Originally Posted by YX802 (Post 9890006)

Here we go again, AirTran was dead WRONG from the start.

Originally Posted by YX802 (Post 9890006)

Undervalued offer.

Originally Posted by YX802 (Post 9890006)

Unsustainable plan for Milwaukee. That has become obvious with their seasonal service they are offering. Were they planning on offering 12 daily flights to ATL year round? Fly to either coast, but only do it seasonally.

Originally Posted by YX802 (Post 9890006)

Furthermore, I doubt they had the resources to close a deal.

Originally Posted by hazelrah (Post 9892434)

The purchase was based mostly on a stock offer as you know. While you can quibble about the terms, there is little doubt that they could have closed the deal given that it was mostly based on stock.

Originally Posted by flyYX (Post 9892591)

Stock that is now worth less than a 1/4 of what it was at the time of the takeover attempt. You have to admit AirTran's plan and assessment was flawed to say the least. I can't remember which hedge fund Richard Horowitz managed that bought a lot of shares in MEH to pressure a sale to AirTran, but can you imagine what he'd be saying today if his fund still owned AAI stock?

Originally Posted by flyYX (Post 9892591)

I can't remember which hedge fund Richard Horowitz managed that bought a lot of shares in MEH to pressure a sale to AirTran, but can you imagine what he'd be saying today if his fund still owned AAI stock? I know they probably would have dumped AAI stock along time ago, but they still would have lost money in the deal.

Originally Posted by flyYX (Post 9892591)

On another note, I am getting close to buying AAI stock myself. I think it is getting close to the bottom. :p

Originally Posted by Global_Hi_Flyer (Post 9892872)

My bet is that Octavian was doing an arb play - meaning they'd be out of the stock at or before closing. I'd also bet that they would have hedged any AAI position, meaning that the losses would be very limited in the time it took to unload the AAI stock.

Originally Posted by flyYX (Post 9892976)

Then it was Pequot that wanted to hold onto AAI stock because they thought the price would go up after the merger. They were also worried about short term capital gains tax with the TPG/NWA all cash offer. In any case, I agree that a sale of Midwest probably was the best thing for their future in light of today's economy. I think there is room in the industry for an airline like Midwest but they have to do some drastic things to survive right now. Shrinking to profitability will not be the answer! This restructuring has to include a way to cut costs without conceding routes to another airline.

Originally Posted by Tim34 (Post 9893334)

how does Midwest do that?

Originally Posted by hazelrah (Post 9892434)

Nope they were right about everything they said about Midwest as follows:

1) Midwest is in survival mode; while Midwest has managed to survive, pursuing a survival strategy has high-risks in the long term.

2) Midwest's turn-around plan was stalled and was already floundering.

Originally Posted by flyYX (Post 9898520)

After some thought this is what I would do if I were Midwest Airlines.

1. Drop the poorest performing CRJ routes immediately. Maybe reduce frequency on some of them also.
I Agree^
2. Ground all MD80s after the summer flying season but keep the West Coast Stations open via the MCI Hub. Use the 717s from MCI to the West Coast through the winter months and offer the MKE Frequent flyers double or triple miles if they fly to the West Coast via MCI.
Good move although this will not make Midwest profitable.
3. For 2009 have lease agreements with other airlines that are reducing their fleet size or find a leasing company with newer efficient aircraft than the MD80. Return to the West Coast with these newly leased aircraft from MKE. We all know AirTran will be back in 2009 and offering the West Coast again to MKE flyers.
[I]This is dependent on TPG/NWA wanting to continue investing money in Midwest. They already overpaid for that airline and it is losing money. They may just want to stop the bleeding and give their shares to NWA/I]
4. Finally have a growth plan in place and stop sitting on your hands. There is going to be a lot of opportunity out there once the shakeup of the airline industry is over. From slots opening up in restricted airports to assets that can be purchased from bankrupt airlines.
That is if midwest makesit through this. I hope that they do

I don’t pretend to know the airline industry inside and out… but to me these seem to be obvious things you can do right now. Just my two cents.

Originally Posted by YX802 (Post 9895948)

I've said this many times before and I will repeat it again.

The offer and proposal were flawed from Day One. Even the three bought and paid for Airtran board members could not support a sale to Airtran. The vote was unanimous. That alone speaks volumes. If you are paying someone $40,000 just to seek a seat on the board, I think you should be entitled to their support.

John Albertine, Charles Kalmbach and Jeffrey Eriickson were at least able to see through Airtran's smoke and mirrors show. It's called integrity.

Originally Posted by YX802 (Post 9895948)

The offer and proposal were flawed from Day One. .

Originally Posted by hazelrah (Post 9905505)

The offer is the offer, not the plan. Air Tran's plan for Milwaukee was sound. The board members had no choice but to accept TPG/NW as TPG's offer was materially (all cash) superior. In a nutshell, Air Tran was outbid.

When all is said and done I think Milwaukee and Midwest employees are the big losers (not the shareholders and some of Midwest mangement who've done quite well). Midwest was in survival mode before high oil.

Unfortunately when the consultant and TPG get done with Midwest, I fear it is going to be very bad; "restructuring" is just a negative codeword for the slicing and dicing to occur. TPG is not in business to lose money.

When the restructuring is done, will Midwest still be viable? I see an MKE environment dominated by Northwest/Delta, it's a shame.

Originally Posted by YX802 (Post 9907177)

Why couldn't they support AirTran? AirTran hired them for that purpose, and they couldn't even get three votes.

Neither, you or Airtran can answer that question. And, yes, I have emailed Airtran with the same question.

The offer and plan were both flawed from Day One, that's why it failed.