I simply have to repeat myself: How is it possible NOT to make money on two of the worlds most lucrative markets (China and India)- all other airlines have all flights full, and are litteraly BEGGING airport authorities for extra slots (most recent LH adding HYD and BA expanding into BLR). Flying a lot to India (and longhaul in general) I would love non-stop connections out of CPH, but it seems that SAS has a special nack for not being able to work the longhaul routes. I guess if this goes on we will soon only be serviced by regional flights to from major hubs such as FRA/AMS/LHR (God forbid).... And with moving extra capacity away from CPH in favour of ARN seems to be ridiculous. They should ADD long haul capacity - make investments in the future, and grow their business in stead of continous cut-backs.
It seems like a very carefully mapped out plan to getting rid of SAS entirely in a not too distant future... But who knows maybe Tommy is employed by LH to achieve just that ;)

And I have to repeat myself again. ;) There's a reason why both OS and SK cancel their routes to PVG. If one thinks that opening routes to China or India is a quick solution, think again. Has it ever occurred to anyone that maybe the business loads to PVG were low??

Also, the factor with 3 night breaks for pilots at PVG compared to only over night in PEK is also important. That means that SAS will have a colony of over paid pilots in PVG at all times.

The investments and expansion will come, trust me. But I doubt PVG will be on SAS route map anytime soon.

Sorry for the interlude, grabbar. ;)

I´d like to add some comments: Knowing some AY China managers rather well, I got to hear upgrade chances HEL-PVG-HEL are next to nil because biz is fully sold out on a constant basis.

Ex-China flights on AY now begin at 1000+ Euros in the lower booking classes with limited mileage.

Hmmm...

I wouldn's say PVG is the market of all markets. Here are the flights I found from Europe on a normal day:

LH from FRA: Operated with a 744
LH from MUC: Operated with a 346
BA from LHR: Operated with a 777
KL from AMS: Operated with a 74M
AF from CDG: 3 flights on the day I checked, 2 with a 777, one with a 346
AZ from MXP: Operated with a 763
AY from HEL: Operated with a 343

That's 9 flights... Compared to only AA/BAs 17 flights a day from LHR to NYC that's not a lot....I'm sure if I listed all European flights to NYC, it would be over 50 flights

You can find ex-PVG/PEK - European AY destination r/t fare from 5000 CNY (Z class).

Just FYI, MH D class(Biz) European MH destination r/t fares are from 15500 CNY(ex-PVG) and 17000 CNY(ex-PEK) while AY's cheapest Biz fare is starting from 24500 CNY.

The main problem why there are so few flights to PVG (and to PEK) is, capacity(too few terminals and runways).

PVG has only 1 terminal and 2 runways. PEK has 2 terminals and 2 runways.
I haven't been NY, but I think both JFK and EWR have many terminals and runways.

How about ARN-ORD in 98??

Not necessarily. It currently looks like they are planning to cut a total of seven weekly flights to EWR, IAD, and ORD also next winter freeing up one plane (assuming that the refitting of new business class is finished by then), which is more than enough for three weekly ARN-BKK.

The real challenge will be to handle summer 2008...

The point from PVG is that SAS failed while others are succeeding. Maybe SAS product is not good enough for PVG route, maybe the schedule wasn't perfect or people just don't like SAS on that route.

Anyway, SAS has pulled out from PVG and that is their choice. As well as it is their choice to randomly pull out from anywhere else too. They do not have a strategy and they are just trying to do anything possible as they are scared of the future. They know that they do not have a strategy and they will lose the competition eventually if they do not come up with a good plan - they lost the Nordic game about Asia flights to AY already and they cannot win Atlantic game. They will not be the best product available as there are BA, VS and others for that.

I hope they will invent something but at the moment it seems that there isn't much left to do.

One think they seem to do now is to create as many ARN based routes as possible - it will work only with Swedes and people willing to travel first to ARN. It will not get them new passengers from Europe as it is more convient to travel to FRA/MUC first. Maybe SAS wants to be back in the small size and concentrate on Nordic only. Oh well ... they are not putting much effort to Finland so let's say they are just concentrating on Scandinavia again. Scandinavian Airlines ... not worldwide.

Yeah, they love the AY MD-11 (now a 343)... Much better than SAS :p

Let's again point out that AY lost a substantial amount last year while SAS Intercont made almost SEK 200 mill

Although they pointed out that the reason was two strikes and other one-time arrangement costs.

But anyway ... in my opinion both AY and SK are doomed to either stay small in the certain market or to be eaten by the monster airlines. Just a matter of time. I personally look forward for LH to take SK and Ay will most probably end up into BA or some other monster.

I have no desire to engage into Sweden vs. Finland war here :D I think both companies are equally bad these days.

Exactly.

If SAS does not have the skills to make money on PVG (which is a biz destination - not a tourist destination - as opposed to PEK) - they completely lack the skill sets required for a modern airline. It may be due to bad schedule, high costs or other - but it all comes down to lack of management skills.

I continue to be completely baffled by this move.

I think one of the reasons why SAS cannot make money on CPH-PVG is, cargo.

1. Bad schedule (too late schedule for cargo, as there are limited connection flight onward same day.)
2. Untrustworthy delivery (tail hit, stirkes, schedule change etc.)

From customer's side of view, who wants to send goods with an airline which fails to deliver more often than other airlines?

Passenger load factor on routes between China and Japan is not high.
But very high load of cargo and good ratio of high yield business passengers (in eco) which makes the routes profitable.

So in my opinion, SAS does not fail only because of bad passenger load.

I just sampled some flights randomly in ExpertFlyer, arrival times to PVG:

AY 08:05pm
MU 08:10am
BA 09:25am
VS 09:45am
AF 10:00am
LH 11:10am
CA 01:40pm
LH 03:10pm (from MUC)
CA 03:40pm (from CDG)

Don't remember what was SK's arrival time ... I cannot remember all of those things :) But it wasn't very early, I remember seeing AY/BA/VS already there when SK arrived.

Is this expansion scheduled round the arrival of potential A350 or 787s?

:D

Valid point. I am not an expert on that route - but if the number of up-ops truly is as high as discussed - then yield is not likely the best. But hey it is a ARN route so Lindgren will not likely kill that one :p