrifices here only to risk another potential...er...high frequency infection from an unwitting traveler. Or, are we satisfied that our testing measures at our borders are effective enough?
re anyone from abroad - I think we are beyond the point where we can stop every single infected person from spreading it further. I suspect the risk from international travel might get reduced magically as more and more routes get shut down due to lack of travelers.
Testing measures at the border? Which ones? Temperature checks are relatively cheap and easy and may catch some cases, but they are obviously not going to catch every case. And why stop at international travel - is Florida at greater risk from travelers from EU or from WA state?
Mar 5, 2020 | 9:43 am
#22
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no disagreement there.
It seems stupid/short sighted to keep the ship at sea. Whether there are infected people aboard or not, eventually the ship will be docked. And CA would seem the best equipped state for that. What is to be gained by making access to the ship difficult for health vs. docking the ship (and keeping the pax onboard until the 21 cases have been tested)? Then, if there are positive results, get everybody off the ship and quarantine them either at home (if in driving distance) or in motels.
re anyone from abroad - I think we are beyond the point where we can stop every single infected person from spreading it further. I suspect the risk from international travel might get reduced magically as more and more routes get shut down due to lack of travelers.
Testing measures at the border? Which ones? Temperature checks are relatively cheap and easy and may catch some cases, but they are obviously not going to catch every case. And why stop at international travel - is Florida at greater risk from travelers from EU or from WA state?
It seems stupid/short sighted to keep the ship at sea. Whether there are infected people aboard or not, eventually the ship will be docked. And CA would seem the best equipped state for that. What is to be gained by making access to the ship difficult for health vs. docking the ship (and keeping the pax onboard until the 21 cases have been tested)? Then, if there are positive results, get everybody off the ship and quarantine them either at home (if in driving distance) or in motels.
re anyone from abroad - I think we are beyond the point where we can stop every single infected person from spreading it further. I suspect the risk from international travel might get reduced magically as more and more routes get shut down due to lack of travelers.
Testing measures at the border? Which ones? Temperature checks are relatively cheap and easy and may catch some cases, but they are obviously not going to catch every case. And why stop at international travel - is Florida at greater risk from travelers from EU or from WA state?
Mar 5, 2020 | 9:46 am
#23
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 7,359
It seems stupid/short sighted to keep the ship at sea. Whether there are infected people aboard or not, eventually the ship will be docked. And CA would seem the best equipped state for that. What is to be gained by making access to the ship difficult for health vs. docking the ship (and keeping the pax onboard until the 21 cases have been tested)? Then, if there are positive results, get everybody off the ship and quarantine them either at home (if in driving distance) or in motels.
Testing measures at the border? Which ones? Temperature checks are relatively cheap and easy and may catch some cases, but they are obviously not going to catch every case. And why stop at international travel - is Florida at greater risk from travelers from EU or from WA state?
PS - So, if it's both stupid and short sighted to keep the ship at sea, to what end would we close ports of entry? Wouldn't any cruise ship just show up and would know of our "both stupid and short sighted" to keep a ship at sea policy, and eventually be assured entry?
Last edited by Visconti; Mar 5, 2020 at 10:12 am Reason: PS...
Mar 5, 2020 | 10:24 am
#24
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Despite the fear, there doesn't seem to be a lot of coronavirus in the USA right now. By noon EDT, we only have 6 new cases today and a grand total of 8 people hospitalized in serious or critical condition. It seems like common sense that we should do our best to keep it this way.
While the USA looks alright, I can't say the same about Italy. That area in northern Italy is reminding me of Wuhan. Italy has 769 new cases today. I know it's inconvenient, but can anyone tell me why any foreigner who's been to Italy in the last 2 weeks should be admitted to the USA? Similarly, every American who wants to return from Italy should require a 2 week self-quarantine. We effectively did this with China, and it worked. We can do it for 2 weeks and then extend as necessary. This is common sense. Let's keep this disease out of the USA as much as possible. Just because they're Europeans doesn't mean we should treat them differently from Chinese. A disease doesn't care about your nationality or skin color.
