Can OW survive without BA?
 

Just a little conjecture for a Sunday. With all the talk going on at the moment about the fragility of BA, coupled with all the negativity on various boards towards BA, let's just say that BA was to fold. Would OW remain effective as an alliance without it? Are IB and AY in a strong enough position to hold the alliance together as the European link. IMHO AA/BA/CX are the true base of the alliance. QF, LA, IB are the 2 strongest second tiers, with RJ, AY, JL, MA bringing up the rear in that order (again only my personal opinion). Take one of the "base" players out, will the alliance survive? Any thoughts?

Yes. BA is not going to fold. As long as you're considering unlikely hypotheticals, how 'bout "Let's just say that the laws of physics change and planes can't fly any more."

Her Majesty has more than enough money to keep BA aloft. :D

Chances of BA going under are about the same as Goldman Sachs doing the same.

You seem to forget that that's what they said about Lehman ! :eek:
BA is a pension deficit with wings. However if they were to fold, there would surely be a "NewBA" taking over.

Not sure IB, AY and MA would be strong enough to hold the alliance together in Europe.

However based the financial state of some of the OW carriers, the question could just as easily be either:

- "Can OW survive without AA?" or
- "Can OW survive without JL?"

And add IB,
revenue taken a big hit since the MAD-BCN route got competition from the train

I think losing AA in this instance would be probably worse than losing BA - at least there is some representation in Europe through IB/AY/MA, without AA there would be nothing in US/Canada.
JL - well it would be a blow, but not the end of the world or the alliance as such.

I can't see BA to go under in the near future. Pension liabilities can be dealt with externally, the state might bail them out. And BA usually is quite profitable.

Don't get me wrong - I sure hope BA survives, and am a believe that if something did happen a "NewBA" would rise quickly. as stated above this is just conjecture.

If Alitalia can survive, in any form, then surely BA can too.

The same would be unlikely though if AA didn't survive, speculation is that the next airline to fall will have to file for Ch.7 not Ch. 11. That would leave a big hole in OW to fill. US Airways perhaps enticed over from *A? *shudder*

Yeah US would really be about the only option and that is a a scary thought!

Not fatal but a big blow. AA know it will be negative (http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/ameri...-business.html) and there's speculation towards the end of this thread that AA's Asian codeshare network would be at stake and that Delta are cleverly manoevering here (http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/delta...ooing-jal.html)

Slightly OT, but some interesting analysis of BA's current situation:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1321032755&play=1

I guess we now will be calling it IBBA?

http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/briti...ed-12-nov.html