What do you predict for the future of TSA?
 

I was thinking - with the "mission creep" meter alarming a bit lately (taking over ID checks, SPOT, more electronics must be removed, etc), I wonder what airport screening will be like in 3-5 years. What's your predication?

There are two possible scenarios that come to mind for me:

1) TSA will implement another intrusive policy soon and that will break the camel's back. People will protest, and even Congress will realize TSA had gone too far. Airport security rules will loosen up, with SPOT only being at critical-security airports (such as NYC, Los Angeles, DC), shoes not being removed, and the liquid ban removed. This could take a while, but they'd eventually curtail those policies, and TSA screeners will stay as screeners, with help from security cameras and people being viligant. They'll also install puffers at each airport.

2) TSA will become increasingly intrusive, but people will continue to accept their BS. Eventually, TSA will get a list of stolen items from retailers, and try to find things that are stolen. The liquid ban will be there to stay, and eventually the ban would extend to breast milk, too (because mom's can be tewwoists, ya know). Carry-ons will become more limited, and cords will have to be checked. ID's will be REQUIRED to fly, and you'll be required to participate in a conversation about where you're going (yes, domestically)... more and more SPOT officers will watch and observe behaviors, and gate checking will eventually be mandatory, too. TSA screeners (officers) will also be equipped with taser gun's to keep people in line.

Those two are kind of the "extreme" ends - I hope #2 definitely won't come true.

So, post your own predictations/gut feelings of what will come of TSA/airport security.

#2 is Kippie Porn - Hope he doesn't read FT :rolleyes:

I predict many more SNL skits.

I am reminded of the saying "The beatings will continue until morale improves".

Given that we have a war on drugs, a war on crime, a war on terrorism, a war on the American public, a war on ___________, I just don't see it letting up. Especially since the "public safety" folks will be sharing data and since some dim bulb has realized that the TSA screeners represent a wonderful opportunity to stop whatever crime du jour exists.... regardless of the Constitution. Recall that the Admiralty Laws have been used in the war on drugs, and that RICO is now used in many, many more legal cases than it was originally intended for (because the penalties are much higher than the underlying crimes would ordinarily carry).

I see absolutely no end to this useless government organization. Our government wants us to believe that if we make grandma take off her shoes and coat before going to the gate that will keep us safe (versus using covert operations to find where the bad guys are) and Americans just fall for it. Unfortunately, Iraq and our continued involvement in the Middle East has made the problem much worse thus insuring that the keystone cops of the TSA will have jobs for life.

Although it might take a period of time, I do truly believe that OP's Scenario #1 is the eventual outcome. One day the TSA will go too far and finally the sheeple will speak out against the intrusiveness.

I think #2 is more likely, unfortunately. You need a mass movement to make #1 come true. But the majority of Americans don't fly much, and the majority that do are happy to do anything "if it makes us safer."

You throw a frog into boiling water and it goes nuts; you put a frog in a soothing pan of warm water and turn up the heat slowly and it senses no violation. We are going to wake up one day and find we're required to file 24-hour notice of interstate travel on a TSA website, and a majority will be OK with that. I really despair for this country.

Agree. Until the thought-process "abundance of caution" are stricken from the minds of those in power, we will continue down the path to self-destruction.

Almost daily I read in the paper about things that I did or enjoyed as a youth that have been banned or are now crimes.... out of "protecting us from ourselves". If it didn't hurt/kill us back then WHY do we need to ban it now?

/rant off

Like dodge ball in gym class? Or all the physical tests/eating rules mothers-to-be are frightened into submitting to or following with no concommitant drop in the incidence of birth defects?

I agree - just leave us alone and we'll be fine.

Increased morale, better pay, more customer focused, more annual leave

I think the tide has already begun turning against the TSA - more and more members of the traveling public are vocalizing their displeasure and actually recognizing that most of what they experience is nothing more than window dressing.

The difficulty will be in generating action - Congress (based on my own experience) is loath to act on anything which a political enemy could construe as weakening security defenses.

