Hey, this may be a dumb question, but I figured that I'd ask the experts to quell my curiosity. A bunch of friends are going down to Acapulco for the big college spring break week (3/18-3/25). I didn't really want to go but I figured it was the peak time for overbooking. I had 35,000 NWA miles left so I decided to join them, hoping to get bumped along the way. I'll be flying out of JFK on Friday 3/18 , connecting in Houston and Mexico city. Anyone have enough experience to let me know what the likelihood of getting bumped (or needing volunteers) during this time is?

A: You're flying Co, not NW.
B: You haven't given use a flight number.
C: You haven't told us how full your flight is at present.
D: Your flight is more than a month away, so how can anyone predict how full it will be at departure?

This is my actual itinerary. The departing flight from JFK had only 5-8 seats left in the coach cabin when I booked 30 days ago. The departing flight from Acapulco to Houston was the same. I wasn't able to find the seat availability for the other two legs.


Date: March 18 Flight: DL 279

Departs: New York-John F. Kennedy Int'l, NY (JFK) at 10:01AM

Arrives: Mexico City, Mexico (MEX) at 2:24PM

Class of Service: (N) Seat: not assigned

Flight Duration: 5 hours 23 minutes Miles: 2086

Meal Service: Lunch Aircraft: Boeing 757-200



Date: March 18 Flight: AM 307

Departs: Mexico City, Mexico (MEX) at 7:15PM

Arrives: Acapulco-Alvarez Int'l, Mexico (ACA) at 8:05PM

Class of Service: (U) Seat: not assigned

Flight Duration: 50 minutes Miles: 191

Meal Service: Brunch Aircraft: M80



Date: March 24 Flight: CO 885

Departs: Acapulco-Alvarez Int'l, Mexico (ACA) at 3:10PM

Arrives: Houston-George Bush Intercontinental, TX (IAH) at 5:44PM

Class of Service: (G) Seat: 11-A

Flight Duration: 2 hours 34 minutes Miles: 945

Meal Service: None Aircraft: 739



Date: March 24 Flight: CO 1638

Departs: Houston-George Bush Intercontinental, TX (IAH) at 8:40PM

Arrives: New York-La Guardia, NY (LGA) at 12:49AM on March 25

Class of Service: (G) Seat: 14-F

Flight Duration: 3 hours 9 minutes Miles: 1415

Meal Service: Snack Aircraft: 735

Not exactly:
Delta Airlines
Flight: 279
Departs
New York (JFK)
March 18
10:01 am Arrives
Mexico City (MEX)
March 18
2:24 pm Notes
Cabin class: C9 D9 I9 Y9 B9 M9 H9 Q9 K9 L9 U9 T9
Meal:
Distance: 2090 mi
Stops: non-stop
Flight Time: 5:23
Boeing 757-200

Generally, it is impossible to tell in advance how likely you are to get bumped. The best thing to do is be the first one to Volunteer at each station. Once you get into connecting flights there are more variables than how many seats are sold. You have the inbound passengers on any number of flgihts that could be delayed for any number of reasons.

Upgrade Me's, first point is very valid in that none of your Flights are on NW metal. It may have been booked with NW miles, but none of your flights are on NW metal. NW is very good at estimating how many people will show up and seem to bump less than other airlines.

I would suggest you do a search on the CO boards and see past history for bumps. I don't think posting it on the CO forum would do you much good either, because there are so many variables that not even the airline can predict in advance how many people will show up.