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Accuracy of fare increase/decrease predictors

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Accuracy of fare increase/decrease predictors

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Old Sep 25, 2014 | 10:28 pm
  #1  
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Join Date: Sep 2014
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Accuracy of fare increase/decrease predictors

I'm looking to book a flight departing slightly less than two weeks from now. Kayak.com tells me that it's 79% likely the fare will drop in the next 7 days and to wait to purchase, but I've been waiting for a few days now and it's done nothing but increase.

Getting real nervous. Any insight?
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Old Sep 26, 2014 | 1:39 am
  #2  
nux
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If you're happy with the current price I would book it, especially for a flight departing soon.
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Old Sep 26, 2014 | 1:43 pm
  #3  
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Agreed; I'm not very happy with the current price though which is why I ask. The same days of the week, just one week earlier (departing less than one week from today), is about $100 cheaper. Yet kayak warns me "only 2 seats left at this price!" etc for the dates I'm interested in.

Apologies, I'm still relatively new to booking flights in general and when to do it etc, have only booked probably around 10 round trip flights myself

edit: Interestingly, booking two one way trips adds up to exactly the same price as the round trip ticket. Is this typical? I assumed there'd be a round trip discount. I'm happy with the departing flight price, but not the returning, so I might buy the departing now and wait for the returning. Good or bad decision?

Last edited by wbrinst; Sep 26, 2014 at 2:00 pm
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Old Sep 26, 2014 | 10:29 pm
  #4  
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I only book when I'm happy with the current price and schedule. For me time is also worth money. I'll pay $50-$100 more to get better timings. For instance I booked flights from San Francisco-Athens and Rome-San Francisco as part of a cruise.

For $75 more I can fly on Lufthansa, get United miles and arrive in Athens at 5:05 PM vs 12:00 Midnight or even 10 PM. On the return I can leave Rome at 12:05 PM arriving at 7:00 PM. These flights go via Frankfurt to Athens and Munich from Rome-SFO and are flown on Lufthansa which is my airline of choice for international trips.

What I figured out is by flying via JFK would add more time. I've flown during the winter where it took me 6 hours and 40 minutes to fly from JFK-SJC. I would much rather clear customs at SFO and even if my flight were to be delayed at least I'm 45 minutes from home vs 5 hours across country.

Customs at SFO takes about 45 minutes during the off season.

So paying the extra $75 is worth it.
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Old Oct 8, 2014 | 5:57 pm
  #5  
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I guess the moral of the story is that flights to Las Vegas are cheap even up to the date of the flight. I bought the ticket soon after I made this post, but the price basically continually dropped until the flight, even the morning of. Oh well.

Probably should have mentioned I was flying to Vegas it seems, I know this isn't true with other routes in general
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Old Oct 8, 2014 | 7:43 pm
  #6  
 
Join Date: Dec 2011
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I have always found ticket prices to go up as you edge nearer to the departure date, regardless of fare predictors...
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