However, the TSA is its own worst enemy. Suffering from unsustainable attrition rates, the quality of new hires continues to decline, and with that, the number of employees sticking it out also continues to fall. Soon, a critical mass could be reached where the number of new hires falls far short of the number of resignations/firings and the employee rolls drop below levels necessary to provide appropriate staffing at our airports.

As this occurs, more airports will begin looking to opt-out and bringing in their own contract screeners. The TSA will quickly evolve into a top-level security policy/procedure clearinghouse with little to no field presence.

increased morale, better customer service, ....highly unlikely.
 

TSA's insistence on increasing the use of part-time screeners is hurting the organization. TSA expects new people to come to work right in the middle of the day for 20-25 hours a week. Maintaining a second job becomes an impossibility. Bad relations with the employees is going to lead to bad relations with the customers.

I was recently offered full-time split shifts with a two hour break. This works fine for me and most of my colleagues who took split-shift. Most places split-shift means a 4 hour break as mentioned by DCA Screener. This would NOT work well for most screeners. It took some of us 3 years to be offered real full-time employement. Most people just get sick of waiting and quit.

That sounds like the Wal-Mart employment model. But, you get an employee discount at Wal-Mart. ^

And perhaps drug testing. ;)

I have never seen the phrase "Kippie Porn," but it is the most accurate description of this crap that I have ever read. I intend to re-use it often. MikeFly, please let me know if you need to be credited.

Mike

It truly depends on factors outside government control to a large degree. If another attack occurs or is attempted here in the States you'll see more money going to the TSA. If not, the next flavor of the month crisis will eventually supersede the TSA and the TSA will lose funding and have to adjust accordingly. This happened to the DEA after 9/11. Pre 9/11 DEA was a funding wet dream. Post 9/11 - not so much. Of course TSA won't disappear but it may be scaled back, outsourced to some degree, etc. if there is no perception of a threat from AQ and company.

That's a big problem.

The TSA was built on this we'll pay people bigger amount of money over the Argenbright folks. Even that money is starting to become an unlivable wage. Not to mention that red tape and attrition rate that is building. And building, and building.

Portions of the post that previously appeared in this space have been deleted. I would provide you with a reason why, but doing so would likely be against the TOS.

True. Do you think TSA presence at airports will decrease if there is an attack on a maritime or rail system? I don't think we have the resources to "protect" everything to the level of airport "security."

I thought they got plenty of freebies already such as liquids, gels, pocket knives and weapons. No wait... they HAVEN'T FOUND ANY GODDAMN WEAPONS YET!

I think you're correct in that assumption. As for lessening aviation screening, I just can't see that. Civilian aviation has been too tempting a target for these guys for too long to abandon it completely.

But I may well be wrong. There's only so much money and manpower to go around and you have to staff accordingly to some degree.

As much as I would like to see civil aviation security responsibility returned to the FAA along the lines of pre-DHS, I doubt that will happen. In fact, the only way it would happen would be if the entire DHS were disbanded.

The TSA won't be disbanded precisely because of mission creep. If all they professed to do was civil aviation security, going back to the FAA would be easy. But, there would be nobody to do rail security, mass transit security, transportation infrastructure security, and, most important, port security. I'm not placing a quality and merit judgment on these functions. I'm just stating that adding missions to an agency that are essentially unrelated ensures the agency's existence. On a momentary positive note, there is some benefit to having a centralized transportation security agency to do centralized R&D and acquisition.

The TSA is also very convenient to any Administration for several reasons:

1. because of it supplies an official administration spokesperson and sends the message to the taxpayers that the government is on top of this airport security thing. Kippie is and his predecessors were notoriously bad/incompetent, but he is visible and screeners are visible. Can anyone name former FAA Assistant Administrators for Civil Aviation Security (Kippie-equivalent position pre-TSA), let alone remember any time that they were in print or on TV? The only one I can name is Cathell Flynn, only because I interviewed for a position as his deputy.

