As stated in the title, this is wild speculation on my part. There isn't any definitive evidence that QF is leaving OW, but some of the recent signs seem unfavorable, and where there is smoke....

In any case, here are some examples of what I think are strained relationships between QF and some OW partners:

1. The QF/BA split on London-Australia routes
2. QF getting in bed with EK in a very, very big way (at the expense of BA)
3. QF being specifically excluded as a carrier on certain OW airline fares (one example: QF is specifically excluded on certain US-UAE AA fares, where the likes of BA, EY and even EK are allowed)
4. CX appearing to prefer partnering with NZ over QF on TPAC routes
5. The CX/JetStar Hong Kong brouhaha

This is just a list off the top of my head. Like I said, this isn't definitive evidence, but you have to admit that the recent trends don't look good as far as the QF/OW relationship. Curious to hear what y'all think.

AFAIK this topic has been discussed previously to a great extent. Do a search and see if you find anything.

Short answer is No.

I don't think QF is any closer to leaving OneWorld than it was when it partnered with BA on the Kangaroo Route.

That QF and CX don't get along is nothing new. Infact, CX is probably one OneWorld carrier that I have never seen operate a flight that has a QF code (and vice versa!)

Exclusion of QF on the fare you mention likely has more do do with routing restrictions than anything else. AA still codeshares on all transpac QF flights and a considerable number of domestic flights in Australia. Similarly, QF has a code on a considerable number of AA flights operating within the US. Even with the BA/QF JSA no longer existing, there are quite a few AU Domestic flights operating as BA codeshares, and I think both BA and QF flights between Sydney and Singapore have the other's code.

CX partners with NZ only on the NZ-HKG routes (I think!). I'm not sure if NZ's flights between AKL and North America also have a CX Code, and if they do, it only highlights the point above re. CX and QF "animosity" not being anything new.

Last, but not the least, OneWorld needs an Australian carrier, and if QF left, OneWorld would start courting Virgin Australia. IMHO, that alone is reason enough for QF to consider remaining in OneWorld, although I suspect QF will continue to remain a member of OneWorld for reasons beyond that one.

At this stage it seems CX will be more likely to leave than QF. This first surfaced in 2011 here:

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/planetalk...itch-oneworld/

And then today you got this:

http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/star-...96-cathay.html

It isn't a routing restriction in the specific example I cited. For example, on a DXB-DFW itinerary, the fare rules require the use of AA/BA/IB on the TATL portion on the itinerary, but are very liberal with the non-TATL portion. So, if we do DXB-LHR-DFW, the DXB-LHR portion can be on BA, EK, and many other carriers that serve the route. However, the fare rules specifically forbid the use of QF (which does fly DXB-LHR), among a few other non-OW airlines (which is understandable).

The rest of your points are valid though.

I once saw a QF-coded, CX operated HKG-BKK flight last year, but I can't find it now, possibly because of the EK alliance.

QF used to codeshare on CX flights from HKG to FCO and CDG until the EK tieup.

I can't see any real benefits for Qantas nor Cathay in leaving oneworld.
Partnerships with non oneworld members are part of airline's strategies, other alliance's member don't interfere with that.
My thought about oneworld is that its airlines prefer to see and cooperate in their similarities rather than focus on their diversities.

Most of the speculation about this peaked quite sometime back. As mentioned QF and CX haven't wanted to play together for some time. Some carriers being excluded from certain fares isn't unusual or new.

Also see the discussion in these threads:
http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/onewo...ght=qf+leaving
http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/qanta...ght=qf+leaving
http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/briti...ght=qf+leaving

You are right, QF did codeshare on those two routes, and I always wondered why those two and nothing else.

FCO only I believe. HKGCDG codeshare was with AF.

yeah QF choosing a non OW member to codeshare with was the first signs of non cooperation

anyways CX has every right to act the way it is, QF is not exactly lending out a friendly hand by launching Jetstar HK

CX and ANZ made it quite clear the relationship will expand beyond HK- over here airnz already is advertising flights to vietnam etc via CX along with having same fares etc

What will be more interesting is if CX uses it ANZ relationship to partner with VS

as for leaving QF will lose even more- they can't join skyteam because of VS cozy relationship and SQ is in star in QF hates them more than CX!

they have a good relationship with AA and want to expand to South America (LATAM is by far the best partner- Avianca does not even compare)

if that CX thing abt leaving is legit- it will be a big loss for OW ( esp corporate traveller- HKG is third largest corporate hub and is growing faster than London which is the largest and New York)

Correct. Qantas only codeshared to FCO on CX, while their codeshares with Air France were HKG-CDG and SIN-CDG.

http://www.ausbt.com.au/qantas-to-en...eshare-flights