A frequent flyer mile is finally worth more than a penny
#16
Join Date: Feb 1999
Location: San Jose, California, USA
Programs: AS 100K, UA MM, AA MM, IC Plat Amb, Marriott Gold, Hilton Gold, Hyatt Explorist
Posts: 3,146
I disagree with those who base the value only on what you would pay for the ticket. I redeem miles only for C/F awards. (I can afford to pay for most coach tickets, so there's no "value" in that for me.) The amount of money I am willing to pay for a C/F ticket rarely intersects with the cost of that ticket. So without using miles, I would never be able to travel in international F at all!
So the fact that I might only be willing to pay $2,000 for that international F ticket doesn't mean that that's the value. The value is increased by the fact that I can't/won't pay more, so I am getting something I otherwise couldn't afford or wouldn't otherwise pay for.
This is part of the "indescribable value" that jrmcrm mentions above. You can't ignore that just because it's hard to calculate.
So the fact that I might only be willing to pay $2,000 for that international F ticket doesn't mean that that's the value. The value is increased by the fact that I can't/won't pay more, so I am getting something I otherwise couldn't afford or wouldn't otherwise pay for.
This is part of the "indescribable value" that jrmcrm mentions above. You can't ignore that just because it's hard to calculate.
#18
Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: Land of the parrots and parrotheads
Programs: Several dozen
Posts: 4,820
Yes, in fact I am playing Ping Pong transferring miles between 5 accounts. And at less than 1.1 because, for example, you can have one account with 90k send 3 30k transfers to 3 different accounts for the same one-time $30 fee.
Of course you are not going to redeem SkyPesos for domestic flights, but rather flights like transatlantic hops that go for say 60k SkyPesos when Kayak's lowest fare is say 1.5k Dollars.
Of course you are not going to redeem SkyPesos for domestic flights, but rather flights like transatlantic hops that go for say 60k SkyPesos when Kayak's lowest fare is say 1.5k Dollars.
#19
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 3,609
Yes, in fact I am playing Ping Pong transferring miles between 5 accounts. And at less than 1.1 because, for example, you can have one account with 90k send 3 30k transfers to 3 different accounts for the same one-time $30 fee.
Of course you are not going to redeem SkyPesos for domestic flights, but rather flights like transatlantic hops that go for say 60k SkyPesos when Kayak's lowest fare is say 1.5k Dollars.
Of course you are not going to redeem SkyPesos for domestic flights, but rather flights like transatlantic hops that go for say 60k SkyPesos when Kayak's lowest fare is say 1.5k Dollars.
#20
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: San Francisco, CA
Programs: United 2P, AA Gold, Hyatt Platinum, Hilton Gold
Posts: 173
#21
Join Date: Jul 2011
Programs: UA 2P
Posts: 53
Wow, so does this mean that you max out the number of miles you're allowed to purchase directly from the airlines? They can generally be had for 2.5-3 cents/mile (much less in some cases, Delta and US Airways for example). Otherwise, why wouldn't you redeem at this level?
#22
Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: Kobe, Japan
Programs: Bonvoy Platinum, IHG Diamond, Hyatt Discoverist
Posts: 1,538
I fly international coach and generally use the 2 cents rule.
Though recent changes (*A and SkyPesos) have devalued some of the NE to SE Asia routes to the point it is better to buy. Going from Japan to NE Asia, Micronesia, HNL, N. America/Europe is still around 2cpm.
Though recent changes (*A and SkyPesos) have devalued some of the NE to SE Asia routes to the point it is better to buy. Going from Japan to NE Asia, Micronesia, HNL, N. America/Europe is still around 2cpm.
#23
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Original Poster
Join Date: Mar 2000
Posts: 17,435
Actually, no. "Ticket brokers" have been pretty consistent at about 2.2 cents per mile over the past two decades in the "gray" market, so I don't think you can say that the 1 cent valuation was "widely held." And 25k domestic awards generally are only done last minute, with much higher fares or to gain some flexibility in date/time changes, so much higher values are seen there.
BTW, do such brokers exist these days? You sure don't hear much about them.
Personally, I have a lot of Skymiles because I find them harder to spend than my other ff miles. So while they may be worth 1.1 cent, given the trouble I have redeeming them, I'd only want to fork over my hard earned cash if I could pick them up at a discount. I wouldn't be interested in paying "fair value" unless I had a specific use and great confidence that the award seats would be available. Otherwise, to store them for future use, I would be willing to buy "unlimited" Skypesos at approximately .7 cpm. I'd guess many flyertalkers would agree to similar terms.
#24
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: SJC/SFO
Programs: WN A+ CP, UA 1MM/*A Gold, Mar LT Tit, IHG Plat, HH Dia
Posts: 6,286
I figure that redeeming miles for coach tickets usually returns a value in the range of 1.6 - 2.0 cpm. Redemption fees, fuel surcharges, and other garbage fees can seriously diminish these values.
I find that using points for premium class tickets on international flights returns nominal values in the range of 3.0 - 6.0 cpm. I emphasize nominal because I consider them overpriced. For example, business tickets are often 3-4x the cost of coach, but I value them at only 2x coach. Taking that into account, their value to me is 1.5 - 4cpm.
On the whole I value airline miles at 1.8cpm when making choices about exchanging points between systems or comparing options for bonuses.
I find that using points for premium class tickets on international flights returns nominal values in the range of 3.0 - 6.0 cpm. I emphasize nominal because I consider them overpriced. For example, business tickets are often 3-4x the cost of coach, but I value them at only 2x coach. Taking that into account, their value to me is 1.5 - 4cpm.
On the whole I value airline miles at 1.8cpm when making choices about exchanging points between systems or comparing options for bonuses.
#25
Join Date: Aug 2008
Programs: HHonors Gold, Marriott Lifetime Gold, IHG Gold, OZ*G, AA Gold, AS MVP
Posts: 1,874
When redeeming on UA for an NH China-Japan award it's always been more than 1cpm for me; usually 2-3 if we just go by Y redemptions (for example, a 20k award is $600 or so during certain time periods).
#27
Join Date: Nov 2010
Location: NYC
Programs: AA EXP, Hilton GLD, Marriott Plat, NEXUS/GE
Posts: 2,872
While I get a bit of a kick out of burning miles at a face value substantially more than say, 2cpm, I understand that I wouldn't normally buy myself round-the-world tickets in first. Consequently, my RDM valuation is mostly set at a bit higher than what I can do the ticket for in Y (but a bit higher for the comfort of J/F and for the flexibility of stopovers, etc. that revenue tickets might not provide [at least for free])
#28
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: PHX
Posts: 4,787
You're doing better on coach than I can usually do except in the rarest of instances. But when I figure out my cpm for a coach redemption, I also discount it by assigning a proportionate value to the miles I did not earn for the flight since I'm on an award ticket. If you're doing that and getting 1.6 to 2.0 cpm, that's really impressive.
#29
Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: SLC
Posts: 392
This is a critical point to understand. Miles may be quite valuable (up to 10 cents each) today, but can be devalued very quickly...kind of like the currency of an unstable government. The incentive, then, is to use the miles quickly.
#30
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: IAD
Programs: UA Premier Platinum; Marriott Platinum
Posts: 441
IAD-DFW in Y for 25K (x4)
TRI-PBI in Y for 25K (x4)
IAD-FCO in C for 110K (x2)
Some people would look at that and say I'm "wasting" miles. But those are the trips I wanted to take and I took them when I wanted.