For 2012, I'm thinking about switching from *G to fly OW.

I'm based out of Vancouver and my flight patterns are anticipated to be as follows:

3-4 x Vancouver to NYC in discount economy (currently AC or UA)
1 x Vancouver to Asia in Business (currently SQ through SFO)
3 x Vancouver to SFO or LAX in discount economy (currently AC or UA)
1 x overseas in economy (vacation)

Total: 40K-ish miles a year.

I was previously *G on AC and UA, and found that my upgrade rate was not great since I usually flew through the elite-heavy hubs.

My motivation for switching to OW is so I can fly direct YVR-JFK on CX - with superior lounges and hopefully the occasional upgrade.

Here are my issues...

AA: Since I fly discount economy on CX (YVR-JFK), I won't be able to accrue AA miles, so I don't think I'd reach Platinum level without those miles. I could fly AA more, but I don't really see that as any better than *A options.

QF: I would be OW Sapphire given my flight patterns, but I'd have to go on a serious Status Credit run on Jetstar while in Asia to obtain mandatory my 4 QF flights.

CX: I would only qualify for SL, but that would be enough for lounge access in YVR. Could I use the lounge in JFK as SL? Also, do you think I'd get the occasional upgrade on YVR-JFK? QF and AA also have much more generous bonus miles for elites.

Am I better off sticking with *A?

If upgrade is your primary aim, then no. Stick with Star.

You could route via SEA on AA to JFK and earn full miles; if you took the Platinum Challenge to Plat you'd also earn 500 EQM on all the YVR-SEA hops on Horizon. Assuming you flew BA to Europe (just guessing) then those miles would also count, so I could see hitting 50K EQM annually as not too big a reach (remember AS to SFO/LAX earns full AA miles.) Whether you want to go through the YVR-SEA-JFK hassle, as opposed to up-faring to an earning bucket on CX YVR-JFK, well, that's your call.

Why limit yourself to one CX flight YVR-JFK and a few AA ones out of SEA when you can have more options to fly AC/UA/CO? The CX flight is nice, but if this is your bread-and-butter run I think you'd be best served with UDU on UA/CO or eUpgrades on AC. It looks like your flying patterns are perfectly suited for *A, I wouldn't switch carriers/alliances just for the remote occasional chance of an op-up.

CX to JFK is not cheap to rely on for travel on the long term. Your best bet is AA ex-SEA.

I can't seem to find flights that are YVR-SEA-JFK on aa.com.

This doesn't seem to be a common routing for AA? Seems like most flights to New York are through DFW.

You won't because (a) AA doesn't codeshare on Horizon between YVR and SEA, and (b) there isn't a Horizon departure early enough in the morning to connect to SEA-JFK, nor one late enough to get to YVR after JFK-SEA arrives. You'd have to drive or come down/back the night before/morning after. (Yes, it's a PITA but then again, CX 888/889 aren't exactly all that friendly for timing either.)

If your motive to switch alliances is to utilize the CX nonstop, then it seems to me that you ought to look at what the extra cost would be to up-fare to an earning category, and set that against other costs that you'd incur, such as an annual membership in some lounge program, even Priority Pass.

Oneworld in our part of the country is miserable for west coast and most east-west connections; it relies almost exclusively on AS for regional services. If I were in your shoes I'd probably stay with *A, to be honest.

Or investigate AS, where you might find a decent "second" FF program, since AS has earn/burn relationships with most Oneworld and many Skyteam airlines. For example, AS has a through schedule from YVR to EWR on the morning flight. You'd earn full AA miles/points on that route due to AS' chummy relationship with AA.