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-   -   Worst-case terrorist scenario (https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/practical-travel-safety-security-issues/748076-worst-case-terrorist-scenario.html)

prismwiz Oct 20, 2007 11:04 pm

[QUOTE=CessnaJock;8594956] And that would probably bring down the economy.[QUOTE]

The terrorsits depend on the economy. Assuming a terrorist group based in SW Asia over an oil resource. USA componies like ExonnMobil buy the oil, pay the terrorists, and sell to USA citizens. The terrorist group uses the money to buy weapons to attack the USA. The USA suffers an Uber-Deppresion. The world cascades into a large deppresion. ExonnMobil stops paying terrorists money to buy oil. Terrorists don't have money to attack USA anymore. USA stops being attacked, it's that simple!

Now why don't we cut out the middlemen--terrorists--and use the resources of the USA to attack ourseleves to stop ourselves from being attacked by terrorist groups. All we need is a certain--stupid--Texan to pay some people to attack the USA, possibly people his family and friends had contacs with before his fathers presidency.

It could never happen!




Note: I am not writing that the Bush Admin helped cause the 9/11 attacks--I feel that the people that write those conspiricies need to wake up to reality--although from this line of reasoning the possiblity seems too real.

GUWonder Oct 20, 2007 11:10 pm


Originally Posted by CessnaJock (Post 8594305)
The jihadists' intent is to kill Americans.

Not always and not even generally -- at least not by measure of who they actually intend to kill and do kill.

Any other comic book worthy "worst (sic) case scenario"? In that case, which one is the actual "worst case scenario"?

prismwiz Oct 20, 2007 11:24 pm

Worst Case Ever
 

Originally Posted by GUWonder (Post 8595071)
which one is the actual "worst case scenario"?

The worst case scenerio to me would be an Earth Abides scenerio where a virus that kills nearly all of humanity is created. In addition to the book scenerio the terrorists would be based on the moon and after people suffer and grive, nuke the world into submission and eventually the terrorists on the moon would come down upon their holy site--Mecca, Jerusalem, Vatican--and then live life. If they were of a fundementalist and misogonystic kult they would forget to have women in their kult and quickly die out. The last three people in the kult will kill each other over a small squabble of docterine of the kult and the last person will commit suicide because he murdered the other two people. Maybe I should write a book...

jwillett13 Oct 21, 2007 4:16 am


Originally Posted by CessnaJock (Post 8594556)
Reasons Why That Wouldn't Work.
  1. The red ILS "INOP" flag on the pilot's Glide Slope or HSA would pop out and
  2. The pilot would land by other means
  3. Possibly on another runway at the same facility
  4. Or by GCA on the same runway
  5. Or maybe shoot a localizer back course
  6. Or in another city
  7. Or at a nearby AFB or NAS or MCAS
  8. So don't get downright zany

1 - Not necessarily. I have flown a few ILSs that the GS starting acting erratic but yet no flag so I abandoned the approach. Once in IMC this happened and I came back around for a LOC only. Tower had an alarm in the tower cab after I said something.
HSA?? What’s that?

2- Yeah, we call that a visual approach.

3 - Assuming another approach is available and the equipment isn't co-located in the same facility.

4 - GCA? I assume you mean ASR or PAR. If you are approved for that.

5 - If its the back course is to the same runway you cant do it. Remember an ILS is also comprised of a LOC signal. No signal for either GS or LOC if the equipment is overheated. Some airports only have one shack for several runways. AFW uses the same freq & equipment for the ILS for opposing approaches.

6 - If you have the gas.

7 - Most airports don't have a military airfield nearby

8 - Not any more zany that your ideas.
I have also worked for an airline that could not use a certain airport for a couple of days because the ILS shack was struck by lighting.

alanR Oct 21, 2007 6:51 am


Originally Posted by CessnaJock (Post 8594305)
The jihadists' intent is to kill Americans.