While the USA looks alright, I can't say the same about Italy. That area in northern Italy is reminding me of Wuhan. Italy has 769 new cases today. I know it's inconvenient, but can anyone tell me why any foreigner who's been to Italy in the last 2 weeks should be admitted to the USA? Similarly, every American who wants to return from Italy should require a 2 week self-quarantine. We effectively did this with China, and it worked. We can do it for 2 weeks and then extend as necessary. This is common sense. Let's keep this disease out of the USA as much as possible. Just because they're Europeans doesn't mean we should treat them differently from Chinese. A disease doesn't care about your nationality or skin color.
Mar 5, 2020 | 10:29 am
#25
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Despite the fear, there doesn't seem to be a lot of coronavirus in the USA right now. By noon EDT, we only have 6 new cases today and a grand total of 8 people hospitalized in serious or critical condition. It seems like common sense that we should do our best to keep it this way.
While the USA looks alright, I can't say the same about Italy. That area in northern Italy is reminding me of Wuhan. Italy has 769 new cases today. I know it's inconvenient, but can anyone tell me why any foreigner who's been to Italy in the last 2 weeks should be admitted to the USA? Similarly, every American who wants to return from Italy should require a 2 week self-quarantine. We effectively did this with China, and it worked. We can do it for 2 weeks and then extend as necessary. This is common sense. Let's keep this disease out of the USA as much as possible. Just because they're Europeans doesn't mean we should treat them differently from Chinese. A disease doesn't care about your nationality or skin color.
While the USA looks alright, I can't say the same about Italy. That area in northern Italy is reminding me of Wuhan. Italy has 769 new cases today. I know it's inconvenient, but can anyone tell me why any foreigner who's been to Italy in the last 2 weeks should be admitted to the USA? Similarly, every American who wants to return from Italy should require a 2 week self-quarantine. We effectively did this with China, and it worked. We can do it for 2 weeks and then extend as necessary. This is common sense. Let's keep this disease out of the USA as much as possible. Just because they're Europeans doesn't mean we should treat them differently from Chinese. A disease doesn't care about your nationality or skin color.
That is certainly a VAST underestimate of cases in the US.
Mar 5, 2020 | 10:30 am
#26
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Consider the following:
2004 - SARS
2008 - Avian
2010 - Swine
2012 - Mers
2014 - Ebola
2016 - Zika
2018 - Ebola
2020 - Now, Corona
In addition to all of the above, I can't even recount all the other "dire" needs we were briefed on. Perhaps, the Coronavirus is different? Even then, I just don't feel the sense of fear and urgency, because, as they say, I've been around the block so many times. While anything is possible and this "may" prove as or more catastrophic than the Experts are predicting, my experience has been that "this time it's different" are the four most expensive words in history.
2004 - SARS
2008 - Avian
2010 - Swine
2012 - Mers
2014 - Ebola
2016 - Zika
2018 - Ebola
2020 - Now, Corona
In addition to all of the above, I can't even recount all the other "dire" needs we were briefed on. Perhaps, the Coronavirus is different? Even then, I just don't feel the sense of fear and urgency, because, as they say, I've been around the block so many times. While anything is possible and this "may" prove as or more catastrophic than the Experts are predicting, my experience has been that "this time it's different" are the four most expensive words in history.
Mar 5, 2020 | 10:34 am
#27
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Letting them actually dock probably wasnt a mistake. What is the alternative - a Westerdam odyssey?
Leaving the pax on the ship with the crew wandering around probably was a bad idea. Not sure whether its clear yet whether the ships HVAC was a factor.
Mar 5, 2020 | 10:35 am
#28
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We're only seeing small numbers because of lack of testing. It's likely just as widespread as in Europe. Test everyone with symptoms, and the numbers will match Europe. A travel ban only makes sense, if we find out whether the US has avoided sustained community spread.
Mar 5, 2020 | 10:37 am
#29
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Those who do few tests have few confirmed cases.
Those who do no tests have no confirmed cases.
Mar 5, 2020 | 10:37 am
#30
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So what? The biggest virus problem in the USA right now is fear. The biggest virus problem in Italy is the virus. Why bring more of it here? Other than inconvenience, what plausible rationale could there be to not excluding Italian travellers from the USA right now?