So I am trying to assess whether or not there are any good bump chances tomorrow going IND-MSP-DEN. Using KVS, I can see:

NW 497 IND MSP P1 F0 Y1 B0 M0 H0 Q0 V0 L0 T0 K0
NW 549 MSP DEN P2 F2 Y0 B0 M0 H0 Q0 V0 L0 T0 K0

Yesterday when I called and NW497 was at Y3 they said it was oversold by one, today, at Y1, they say its not oversold. NW549 has been an oversell for a while, but no one can tell by how many (which I assume is normal procedure)...

Anyone know what might account for this?

Cancels?

According to the #s, they've sold two more seats though...

That assumes the authorization levels stay constant. They could have tightened down the inventory.

Also, some lazy agents don't like to check, so if they see Y > 0, they say it's not over just to get you off the phone.

Finally, the term "oversold" or "oversell" refers to actually needing volunteers (# pax checked in > # seats). From a technical sense, they won't know if the flight is oversold until minutes before departure. You should be asking if the flight is "overbooked."

I always keep my eyes peeled for overbooked flights and my experience is that . . .
I think different gate agents or even phone reservationists look at different numbers on their computers - some of which may include, or NOT include - non-rev's, standbys etc.
One time, I was told that a flight was overbooked. I offered to volunteer. She said "GREAT"!! Then another agent walked up. The first one told the second one that she had a volunteer since the flight was overbooked. The second agaent told the first one: "this pax is on the later flight and is on stand-by for this flight. We don't bump people off for stand by's." It turns out that the original agent who told me that the flight was overbooked was a new agent, just out of training, and wasn't quite familiar with all of the procedures yet! It looked overbooked to her!!!! Oh well!!