What are the odds? Taking bets!
#1
Original Poster
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 93
I recently completed our flight arrangements to take myself, Mrs. TokyoKid, and our new family member, BabyTokyoKid (she'll be 5 months old when we travel), from Nagoya to Boston this summer. I purchased two economy class tickets and used my WP miles to upgrade to WBC and first.
Alhough we were lucky to get the general dates we wanted (absolutely no complaints and am quite happy!), we wound up with a horrible round-trip itinerary especially since we'll have an infant with us. In each direction we have 4 flights! I've done NGO-NRT-DTW-BOS solo and found it tiring since I ususally don't sleep well the night before departing and then once onboard (economy or WBC). Anyway, here's our itinerary for July:
NGO-NRT-SEA-MSP-BOS
We arrive in Seattle around 9:30am. Our next flight doesn't depart until around 1:52am. I've booked a room for us at a hotel by the airport.
In August our return itinerary is:
BOS-DTW-SFO-NRT-NGO
We'll have no layovers like we will in Seattle.
Having flown NW many times to/from Japan, and knowing NWA, I am now wondering which flights will be cancelled due to a variety of reasons. What are the odds that all eight flights will actually fly? I'm taking bets! Usually I'm an optimistic person...but not when flying NW with 4 flights in each direction. If we actually make a round-trip without any cancelled flights, I'll be in need of some oxygen!!!
Alhough we were lucky to get the general dates we wanted (absolutely no complaints and am quite happy!), we wound up with a horrible round-trip itinerary especially since we'll have an infant with us. In each direction we have 4 flights! I've done NGO-NRT-DTW-BOS solo and found it tiring since I ususally don't sleep well the night before departing and then once onboard (economy or WBC). Anyway, here's our itinerary for July:
NGO-NRT-SEA-MSP-BOS
We arrive in Seattle around 9:30am. Our next flight doesn't depart until around 1:52am. I've booked a room for us at a hotel by the airport.
In August our return itinerary is:
BOS-DTW-SFO-NRT-NGO
We'll have no layovers like we will in Seattle.
Having flown NW many times to/from Japan, and knowing NWA, I am now wondering which flights will be cancelled due to a variety of reasons. What are the odds that all eight flights will actually fly? I'm taking bets! Usually I'm an optimistic person...but not when flying NW with 4 flights in each direction. If we actually make a round-trip without any cancelled flights, I'll be in need of some oxygen!!!
#2
FlyerTalk Evangelist




Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: MSP
Programs: Fallen Plats, ex-WN CP, DYKWIW; still PAL Premier Elite & Hilton Diamond
Posts: 25,429
It probably will be just fine. In the last couple years these came off without a hitch for us:
MSP-DTW-NRT-SIN-NRT-DTW-ORD-MSP
MSP-DTW-MEM-ATL-AMS-OSL-AMS-DTW-ORD-MSP
MSP-DTW-AMS-PRG-LJU-PRG-AMS-DTW-MSP
If things do go south, you can probably get the to reroute you more directly, if space is a available.
MSP-DTW-NRT-SIN-NRT-DTW-ORD-MSP
MSP-DTW-MEM-ATL-AMS-OSL-AMS-DTW-ORD-MSP
MSP-DTW-AMS-PRG-LJU-PRG-AMS-DTW-MSP
If things do go south, you can probably get the to reroute you more directly, if space is a available.
#3
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Round Lake, IL
Programs: UA GS, Marriott Titanium
Posts: 1,064
Pretty good. I successfully did:
ORD-DTW-PDX-YVR-AMS-OTP-CDG-ORD and
ORD-CDG-OTP-AMS-YVR-SEA-MSP-ORD
Both without a single cancellation or delay (yes, it was a combo of NW/AS/KL/AF, but it proves it can work)
ORD-DTW-PDX-YVR-AMS-OTP-CDG-ORD and
ORD-CDG-OTP-AMS-YVR-SEA-MSP-ORD
Both without a single cancellation or delay (yes, it was a combo of NW/AS/KL/AF, but it proves it can work)
#4




Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: DEN
Programs: UA 1KMM, DL Plt, AA, AS, HHonors Diamond, IHG Plat, Marriott Ttnm (LT PLT), Hertz PC, Enterprise Plt
Posts: 7,238
Anyway, if it's the red-eye, this combo isn't too bad, because you will sleep (guaranteed!) on the SEA-MSP sement.
