Discussion of security in "Traffic"
#16
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Mike
#17
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According to the book, most road deaths involve sober drivers who are not speeding.
Although there are no perfect answers, I think that the money should go toward building safer roads and maintaining the roads we currently have. There isn't enough money to maintain our roads and therefore keep them safe.
But we're dealing with a failure in American politics and public health. Public and political interest--and therefore money--is being diverted to the items of greatest emotional interest, not the areas of greatest risk.
If I could, I'd slash the TSA into a much smaller, much simpler, much cheaper organization. Then I'd protect the safety of the "homeland" by building safer roads, ending tobacco addiction, and preventing the spread of HIV. But that just seems way to rational for Washington.
Although there are no perfect answers, I think that the money should go toward building safer roads and maintaining the roads we currently have. There isn't enough money to maintain our roads and therefore keep them safe.
But we're dealing with a failure in American politics and public health. Public and political interest--and therefore money--is being diverted to the items of greatest emotional interest, not the areas of greatest risk.
If I could, I'd slash the TSA into a much smaller, much simpler, much cheaper organization. Then I'd protect the safety of the "homeland" by building safer roads, ending tobacco addiction, and preventing the spread of HIV. But that just seems way to rational for Washington.
#18
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If I could, I'd slash the TSA into a much smaller, much simpler, much cheaper organization. Then I'd protect the safety of the "homeland" by building safer roads, ending tobacco addiction, and preventing the spread of HIV. But that just seems way to rational for Washington.

Mike
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#20
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In an excellent paper by Ohio State political science professor John Mueller, "The Quixotic Quest for Invulnerability: Assessing the Costs, Benefits, and Probabilities of Protecting the Homeland," there are some common sense premises and policy implications.
The premises:
"1. The number of potential terrorist targets is essentially infinite.
"2. The probability that any individual target will be attacked is essentially zero.
"3. If one potential target happens to enjoy a degree of protection, the agile terrorist usually can readily move on to another one.
"4. Most targets are 'vulnerable' in that it is not very difficult to damage them, but invulnerable in that they can be rebuilt in fairly short order and at tolerable expense.
"5. It is essentially impossible to make a very wide variety of potential terrorist targets invulnerable except by completely closing them down."
The policy implications:
"1. Any protective policy should be compared to a "null case": do nothing, and use the money saved to rebuild and to compensate any victims.
"2. Abandon any effort to imagine a terrorist target list.
"3. Consider negative effects of protection measures: not only direct cost, but inconvenience, enhancement of fear, negative economic impacts, reduction of liberties.
"4. Consider the opportunity costs, the tradeoffs, of protection measures."
http://psweb.sbs.ohio-state.edu/facu...er/ISA2008.pdf
The premises:
"1. The number of potential terrorist targets is essentially infinite.
"2. The probability that any individual target will be attacked is essentially zero.
"3. If one potential target happens to enjoy a degree of protection, the agile terrorist usually can readily move on to another one.
"4. Most targets are 'vulnerable' in that it is not very difficult to damage them, but invulnerable in that they can be rebuilt in fairly short order and at tolerable expense.
"5. It is essentially impossible to make a very wide variety of potential terrorist targets invulnerable except by completely closing them down."
The policy implications:
"1. Any protective policy should be compared to a "null case": do nothing, and use the money saved to rebuild and to compensate any victims.
"2. Abandon any effort to imagine a terrorist target list.
"3. Consider negative effects of protection measures: not only direct cost, but inconvenience, enhancement of fear, negative economic impacts, reduction of liberties.
"4. Consider the opportunity costs, the tradeoffs, of protection measures."
http://psweb.sbs.ohio-state.edu/facu...er/ISA2008.pdf
#21
Join Date: Aug 2006
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I just finished reading "Traffic," by Tom Vanderbilt. It's a GREAT book; beautifully written, compelling arguments. It discusses topics like traffic jams, driver behavior, road design, and--above all--safety.
The last chapter looks at automobile accidents compared to the risk of terrorism. To put it in perspective: more people die each month in auto accidents than from the September 11th attacks.
