How do you value a C or F redemption?
#1
Original Poster
Join Date: Jan 2009
Location: DEN
Programs: United 1K|SPG Plat
Posts: 265
How do you value a C or F redemption?
I'm looking at a trip DEN-EZE in May on UA in C. I can get the ticket for 100,000 miles, I checked and there is availability in XC. I could also spend $1,500 + 2 SWUs and get the same seats on the same flights. Buying into C costs $7,000.
Are the miles worth $.07 each, $.015 each, or somewhere in between?
My floor for a redemption is $.02 each. This math is so simple for XY, this is my first time trying to redeem in C or F. Any thoughts on how I should value the award? Thanks!
Are the miles worth $.07 each, $.015 each, or somewhere in between?
My floor for a redemption is $.02 each. This math is so simple for XY, this is my first time trying to redeem in C or F. Any thoughts on how I should value the award? Thanks!
#3

Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: Tucson, Arizona
Programs: Hyatt Globalist; Marriott Gold
Posts: 514
Buying directly into C makes almost no sense here - 2 SWUs are not $5500. The two realistic options are:
1) Buy Y, use 2 SWU. This costs $1500. You gain roughly 12K miles for the flight. If you value SWUs at the "going rate" Coupon Connection estimate of 20K miles each, you spend 40K miles via SWU and your net cost is $1500 and 28K miles.
2) Spend 100K miles and some taxes and fees; I'll estimate $100.
The difference between the two options is 72,000 miles or $1400. That makes each of your additional miles worth about 2 cents. That's close to your cutoff, so I don't know what you should do. I would likely use SWUs, myself.
One significant factor here is if you have other uses for SWUs before they expire. If they were going to go to waste (or something small like ORD-IAD), they're worth fewer miles and the SWU looks more attractive. If they would instead go to something like ORD-PEK on new C, they'd be worth more and straight C looks better.
1) Buy Y, use 2 SWU. This costs $1500. You gain roughly 12K miles for the flight. If you value SWUs at the "going rate" Coupon Connection estimate of 20K miles each, you spend 40K miles via SWU and your net cost is $1500 and 28K miles.
2) Spend 100K miles and some taxes and fees; I'll estimate $100.
The difference between the two options is 72,000 miles or $1400. That makes each of your additional miles worth about 2 cents. That's close to your cutoff, so I don't know what you should do. I would likely use SWUs, myself.
One significant factor here is if you have other uses for SWUs before they expire. If they were going to go to waste (or something small like ORD-IAD), they're worth fewer miles and the SWU looks more attractive. If they would instead go to something like ORD-PEK on new C, they'd be worth more and straight C looks better.
#4


Join Date: May 2000
Location: Houston, TX, USA
Programs: UA Platinum, AA Lifetime Platinum, DL Platinum, Honors Diamond, Bonvoy Ambassador, Hertz Platinum
Posts: 8,179
Another factor is what your future outlook for miles usage is vs your estimated earnings. For example, some people have a rule that they don't ever want to fly long-haul international routes in coach, so they either need to a) upgrade with miles, b) upgrade with SWUs, or c) redeem miles for an award ticket (I'm assuming that purchasing a full-fare ticket is off the table). Depending on how fast you earn miles vs how fast you plan to use them, you may never want to redeem for an award ticket, lest you run out of miles.
Another factor is elite qualification. Will the miles earned for an upgraded coach ticket put you over the threshold into the next elite level after you tally the rest of your year's travel?
If you factor everything in, I think that in most situations, it makes sense to upgrade rather than redeem for an award ticket. And, if you have SWU's, it makes sense to use them rather than hoard. The only exceptions to these rules tend to be in situations where a) elite status doesn't matter, AND b) you earn miles quicker than you can spend them on award travel.
Another factor is elite qualification. Will the miles earned for an upgraded coach ticket put you over the threshold into the next elite level after you tally the rest of your year's travel?
If you factor everything in, I think that in most situations, it makes sense to upgrade rather than redeem for an award ticket. And, if you have SWU's, it makes sense to use them rather than hoard. The only exceptions to these rules tend to be in situations where a) elite status doesn't matter, AND b) you earn miles quicker than you can spend them on award travel.
#5