I did a similar route: NRT-SEA-MSP-MSN, with a long layover in SEA. Visited friends while there, and fought very, very hard to stay awake! Then slept like a baby on the 4 hour flight to MSP. I don't remember take-off, that's for sure! And that was in coach.
Also, the 8-9 hour NRT-SEA flight seems a LOT shorter than the 12 hour NRT-DTW flight.
#5


Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Astoria, NY: LGA, JFK
Programs: Delta PM; Sheraton's Vistana BOD; SPG Gold
Posts: 2,036
First - Congratulations on the arrival of BabyTokyoKid!!! Children are a true blessing!
Second - I will actually answer your question (LOL) - 98% chance that all flights actually fly. The major considerations are weather and mechanical. Given the time of year you are flying, weather should be a non-problem. That leaves mechanical and who knows? Thus my 98% answer.
Second - I will actually answer your question (LOL) - 98% chance that all flights actually fly. The major considerations are weather and mechanical. Given the time of year you are flying, weather should be a non-problem. That leaves mechanical and who knows? Thus my 98% answer.
#6
Join Date: Mar 2004
Location: NYC, ROC, HNL, PEN, BKK, KUL, SIN (check out http://my.flightmemory.com/kkua)
Programs: DL Diamond charter member; 2 million miler (45% from NWA, 2MM achieved 5/2018)
Posts: 682
Considering you purchased an upgradable ticket, chances are your change fee is nominal (multiplied by 3). There won't be much fare difference to pay. I would keep checking in frequently for a more direct routing and pay the administrative fees.
Also, do consider a stopover in the west coast both directions. I once travelled with my 5 month old nephew and wouldn't subject everybody around me to a screaming tot on a DTW-NRT flight (or MSP-NRT for that matter). It's a more civilized way to travel leisurely.
Also, do consider a stopover in the west coast both directions. I once travelled with my 5 month old nephew and wouldn't subject everybody around me to a screaming tot on a DTW-NRT flight (or MSP-NRT for that matter). It's a more civilized way to travel leisurely.
#7

Join Date: Aug 2005
Programs: United 1K, Delta DM 1MM, Marriott Gold, IHG Diamond, Hertz PC, Europcar Elite VIP, Accor Gold
Posts: 145
Congratulations on your expanding family!
I know NW 86 arrives in Seattle around 9 am, but after commuting every weekend between SEA and the East Coast, I think the latest red-eye flight from SEA is 1 am. Usually in the summer there is a 12:50 am and a 1:00 am! (I've seen people board the wrong one many times.) There is usually a 3:00 pm, 4:00 pm and sometimes a 6:00 pm departure from SEA to MSP.
So, I think you're looking at a 9:30 am arrival and a 2:00 pm departure. Given immigration, customs and baggage recheck at SEA S Terminal, even if you arrive at SEA early, you most likely will not leave the S Terminal for the main terminal via the train until 10:15 am at the earliest. (This does not give you a lot of time to exit, leave the airport and return for a 2:00 pm flight.) Then again, the SEA WC (which closes at 2:00 pm) is not the best place to be stranded for several hours, either.
You should note when you depart the airport how long the security line (even the Elite/FC line) is for TSA. In the summer, even the "fast" line can take well over 30 minutes midday.
Good luck, and keep looking for decently-priced alternatives involving fewer segments.
I know NW 86 arrives in Seattle around 9 am, but after commuting every weekend between SEA and the East Coast, I think the latest red-eye flight from SEA is 1 am. Usually in the summer there is a 12:50 am and a 1:00 am! (I've seen people board the wrong one many times.) There is usually a 3:00 pm, 4:00 pm and sometimes a 6:00 pm departure from SEA to MSP.
So, I think you're looking at a 9:30 am arrival and a 2:00 pm departure. Given immigration, customs and baggage recheck at SEA S Terminal, even if you arrive at SEA early, you most likely will not leave the S Terminal for the main terminal via the train until 10:15 am at the earliest. (This does not give you a lot of time to exit, leave the airport and return for a 2:00 pm flight.) Then again, the SEA WC (which closes at 2:00 pm) is not the best place to be stranded for several hours, either.
You should note when you depart the airport how long the security line (even the Elite/FC line) is for TSA. In the summer, even the "fast" line can take well over 30 minutes midday.