2. Having a talking head and a focus for transportation security is essential in order to maintain a proper fear level in the population. Maintenance of fear benefits politicians at all levels and of both parties. When you feel the population becoming too complacent, when they start complaining about loss of civil liberties, when you need to deflect attention from another crisis or scandal, all you have to do is to trot out a Kippie or a Chertoff to proclaim a new threat.

3. Having an agency and leader is convenient because it gives you somebody to blame and ultimately fire when things go wrong.

The quality and contentment of the work force doesn't even enter into the equation. There will always be somebody out there who wants the relative security of a government job.

We -- the flying public -- don't count in terms of the TSA's future. The only ones who can do something about it is the airline industry.

In 15 years or even 10, who is going to remember Kip Hawley or Michael Chertoff?

My guess would be that the TSA will always be around in some form, but if we continue to not have any major incidents aboard US aircraft, the government will eventually "privatize" a large portion of the current duties to save $$$. I don't think that they are going to keep all of the thousands standing around as government employees. Since the government justifies TSA etc. by telling us they have to find the evildoer Terrorist! that is no doubt lurking in ever neighborhood in America is eventually going to stop working. It might take another ten years or so, but I think it will happen. I don't think it will ever fully go back private like pre 9/11, but there will one day be a political or monetary reason to drastically change the TSA. It won't have anything to do with security, but then it doesn't today either.

I figured no TSA employee will ever have to buy their own shampoo again in this lifetime.

TSA is going to get involved with the other modes of transportation.

Rail, Metro, Maritime, etc.

The next big thing at the airports will be the loss of on-line checkin.

Loss of online check-in? Highly unlikely. The airlines won't allow it. They only permitted small changes to the existing process (36->24hours, non OLCI for selectees), but there is a significant revenue impact to abolishing OLCI, nor is there any security justification for ending it.

Rail, Transit? They already tried their VIPR attacks on various transit systems around the nation and were met with almost universal ridicule - given they can barely maintain staffing levels to support effective airport screening, deploying resources to public transit, cruise terminals and other non-aviation areas would not only spread them thin, but certainly increase public ridicule and disgust and hasten their demise.

Old Timers reminiscining at that time the way their parents did about the over-hyped Communist scare.

Not a chance. OLCI improves an airlines' bottom line, and there's no way the airlines will let the TSA cut into their profits.

Capitalism has long trumped airport security.

It's Friday Afternoon
 

TSA will expand and never downsize, at least until after they complete TSA Priority Action Agenda Item Number One: Catch Comrade Enemy Number One "Spiff" at a checkpoint with 3.5 ounces of toothpaste and ship him to Gitmo. ^ Mission Accomplished.

Near riots at some gates as the sheep finally get fed up, critical mass, explosion, rebirth.

I'm most worried about the rebirth part. I would prefer a black dwarf.

Some of them look like they've never bought shampoo in their lifetime.

Just remember...it's only explosive if combined with the conditioner.

Catch Comrade Enemy Number One "Spiff" at a checkpoint with 3.5 ounces of toothpaste and ship him to BWI Concourse B

hahhahahahahahahahaahahaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa aa oh this is good!!!!!!
Remember those Herbal Essences commercials when the woman is having a dry orgasm in the lavatory while washing her hair? Too bad you won't be seeing that commercial anymore :)

Tell that to the folks at TSL.
Honestly OLCI is going to be replaced with secure kiosks.

If or when this happens my flying days will be over. It is getting to the point the hassle is just not worth it (not only TSA). My telecommuting hours have already increased this year and I expect more to come.

Unfortunately I'd have to agree with you. Just like how they piloted going through security with just an itin and that went away.

Welcome to Dick Cheney's America.

Here's where we're headed....

http://www.wtopnews.com/?nid=456&sid=1231019

I think the leaders of that town already suffered a unnoticed bioterror attack some time ago, and it rendered them all idiots.