No, the intention is to destroy American influence in the world - 9/11 would have had similar results if 1 person or 1 million had died

As for destroying American influence in the world, the "intelligent" Dick Cheney and his 4 horsemen seem to be achieving that very well without the jihadists having to do very much

law dawg Oct 21, 2007 9:16 am


Originally Posted by Superguy (Post 8593051)
I agree that it's much larger. Personally, I think Afghanistan was justified because the Taliban WERE harboring Osama. As he claimed responsibility, we couldn't just let that go. Sudan shouldn't just be our problem, and Somalia I really don't think we needed to be involved there as it's still a mess there too.

The Arab-Israeli conflict is centuries old and that's going to take a long time to resolve, if it ever is. Honestly, I think we should largely butt out of a lot of world politics and spend our money at home. The mess we have right now with wars and so on is starting to cause an economic downturn. And maybe if we start focusing more on things at home, things will start to settle down elsewhere.

I don't think America's imperialist, but I do think it's a bit too nosy. And that nosiness with even good intentions can and has gotten us into trouble.

There's a lot of truth to what you're saying.

And there's a lot of truth to what people say about us being over there for oil. But I also note that those people complaining about us being over there for oil are still consumers. When they sign up to live the Amish lifestyle then I can listen to their argument with more enthusiasm.

Because non-commercial gasoline is only a small part of oil consumption.

law dawg Oct 21, 2007 9:17 am


Originally Posted by GUWonder (Post 8593552)
Not always.

Why not?

I'm truly interested in your thought process on this, BTW, not being a smartass per usual. ;)

law dawg Oct 21, 2007 9:22 am


Originally Posted by prismwiz (Post 8594921)
If I assume my own definition of terrorism as correct an attack on airplanes will not be the most horrific possiblility of a terrorist attack. An attack on a school would be the most horrific. To provide an example I will use an unnamed school in Bellevue, Wa where I am familiar with the campus. The terrorist would drive into the school at 11:30 during a rainy winter day. The terrorist would wear a suicide bomber belt under his coat and claim he needs to give a lunch to his child. The terrorist would walk into the middle of the lunchroom and blow himself up, killing at least 200 children. All of this is possible with no security and minimal planning. It would not be very hard to plan this attack and repeat it in 100 schools at the same time. That attack would truly be the worst-case terrorist scenerio of all.

One word-

Beslan.

law dawg Oct 21, 2007 9:44 am


Originally Posted by CessnaJock (Post 8594956)
With all due respect - and as I said above - having a few thousand people disappear in flight without a sound would stop people from flying entirely. And that would probably bring down the economy.

With all due respect, the consequences of attacking a few schools would pale in comparison to the fallout ;) from a nuclear attack upwind from a large population center. Even causing a nuclear power plant to get out of control would create a sterile zone that no one could enter for thousands of years. The death of a thousand school kids would be "child's play" in comparison.

One needs to understand the difference between the strategic goals and tactical goals of such an organization.

The tactical goals may fail yet still be a strategic success. And vice versa.

Also remember the goal of any war isn't to kill each and every member of the opposing side. It's to break their will and ability to fight. You can break a country long before you can exterminate every last occupant of it. The same goes with an organization or movement or religion, etc, ad nauseum. So killings true purpose must ultimately be measured against that yardstick - how much does that attack do damage to their ability/will to fight?

GUWonder Oct 21, 2007 9:48 am


Originally Posted by law dawg (Post 8596412)
Why not?

I'm truly interested in your thought process on this, BTW, not being a smartass per usual. ;)

I don't believe that to be the case; but it's neither my or your ;) thought process nor being that which you mention which is truly of interest here.

The facts are what they are: most "jihadists" are not primarily or even secondarily interested in attacking Americans or attacking Americans in America. Most such outfits mentioned as "jihadists" by Bushists have much more narrow and geographically-specific political objectives than Al-Qaeda. (Some "jihadist" terrorist organizations are even targetted by Al-Qaeda or are otherwise in conflict with them yet get lumped into the same category.) To lump a selective list of extremist outfits into one bucket on the basis of religion (read: "jihadists") and globalize the issue -- even as most such outfits have no global objectives -- is a useful fiction for certain parties but a dangerous fiction if one cares mostly about US national security interests and a global reduction in terrorist attacks rather than some other more narrow interests.