Good luck, and keep looking for decently-priced alternatives involving fewer segments.
Last edited by LUMRS; Feb 29, 2008 at 11:44 pm
#8
Join Date: Jul 2002
Location: TPA, PHL
Programs: NW: SE & WC
Posts: 2,136
Flights presently showing for Jul08:
NW154 SEA 0052 MSP 0600
NW804 SEA 0700 MSP 1214
NW158 SEA 0905 MSP 1423
NW160 SEA 1030 MSP 1544
NW170 SEA 1210 MSP 1728
NW164 SEA 1455 MSP 2007
NW162 SEA 1550 MSP 2111
NW154 SEA 0052 MSP 0600
NW804 SEA 0700 MSP 1214
NW158 SEA 0905 MSP 1423
NW160 SEA 1030 MSP 1544
NW170 SEA 1210 MSP 1728
NW164 SEA 1455 MSP 2007
NW162 SEA 1550 MSP 2111
#9
Original Poster
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 93
Thank you all for your helpful advice and congrats. As of today, Sunday, BabyTokyoKid is 1 month old!
The flight from NRT will arrive in SEA at 9:30am and will depart the following morning at 12:52. This is fine with us since we're concerned about the affects of cabin pressure on little BabyTokyoKid's ears. We'll use the time to relax, sleep, and regain our strength at a hotel by the airport. We won't be going into downtown Seattle (we've been there before. Great city!!).
Unfortunately, I wasn't able to get NW to grant us a layover in SFO or NRT on the return flight from BOS unless we payed a huge amount of money in the way of $3,000 USD (I forgot the actual amount. It was so outrageous that it wasn't even an option). Unless there's something I might have overlooked and not asked the NW agent while on the telephone, we're just going to have to fly straight through to NGO in August.
We're in no particular rush to return to NGO, so a layover in SFO or NRT would be very nice indeed.
(In August, on our return itinerary, we'll be arriving NRT about 5pm and won't arrive in NGO until 8pm. This means, after long, long flights, we'll reach home around 9:30pm or 10pm) Any advice on how to get a layover in SFO (preferred) or NRT would be greatly appreciated!
Cheers!
The flight from NRT will arrive in SEA at 9:30am and will depart the following morning at 12:52. This is fine with us since we're concerned about the affects of cabin pressure on little BabyTokyoKid's ears. We'll use the time to relax, sleep, and regain our strength at a hotel by the airport. We won't be going into downtown Seattle (we've been there before. Great city!!).
Unfortunately, I wasn't able to get NW to grant us a layover in SFO or NRT on the return flight from BOS unless we payed a huge amount of money in the way of $3,000 USD (I forgot the actual amount. It was so outrageous that it wasn't even an option). Unless there's something I might have overlooked and not asked the NW agent while on the telephone, we're just going to have to fly straight through to NGO in August.
We're in no particular rush to return to NGO, so a layover in SFO or NRT would be very nice indeed.
(In August, on our return itinerary, we'll be arriving NRT about 5pm and won't arrive in NGO until 8pm. This means, after long, long flights, we'll reach home around 9:30pm or 10pm) Any advice on how to get a layover in SFO (preferred) or NRT would be greatly appreciated!
Cheers!
Last edited by TokyoKid; Mar 1, 2008 at 7:04 pm Reason: added aditional info
#10

Join Date: Aug 2005
Programs: United 1K, Delta DM 1MM, Marriott Gold, IHG Diamond, Hertz PC, Europcar Elite VIP, Accor Gold
Posts: 145
Layover in SFO or NRT
SFO-NRT in August should be a very full flight. They might easily need 3 seats. I would get to the gate as soon as you arrive in SFO (if the gate is open for the flight) and make yourself known to the gate agents and tell them you are a party of 3 in WBC and are willing to volunteer your seats, if needed. I have done this in the past. You cannot do it at the lounge -- you have to do it at the gate. I have taken VDB compensation and rebooked on next day flights more times than I care to remember.
VDB, though, is last-minute and there are no guarantees. I would call NW and explain that you are traveling with an infant and see if they can help you out. I am not sure what the specific rules are, but if your child is having difficulty with the pressure changes, they might be able to accommodate an unscheduled stop-over. Of course, this is last-minute, too, and is contingent upon available space on later flights, etc.