Vanderbilt argues that the social psychology of risk comes into play: auto accidents are so prevalent that they are routine. The statistical rarity of terrorism is what makes it so much more threatening.
Imagine if we took all of the money spent on puffer machines, plastic bags, shoe inspections, and gate screening and spent it on road safety?
Above all, the hassle factor prevents travelers from traveling by air. If the TSA's antics mean that more people will travel by car, they put more lives at risk.
The last chapter looks at automobile accidents compared to the risk of terrorism. To put it in perspective: more people die each month in auto accidents than from the September 11th attacks.
Vanderbilt argues that the social psychology of risk comes into play: auto accidents are so prevalent that they are routine. The statistical rarity of terrorism is what makes it so much more threatening.
Imagine if we took all of the money spent on puffer machines, plastic bags, shoe inspections, and gate screening and spent it on road safety?
Above all, the hassle factor prevents travelers from traveling by air. If the TSA's antics mean that more people will travel by car, they put more lives at risk.
We are willing to spend money and give up rights to counter terrorism, but are unwilling to spend money or give up rights or change our habits to save thousands of lives (in the U.S.) each and every month.
#22




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Originally Posted by Mats
If I could, I'd slash the TSA into a much smaller, much simpler, much cheaper organization. Then I'd protect the safety of the "homeland" by building safer roads, ending tobacco addiction, and preventing the spread of HIV. But that just seems way to rational for Washington.
If I could, I'd slash the TSA into a much smaller, much simpler, much cheaper organization. Then I'd protect the safety of the "homeland" by building safer roads, ending tobacco addiction, and preventing the spread of HIV. But that just seems way to rational for Washington.
What's the difference between telling a guy he "must" wear a condom to prevent AIDS or "can't" us IV drugs (which we already have outlawed) vs. telling a guy he can't bring a switchblade on a plane? Not much really.
Difference is, you can ensure compliance with one becuase you can monitor the guy bringing a switchblade on a plane and you can't monitor what the guy does in the bedroom.
And don't give me the "education" re:AIDS because everybody with an IQ over 40 knows how AIDS is spread - in the vast majority of cases they simply choose to ignore it and spread the disease anyway. Think about it - everybody "knows" how babies are made, but that doesn't change the alarming rate of unwed/unplanned pregnancies in the country today.
/soapbox
#23
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In an excellent paper by Ohio State political science professor John Mueller, "The Quixotic Quest for Invulnerability: Assessing the Costs, Benefits, and Probabilities of Protecting the Homeland," there are some common sense premises and policy implications.
The premises:
"1. The number of potential terrorist targets is essentially infinite.
"2. The probability that any individual target will be attacked is essentially zero.
"3. If one potential target happens to enjoy a degree of protection, the agile terrorist usually can readily move on to another one.
"4. Most targets are 'vulnerable' in that it is not very difficult to damage them, but invulnerable in that they can be rebuilt in fairly short order and at tolerable expense.
"5. It is essentially impossible to make a very wide variety of potential terrorist targets invulnerable except by completely closing them down."
The policy implications:
"1. Any protective policy should be compared to a "null case": do nothing, and use the money saved to rebuild and to compensate any victims.
"2. Abandon any effort to imagine a terrorist target list.
"3. Consider negative effects of protection measures: not only direct cost, but inconvenience, enhancement of fear, negative economic impacts, reduction of liberties.
"4. Consider the opportunity costs, the tradeoffs, of protection measures."
http://psweb.sbs.ohio-state.edu/facu...er/ISA2008.pdf
The premises:
"1. The number of potential terrorist targets is essentially infinite.
"2. The probability that any individual target will be attacked is essentially zero.
"3. If one potential target happens to enjoy a degree of protection, the agile terrorist usually can readily move on to another one.
"4. Most targets are 'vulnerable' in that it is not very difficult to damage them, but invulnerable in that they can be rebuilt in fairly short order and at tolerable expense.
"5. It is essentially impossible to make a very wide variety of potential terrorist targets invulnerable except by completely closing them down."
