This is a well worn topic on this forum but I really wonder if oneworld is interested in growing the alliance with new partners.

I read with dismay that Asiana are joining Star in the next six to twelve months. I just don't know how oneworld can let this happen when AA, CX and QF all have existing relationships with OZ. Granted that QF only codeshare with OZ, but both AA and CX are program partners with OZ.

Is it that oneworld is not actively pursuing new members, or is Star offering juicier incentives? Oneworld still claims a greater number of destinations served, but how long will that last if Star keep adding airlines?

Come on oneworld, get JAL on-board, maybe even snare NZ when QF invests. Do something!

Yes OW- DO Something!

I've been wondering about this for the past few months also. I've been surfing the web to find clues as to who may be the next airline to join. Can't find anything on the topic.

I'm also disappointed to see Asiana leave to Star Alliance. That leaves OW with NO access to S. Korea.

I am not sure what incentives are given to airlines, but could it be that OW is pushing airlines out? It appears to me that OW has no intention in growing the alliance.

It would be great to see JAL join OW.

Sorry to burst your bubble, but do not be surprised if in about 9 months a certain 1 world member bolts.

Anyone like to expand on which member this may be? I can't think of one which would necessarily benefit by leaving oneworld, unless of course they are moving to Star, but one would have to question the benefits of moving to an increasingly congested alliance.

I cannot say, someone I know that works for a oneworld airline told me this. That person also knows my persona here and is an infrequent FT'er, therefore I feel that I CAN say that one may be leaving, but not which one at this time. Sorry to seem like a tease, but I feel that I can say that it is in Europe.

Ok. That was a tease.

Really? I must have missed the announcement of CX cancelling their four flights per day!

From LAX.

I am sure your source is reliable and I would hope that the "major" European member does not leave Oneworld (if this is indeed the one you speak of), but I also recall many rumours to this effect in the media and on FT (long before I ever started posting). The demise of OW or at least a dropout of some members has long been prophecised. Only time will tell.


Cheers.

Not to start rumours, but although IB has hinted at it for a long time, BA has strengthened their ties with them. AY just hopped in bed more with AA, so unlikely they will bolt. That leaves EI. The airline is severely cash strapped, running a lot of redundant routes. Could be a cost cutting strategy.



[This message has been edited by Darren (edited 08-19-2002).]

I'm sure you mean EI, and if so, I doubt they would be the ones to leave. They are too intertwined with BA and generate too much revenue from the AA transatlantic codeshares. There is minimal cost to EI in being in OW. Also, I'm curious to know what you consider 'redundant' routes? They have a loss-making short haul route in to Europe, as have BA, but it would appear that they have been more aggressive than BA in maximizing their aircraft usage and bringing down fares. The only reason I could see them departing OW would be if they were to give up the full service model and take on Ryanair as a low cost carrier. Unlikely.

Sorry, fixed. Very late last night. I am mostly referring to the European routes. Since Dublin is close to London (relatively speaking, of course), most of the routes pass very close to London, making them redundant since without EI servicing the routes, BA could with minimal effort. That isn't the case when you have HEL-LED or MAD-FCO and you would otherwise need to connect through London.

This is all speculation on all of our parts, even hfly, since the only point it ceases to become speculation is the point it actually occurs. I remember a while back that rumors were floating around about some new airlines joining and some leaving that never materialized, and iirc, it was stated as being with some sort of authority.


[This message has been edited by Darren (edited 08-19-2002).]

OW seriously needs additional members - at least one asian (JAL), one middle eastern (El Al or Emirates) and one african (SAA). that would give it real good coverage. whether other european ones are needed im not sure - maybe an easter european one given Sky has CSA and Star will have LOT.



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QantasAllTheWay
OneWorld, All Around the World

I think Emirates would be a much better choice than El Al. BA already flies to TLV and AA pulled out the Pan Am route there. Emirates would increase the footprint in that part of the world and with its stake in SriLankan Air can create additional footprints in fastest growing Asia. BA may not like Emirates being there and Emirates biz model offers much lower J/F prices but hopefully they can work out the issues.

OW also needs a strong partner in China. Hopefully one of the codeshare partners will grow into an OW partner. CX may not be too happy but OW needs to lock in the Chinese market (right now I understand that the China market is very price sensitive and not very profitable).

These are just OW FF dreams but I doubt if there are any aggressive growth plans. They seem to be focused on deeper integration, cargo integration, etc. rather than member expansion. JAL definitely seems to prefer status quo rather than join OW.

I've heard many rumours about IB being the one to leave. I certainly hope not since I live in MAD. IB has expressed disapointment with the alliance and rumours have floated for a long time.

I've also heard that AA may cut its MIA-MAD flight. That would really sc**w me over. But again, this is all pure specualtion.

I sincerely doubt that the OW alliance will grow in the near term since all the airlines are too concerned with survival to think strategically. I don't agree with this short-termism but the airline industry isn't known for its vision

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