VDB, though, is last-minute and there are no guarantees. I would call NW and explain that you are traveling with an infant and see if they can help you out. I am not sure what the specific rules are, but if your child is having difficulty with the pressure changes, they might be able to accommodate an unscheduled stop-over. Of course, this is last-minute, too, and is contingent upon available space on later flights, etc.
#11
Join Date: Jul 2002
Location: TPA, PHL
Programs: NW: SE & WC
Posts: 2,136
Unfortunately, I wasn't able to get NW to grant us a layover in SFO or NRT on the return flight from BOS unless we payed a huge amount of money in the way of $3,000 USD (I forgot the actual amount. It was so outrageous that it wasn't even an option). Unless there's something I might have overlooked and not asked the NW agent while on the telephone, we're just going to have to fly straight through to NGO in August.
We're in no particular rush to return to NGO, so a layover in SFO or NRT would be very nice indeed.
(In August, on our return itinerary, we'll be arriving NRT about 5pm and won't arrive in NGO until 8pm. This means, after long, long flights, we'll reach home around 9:30pm or 10pm) Any advice on how to get a layover in SFO (preferred) or NRT would be greatly appreciated!
Cheers!
We're in no particular rush to return to NGO, so a layover in SFO or NRT would be very nice indeed.
(In August, on our return itinerary, we'll be arriving NRT about 5pm and won't arrive in NGO until 8pm. This means, after long, long flights, we'll reach home around 9:30pm or 10pm) Any advice on how to get a layover in SFO (preferred) or NRT would be greatly appreciated!
Cheers!
Last edited by ed1; Mar 1, 2008 at 7:28 pm
#12
Join Date: Jul 2002
Location: TPA, PHL
Programs: NW: SE & WC
Posts: 2,136
SFO-NRT in August should be a very full flight. They might easily need 3 seats. I would get to the gate as soon as you arrive in SFO (if the gate is open for the flight) and make yourself known to the gate agents and tell them you are a party of 3 in WBC and are willing to volunteer your seats, if needed. I have done this in the past. You cannot do it at the lounge -- you have to do it at the gate. I have taken VDB compensation and rebooked on next day flights more times than I care to remember.
VDB, though, is last-minute and there are no guarantees. I would call NW and explain that you are traveling with an infant and see if they can help you out. I am not sure what the specific rules are, but if your child is having difficulty with the pressure changes, they might be able to accommodate an unscheduled stop-over. Of course, this is last-minute, too, and is contingent upon available space on later flights, etc.
VDB, though, is last-minute and there are no guarantees. I would call NW and explain that you are traveling with an infant and see if they can help you out. I am not sure what the specific rules are, but if your child is having difficulty with the pressure changes, they might be able to accommodate an unscheduled stop-over. Of course, this is last-minute, too, and is contingent upon available space on later flights, etc.
#13
Original Poster
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 93
I'm an Elite member and did call the Elite number. Even though I spent over one hour on the telephone when making the reservations, I was told I couldn't stop over in SFO or NRT. I'll try, though, on the day we fly to the US to change our return itinerary upon check-in. Perhaps I'll have better luck there and in WC. I also plan on calling the WP Elite number 2-3 more times before our departure date to see if anything can be changed. I can be a persistent pain in the rear! Pleasant but persistent.
Question: What's a VDB?
Question: What's a VDB?
#14
Join Date: Jul 2002
Location: TPA, PHL
Programs: NW: SE & WC
Posts: 2,136
I'm an Elite member and did call the Elite number. Even though I spent over one hour on the telephone when making the reservations, I was told I couldn't stop over in SFO or NRT. I'll try, though, on the day we fly to the US to change our return itinerary upon check-in. Perhaps I'll have better luck there and in WC. I also plan on calling the WP Elite number 2-3 more times before our departure date to see if anything can be changed. I can be a persistent pain in the rear! Pleasant but persistent.
Question: What's a VDB?
Question: What's a VDB?
Tell them you'd like a longer legal layover (which on an international itinerary should be less than 24 hrs., but on a domestic itinerary is less than four hours), preferably in SFO. Another stopover may break the fare but a layover doesn't. There would have to be availability and you may have to pay a change fee, if your fare allows changes without reticketing. If your fare doesn't allow changes without reticketing, ask what changes can be made to the return, once you've completed the outbound (and how much it costs). Usually changes to the return are easier/less expensive and not require reticketing.

