I've read some rumours that OW want to have Malaysia Airlines or Thai joining (or maybe the other way round).

Do you want to see it happen (or not)? Why?

I wouldn't mind seeing one of them join to offer better services to SE Asia and compete with Singapore...

They can also offer better connections for routes from Europe into Aus and NZ.

On the other hand, I don't know how CX will feel about that though...

I don't see any business advantage being gained for QF, CX or BA out of allowing any of the South Asia carriers in. Between the 3 of them what major European business or leisure destination are not serviced on the Europe Asia routes. Between them offer fairly reasonable connection from Europe to Asia and SW Pacific.

Without the backing of the airlines mentioned above whose networks would be the main feeders I doubt it is a goer. Also with QF tie up with ANZ on the cards I doubt any more player in Asia or SWPacific will be seen.

Africa however is another story - SAA I understand would be a good strategic move for OW - would create a missing geographical link.




[This message has been edited by michaelblain (edited 03-12-2003).]

I'd have thought with Thai and/or Malaysia, QF and BA can afford to cut back on routes that require a stop over in SE Asia.

QF are already cutting back on routes like LHR-SYD and routes in the SE Asia region.

Of course, I don't know what the strategic goals for QF are. They may want to be a major player in the Europe to Asia/Aus market, then, yes, having Malaysia or Thai will be counter-productive.

As to SAA, I think you're right. However, I don't know how BA will feel about it, since they do have a bit of interest in that market. On the other hand, SAA are already a partner with QF...

[This message has been edited by Leumas (edited 03-12-2003).]

[This message has been edited by Leumas (edited 03-12-2003).]

(edited to remove entire reply)

[This message has been edited by og (edited 03-12-2003).]

QF was known to have courted MH once upon a time ago. But MH demanded too high a stake and being too high-handed over the overall BA/QF base in Singapore, QF basically gave up. (MH wanted BA/QF to move their Singapore hub to Kuala Lumpur)

That was a couple of years ago. It would certainly help the alliance to have another asian partner in Asia because CX simply does not have the operating clout to compete against the joint TG-SQ efforts of the STAR ALLIANCE.

MH also serves to more points in China than SQ. And there are also a few other places that it flies to where CX doesn't. MH effectively mirrors SQ's choice of destinations so it would be the perfect choice to compete against its longest competitor in the region.

I think the alliance would be better off trying to get a carrier from the Middle East like EK.Hope that happens and soon.

I agree that OW needs help in Asia. It's really hard to connect with just CX particularly with CX not giving miles on a OWE fare. While I hate JL, it would connect better with AA than another Asian line.

That's why I want MH to join oneWorld - to fight SQ head on in the SE Asia market.

While CX is based in HK, it is (or wants to be) a world airline, focusing on long-haul to Europe or North America. (Correct me if I'm wrong!) It may not have as much interest in doing relatively short flights.

Now QF is cutting back services, I think there's a space for oneWorld to look into.

Er well... CX's highest revenue and most profitable route is HKG-TPE which is a little over one hour's flying time and they do it about 15 times a day.

[This message has been edited by christep (edited 03-18-2003).]

I'm not saying CX don't do short-haul, but to me, they seem to focus on developing long-haul flights than developing short routes...

QF is only cutting back temporarily - like a responsible & PROFITABLE business/airline should when it expects demand to drop off for a short period.

However expect some changes in QF's Singapore hub over the next year or so as Australia and Singapore have just signed a free trade agreement ( not a FTA that excludes airline rights like some North American country) so I expect QF to start targetting a bit of SQ's easy pickings.

I agree with the QF argument - given the cosy relationship CX and QF have, there is little room for another asian carrier to fit in the middle. MH is not financially sound, nor do they have a management CX/QF/BA can trust. Thai on the otherhand has very strong ties to its founder SAS and extraordinary support from Lufthansa, just like Thailand and Germany have excellent business ties. That makes a oneworld approach very unlikely.

Don't forget that oneworld is essentially the union of BA and AA. BA+QF+CX+IB+FI are all linked beyond oneworld through investment, founding fathers, management ties etc. Any approval of another member means 'getting into the club' -- unlike star alliances which is just a loose network of opportunities to earn (increasingly diluted) miles. oneworld is an alliance depth, star one of breadth. Neither MH nor TG have the ressources (financial and managerial) to fit into the oneworld club).

My guess would be - for the next 5-10 years an expansion of CX and QF services around Asia, possibly the addition of KA and JL, LX if they don't go bankrupt again before. I don't see another member on the horizon.