I am a rather infrequent user of Uber/Lyft and have a question regarding a ride later this week.

I need to go to SFO airport from a somewhat remote East Bay location around 4 AM in the morning. Are these services likely to have 'Surge' pricing (e.g. due to there being fewer drivers at such hours)?

What are the chances of a driver accepting the ride and then canceling before he gets to my location because some other more lucrative opportunity comes his way?

Which of the two services is likely to be less expensive at that hour?

PS. I am told that at this particular East Bay location, cabs are hard to come by at the best of times!

I don't know how many days you have before your trip, but if it were me I'd set an alarm and do a test check for a couple of nights. If none available, then look for other options.

I, too, thought it might be hard to hire a driver at the not so wee hours of the morning. It turns out there are a number of drivers who specialize in it. And long runs to the airport are always valued. Way, way more than driving wasted party-goers at 2am. Still, if you're unsure about the starting neighborhood, do as cblaisd suggested and check a day or two ahead of time.

What do you mean by remote? Are you talking something like Pittsburg or something like Diablo Grande?

I live in the outskirts of Phoenix and I've never once seen surge in my area at any time of day. I'm very used to waiting 15-20 minutes for my car to show up. About 20% of the time I get a "no cars available" message. Depending on where you are I think this would be more likely than a surge.

On that note, I would strongly recommend that starting around 3:15 you log on every so often and make sure there are cars around so you can go to plan B if you need to.

Very close to zero. The driver can't see where you're going until they arrive to pick you up, and a drive across the bay area (long distance) at freeway speed (relative short time) is about as good as they will get without surge. They get paid much more for miles driven than elapsed time.

I've only used Uber in the bay area so I can't compare the two, but here they're pretty competitive (I took a ride yesterday outbound on Lyft and return home on Uber and they were within $3).

You can get a fare estimate right now if you want to check.

Uber:

1. Manually scroll the map so the pin is at your desired departure point.
2. You may get a message saying "Your pin is far from your GPS location. Please confirm"etc, etc. You can ignore this.
3. Tap "Fare estimate"
4. Manually type in your destination

Lyft:

1. Manually scroll the map so the pin is at your desired departure point.
2. Tap "Set Pickup"
3. Tap "Fare Estimate"
4. Type in destination

In the Bay Area, it's unlikely that you will have a problem finding an Uber at any time. Surge pricing is unpredictable at off hours and could easily kick in if there is poor weather or somesuch.

While the driver can't see the destination until he picks you up, you also don't have to input it if you don't want to. But, bear in mind that airport runs are coveted and that the driver will likely get a trip back into town as well, so it's a positive not a negative.

But, if you want certainty, book a car service.

Before using a car service, book Wingz. It's like Uber but pre-arranged. The pricing is between Uber and a car service. We use it when traveling to the airport in the middle of the night

Here's a referral code for $5 off - https://wingz.me/invite/blakedo

(Full disclosure - I also get $5 off if you use it. No hard feelings of course if you don't.)

I always try to not have to leave at 4am but on the times that I did, surge pricing was in effect a few times. Lyft typically has fewer/less surge, but that's very anecdotal.

If you currently use Uber, check to see if you have an option next time you book a ride. It seems random who is chosen to be in the Beta test and I believe it's only the bay area.