Now with the Discover It Miles card giving you 3% cashback the first year, it seems that most of the times miles aren't worth all that much in redemption for business class. Especially with the cheap business fares that come about (and are much easier to find than award flights).

For example, Delta charges 70,000 miles. That would be $2100 for a one-way ticket, which is obtainable for business if you get a promo fare.
First, of course, is ridiculously priced, and so even using more miles it is still worth it.

But it seems the game is changing.

If you only earn via CC then cash-back has been the smarter move for most Y rewards for a while now. But if you have a mixed earn profile that's not quite so clear.

Also, basing goals on a promo rate is probably not a good long-term strategy.

Y nonstops can be ridiculous, especially last minute

F will always be value, some will always prefer quantity
(same with most expensive hotels vs least expensive)

Only if you believe that the value is derived based on the list price of the product rather than the utility realized. :-:

But having any goals for points is a bad strategy. Look at all the people who stocked up on AA miles, or AS miles?

Isn't value derived based on how much other people think you paid for it? =P

those discussions are pointless (heh) because anyone can say 'i assign zero value to everything that exists'

Three major assumptions you make, all of which I think are false, that undermine your conclusion. First and foremost, promo fares are not normal. They are often airport-specific and are for sale for a short duration for a small window of travel dates. If you're searching to book a flight during that window, yes, they are easier to find than award seats. But all else equal, if you want a specific itinerary, say, BNA-VIE, I would posit you're much more likely to find award seats than promo J ticket. Perhaps I've had better luck with award seats than others.

Second, 3% cashback earn is not sustainable. As you point out, that is a first year promo for Discover. Some can get 2.625% on an ongoing basis, but most are limited to 2.1%.

Finally, you assume that the only source of points/miles is 1x spending. 70k Delta miles can be earned in many ways that do not forfeit $2100 in cashback. A Delta Platinum Amex sign up bonus, for example. Even without sign up bonuses, one can earn 70k miles via bonus categories that have a lower opportunity cost than 1x spend.

Yeah, promo J fares can make miles less appealing if you find a promo fare that works for what you want/need, but they certainly don't make J awards value-less.

were they talking about incremental value?

there are also occasionally ridiculously good F sales

I have no desire to carry a Discover card.

Although the game is changing, I still get good enough value from Starwood to use the SPG Amex as my primary spend. I expect this to change on January 1, 2018, but for now that's still better than any available cashback card for my uses.

As for frequent-flier miles, I have lots of good redemptions in Y. Plenty of examples from the past 3 years where I've gotten between 2 and 3 cents per mile for a normal coach redemption. Especially beneficial when I'm redeeming for family members for whom I don't care about EQM. Since most of my award trips these days involve bringing kids and/or other family members along, we're almost always looking at Y. The miles are still quite useful to us for U.S./Canada transborder trips, peak summer trips to Europe, and even the occasional oddball U.S. domestic route.

When my wife and I have a getaway by ourselves where we fly F or J, I sometimes chuckle at the paid fare, but don't really obsess about. I just ask myself if the seat is worth more than 2 cents per mile I'm redeeming for it. For any decent long-haul widebody trip, the answer is probably yes, so I book it.

I haven't been on the razor's edge of a status tier in the past couple years: that's the only other thing that could affect my buy vs. redeem decision.

Also depends somewhat on where you want to go. I don't see many business or F class sales for flights to Asia ex USA. Of course there are often cheap fares for going the other direction but then you still need to position.

And it depends on how much you're spending on the Discover card. As noted, bonus spend categories, UR or airlines site "mall" bonuses, sign up bonuses, etc can help you accrue a ton of miles for not a lot of spend.

Personally I've never had a problem finding the award seats that I want. It takes some planning and flexibility sometimes though.

And what will you do the second year when it falls to 1%? Do you have enough spend in your first year to accumulate enough cashback to last you for years?

Funny you should mention Delta and 70000 miles. Amex just started a limited-time offer for either the personal or business Delta Platinum Amex with 70000 miles for $3000 in spend in the first 3 months, with a $195 annual fee. $3000 spend on that Discover It Miles card in the first year would get a whopping $90 in cashback. So for $285 (the annual fee plus the cashback you don't earn) you'd get 70000 miles. How in the world is this not a better value than using the Discover It Miles card?

See, that's the big difference: With pure cashback cards, you can't get bonuses of this size (with the one historical exception of Capital One with their 100,000 [fake] miles "status match" promo fiasco). With real airline miles cards and real hotel points cards (and even some transferable points cards), you can.

Of course cards with promo opening offers are great, depending on whether or not you can get it.
Otherwise you have to plan your spend, which card to use to get which points. And flexibility in Y is just so much better with cash, particularly if you want to fly direct.

I have used miles a few times to affordably travel at very short notice (2-3h) for a very very urgent need. Miles are awesome reserve to have. Using miles to maximise the consumption of food and drinks in various lounge pleasure temples and in luxury suites is for me a rather bizzare use of miles. To each their own.

That is because you do not fly United (forget what otuer airline has that close-in fee)