Just seen that the Met Office are forecasting winds gusting to 49mph (43kts) from the south (i.e. direct cross-wind) for several hours at Heathrow on Saturday: forecast. What sort of impact is this likely to have on flights?

Where are you flying to?

Hmmm... I'm doing a BGO B2B and then on to BOS.

Fingers crossed!

Miami at 9:10am so, hopefully, before it gets too bad and not a flight that will be proactively cancelled if flow is reduced.

It's unlikely it would be since as you say it is a relatively early departure so cancellation would be unlikely to help with any flow restrictions later in the day.

the models have been hinting at something for a few days but there is no strong agreement as to how windy, where and when.

Sat night into Sun and Sun night into Monday and then Thurs.

The models keep sending the low further south so your early departure should be OK, and I expect the worst of the wind to downplayed by the models tomorrow

Hope so,it's MEX for me on sunday at 1245..

I'm off to CDG at 08:40 on Monday - hopefully we'll get off ok!

Currently predicting winds up to 24mph (around 40kph) so it's looking better.

I hope so I have to be in Dublin before 4pm.

Fortunately you have a very talented team that will be able to land to the aircraft limits of approx 40kts/47mph across the runway...

Hmmm, yes, it is looking interesting for mid-day onwards Saturday...

I'm also flying short haul EU so will be keenly watching the situation and will help where possible.

From the UK Met Office surface charts prognosis the situation is okay early morning (winds SSW around 25kts) but by mid-day it is around 40kts or more as there is a 20 hPa pressure gradient from West Scotland to Southeast corner of UK...Winds are indeed forecast to be straight Southerly winds at 12 Noon. Certainly suggesting quite a difference in air masses as well with colder air moving in by midnight Sat. into Sun.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm

Anything up to 72 hours out is generally quite accurate with around 75 % score (with the usual caveat that they know what is currently happening and why as well as what the important drivers are going forward.)

Currently they think the Icelandic low (which is quite deep actually at 950 hPa) will remain quite stable and help feed and therefore deepen the low coming across the pond which is around 1000 hPa right now but expected to deepen to around 956 hPa for Sat. @ noon just off the coast of Northern Ireland. It appears they think it will stay put there and just spin off new frontal systems every 24 hours or so...

Sunday @ 12 noon is also currently looking quite windy with similar 40+ kts but at least from the SW instead of straight S (crosswind)...

We'll have to watch the TAF's and see how the forecasters confidence is as this gets closer in time and space to us.

Not had a BA IRROPS for some time so I'm likely due (and I wonder if LTNPhobia is travelling as well?)

Starting to get the TAF covering tomorrow.

Wind is forcast to pick up from 0700 onwards. After 1000 it does start to get a bit worse and gusts to 35kts coming from 190 degrees.

Am I right in thinking that the landing crosswind limit for the heavies (777/747) is 35-40kts? I haven't calculated the crosswind component but I would imagine that if it is coming from 190deg it could gust close to the limit?

BBC weather suggesting a southerly of up to 52mph (45kts) at 3pm tomorrow.

I think it is more like 40 or just over that. The smaller A320 series are at 38kts I think, and the larger birds will have a higher limit.

Crosswind component for wind 80 degrees off runway heading is 0.98 x wind speed.

Thanks, KARFA. Could be an interesting day...