The policy implications:
"1. Any protective policy should be compared to a "null case": do nothing, and use the money saved to rebuild and to compensate any victims.
"2. Abandon any effort to imagine a terrorist target list.
"3. Consider negative effects of protection measures: not only direct cost, but inconvenience, enhancement of fear, negative economic impacts, reduction of liberties.
"4. Consider the opportunity costs, the tradeoffs, of protection measures."
http://psweb.sbs.ohio-state.edu/facu...er/ISA2008.pdf
#25
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In an excellent paper by Ohio State political science professor John Mueller, "The Quixotic Quest for Invulnerability: Assessing the Costs, Benefits, and Probabilities of Protecting the Homeland," there are some common sense premises and policy implications.
The premises:
"1. The number of potential terrorist targets is essentially infinite.
"2. The probability that any individual target will be attacked is essentially zero.
"3. If one potential target happens to enjoy a degree of protection, the agile terrorist usually can readily move on to another one.
"4. Most targets are 'vulnerable' in that it is not very difficult to damage them, but invulnerable in that they can be rebuilt in fairly short order and at tolerable expense.
"5. It is essentially impossible to make a very wide variety of potential terrorist targets invulnerable except by completely closing them down."
The policy implications:
"1. Any protective policy should be compared to a "null case": do nothing, and use the money saved to rebuild and to compensate any victims.
"2. Abandon any effort to imagine a terrorist target list.
"3. Consider negative effects of protection measures: not only direct cost, but inconvenience, enhancement of fear, negative economic impacts, reduction of liberties.
"4. Consider the opportunity costs, the tradeoffs, of protection measures."
http://psweb.sbs.ohio-state.edu/facu...er/ISA2008.pdf
The premises:
"1. The number of potential terrorist targets is essentially infinite.
"2. The probability that any individual target will be attacked is essentially zero.
"3. If one potential target happens to enjoy a degree of protection, the agile terrorist usually can readily move on to another one.
"4. Most targets are 'vulnerable' in that it is not very difficult to damage them, but invulnerable in that they can be rebuilt in fairly short order and at tolerable expense.
"5. It is essentially impossible to make a very wide variety of potential terrorist targets invulnerable except by completely closing them down."
The policy implications:
"1. Any protective policy should be compared to a "null case": do nothing, and use the money saved to rebuild and to compensate any victims.
"2. Abandon any effort to imagine a terrorist target list.
"3. Consider negative effects of protection measures: not only direct cost, but inconvenience, enhancement of fear, negative economic impacts, reduction of liberties.
"4. Consider the opportunity costs, the tradeoffs, of protection measures."
http://psweb.sbs.ohio-state.edu/facu...er/ISA2008.pdf
I thought Mike already explained that sensible reasoning isn't welcome here -- in fact, the TSA should start screening passengers for logic, as no one but a terrorist would bring logic to an airport.
#26
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I'm certain that some knowledgeable FTer will advise on this: Have not some PDs gone from classifying "accidents" as "crashes" because of the above? IOW, there are no official vehicle "accidents", only "crashes."
#27
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OK, I really agree with the premise. The problem is where do you put this money so it actually will reduce those deaths, either crime or auto accident? How much safer do people want to be without sacrificing some freedom? This is why TSA sucks. They were given lots of money and no oversight while setting up, so went way overboard with the rules and regulations, and we know the result is we are no more safe today than pre-9/11. So what do you spend money on to make streets safer? Make all roads 10 mph? Stop signs every 50 feet? Video cameras everywhere to "watch" for crime? I'm with you on cutting TSA way back. But how about just giving us taxpayers our money back?
Now, imagine being able to start throwing some serious money at road design and maintenance. Improve the driver training systems (getting a licence sounds suspiciously easy compared to what I went through). Bring in a comprehensive roadworthiness tests for vehicles to reduce the likelihood of critical failures causing accidents.
The fact that accident rates all over the world are variable and not fixed shows that it is entirely possible to reduce accident rates. It's not surprise that in Europe, Scandinavia has some of the lowest accident rates, since their driving standards are some of the highest in Europe and they have extremely good roads.