If you cannot understand the above, then I cannot help you.

polonius Oct 21, 2007 9:55 am


Originally Posted by alanR (Post 8595794)
No, the intention is to destroy American influence in the world - 9/11 would have had similar results if 1 person or 1 million had died

As for destroying American influence in the world, the "intelligent" Dick Cheney and his 4 horsemen seem to be achieving that very well without the jihadists having to do very much

You cannot speak about Jihadists' generally, but OBL made numerous public statements on his web site and in his videos stating his objective as forcing the USA to pull it's forces out of Saudi Arabia, because he felt their presence was defiling the holy places. Bush finally caved into his demands in 2002, and since then, OBL has launched no furhter attacks against the USA.

CessnaJock Oct 21, 2007 10:06 am


Originally Posted by prismwiz (Post 8595032)
...the nuke would be near impossible.

I agree. Unfortunately, that's not the same as "impossible." There is enough weapons-grade fissile material missing from the FUSSR to irradiate the United States, and enough nuclear engineering expertise in Pakistan to make it happen.

This is why I think the U.S. forces deployed in the middle east would better serve our interests if they were redeployed to guard our ports and infrastructure.

Be very afraid.

Superguy Oct 21, 2007 10:22 am


Originally Posted by law dawg (Post 8596404)
There's a lot of truth to what you're saying.

And there's a lot of truth to what people say about us being over there for oil. But I also note that those people complaining about us being over there for oil are still consumers. When they sign up to live the Amish lifestyle then I can listen to their argument with more enthusiasm.

Because non-commercial gasoline is only a small part of oil consumption.

I agree with everything except for the oil part. I say if we're over there for the oil, where the hell is it? If we were getting oil out of the deal, I don't think we'd still be paying nearly $3 a gallon for gass and heating bills wouldn't be high either. Hell, even electric's up because of it (even though my power company primarily uses coal :rolleyes:).

Plastics are a large part of where oil is used too. I don't think most people realize most plastic comes from petrochemicals.

law dawg Oct 21, 2007 10:35 am


Originally Posted by GUWonder (Post 8596572)
I don't believe that to be the case; but it's neither my or your ;) thought process nor being that which you mention which is truly of interest here.

The facts are what they are: most "jihadists" are not primarily or even secondarily interested in attacking Americans or attacking Americans in America. Most such outfits mentioned as "jihadists" by Bushists have much more narrow and geographically-specific political objectives than Al-Qaeda. (Some "jihadist" terrorist organizations are even targetted by Al-Qaeda or are otherwise in conflict them yet get lumped into the same category.) To lump a selective list of extremist outfits into one bucket on the basis of religion (read: "jihadists") and globalize the issue (even as most such outfits have no global objectives) is a useful fiction for certain parties but a dangerous fiction if one cares mostly about US national security interests and a global reduction in terrorist attacks rather than some other more narrow interests.

If you cannot understand the above, then I cannot help you.

No, I understand the above and actually (...God and Dovster forgive me for actually saying this...please.....) agree with it.

Most jihadists do have a narrow scope of interest, particularly at first. Most aren't interested in the USA (beyond a general hatred) as a tactical or strategic target unless it coincides with their objectives.

But I was interested why you said that terrorist organizations do not want to be acknowledged for many of their attacks, when it appears self-evident to me that they very much do.

law dawg Oct 21, 2007 10:41 am


Originally Posted by polonius (Post 8596606)
You cannot speak about Jihadists' generally, but OBL made numerous public statements on his web site and in his videos stating his objective as forcing the USA to pull it's forces out of Saudi Arabia, because he felt their presence was defiling the holy places. Bush finally caved into his demands in 2002, and since then, OBL has launched no furhter attacks against the USA.

Since I stopped showering I have not been cold.

It doesn't matter that it's summer and it doesn't get cold. It was entirely a result of stopping showering.

:rolleyes:

OBL and company haven't been able to pull of an attack. They're on the run and on defense. But it doesn't seem to have stopped some of their ideologues from trying to attack the US and US interests.

And what does OBL and company want from the USA?
http://observer.guardian.co.uk/world...845725,00.html


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