Join Date: Nov 2008
Location: Home Airports: CAE/CLT
Programs: Hyatt Globalist, National Executive
Posts: 5,460
Interesting thread for someone who is still really new to all this.
I am struggling with paying for a TATL with miles or cash/SWUs.
Never had these issues when I was a non-elite flying in steerage.
I am struggling with paying for a TATL with miles or cash/SWUs.
Never had these issues when I was a non-elite flying in steerage.
#6
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: GSP
Posts: 175
For me, 100k RDM from MR's would run slightly over $2,000 USD.
Given the options you have presented, I would do cash + SWU. I would prefer to save the miles for a multi-continent / RTW airline alliance reward ticket, especially considering SWU's are not very useful on such ticketing.
Given the options you have presented, I would do cash + SWU. I would prefer to save the miles for a multi-continent / RTW airline alliance reward ticket, especially considering SWU's are not very useful on such ticketing.
#7
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: NYC
Posts: 204
I would also be inclined to use the SWU's in such a situation, but it also depends on your own financial situation. Do you plan on making another intercontinental journey in the near future that would let you use those 100K miles to their fullest extent?
Moreover, I strongly suspect that this year will be (economically) quite difficult, and as the airline industry's health is closely tied to GDP growth, it is likely that they will all take measures to reduce liabilities from their balance sheets; we could thus see significant mileage devaluation over the next 12-24 months.
Just something to keep in mind.
Moreover, I strongly suspect that this year will be (economically) quite difficult, and as the airline industry's health is closely tied to GDP growth, it is likely that they will all take measures to reduce liabilities from their balance sheets; we could thus see significant mileage devaluation over the next 12-24 months.
Just something to keep in mind.
#8




Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: SJU
Posts: 1,542
Moreover, I strongly suspect that this year will be (economically) quite difficult, and as the airline industry's health is closely tied to GDP growth, it is likely that they will all take measures to reduce liabilities from their balance sheets; we could thus see significant mileage devaluation over the next 12-24 months.
Just something to keep in mind.
#9
Original Poster
Join Date: Jan 2009
Location: DEN
Programs: United 1K|SPG Plat
Posts: 265
Thanks for all the help on this. I guess I will value the miles at the marginal cost of the C ticket to me, $1,500 + 2 SWUs, $.015 per mile. An SWU is of little value because I travel on upgradable fares once or twice a year, so I have left overs usually. I'll book the W fare and use SWUs. Status has me worried this year, so I'll take the EQMs.
I am worried about miles devaluation too. The lack of available C space has me scared. This is the first time I've found C space somewhere I want to go + or - a month of when I want to go.
I am worried about miles devaluation too. The lack of available C space has me scared. This is the first time I've found C space somewhere I want to go + or - a month of when I want to go.
#11
Join Date: Jan 2010
Programs: CX, AA
Posts: 40
Cash + SWU would be my choice. Opportunity cost with mileage lost from the award ticket is a big decision on my part. I also have an aversion to redeeming awards on some of the carriers that I credit to, because of the ability to upgrade either through status or SWU/comparable upgrade product.
Last edited by YaZhouXianSheng; Jan 29, 2010 at 9:39 am
#12




Join Date: Nov 2007
Programs: Marriott Bonvoy Platinum, Hilton Honors Diamond, Delta Gold
Posts: 6,645
I would also be inclined to say that cash + upgrades makes the most sense and you still earn miles on the flight. However, I've had times when I just redeemed miles directly for the C award and paid just taxes, since I didn't want (or couldn't manage) the cash outlay for the Y ticket at that point in time. That may be a factor for some when considering a full redemption or cash + upgrade - the outlay for a full redemption is obviously going to be a lot lower than for a cash + upgrade fare.

