Speculation...what will MKE look like in a year?
Apr 16, 2010, 8:37 am
#16
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: MKE
Programs: Midwest Miles, AirTran A+ Rewards
Posts: 1,445
If the One World relationship materializes, I wouldn't fall over in shock if American launched MKE-LHR service with 757s. They're looking at adding flights to places like BDL, DTW, and CHM with 757s. There's no reason to think MKE couldn't work, especially with feed from One World partners on both ends.
Apr 16, 2010, 8:37 am
#17
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: MKE
Programs: Delta Skymiles, Frontier EarlyReturns Summit
Posts: 766
In that scenario that would probably happen (just swap AA and WN). I wonder if they do partner w/ AA if they would start a MKE-ORD shuttle (I know AA has one already sort of). As a purely hypothetical extension to this, could F9 get a small fleet of A330s to do long haul routes out of MKE/DEN to alliance hubs? I don't know enough about the mechanical issues between the A320s vs A330s if they share enough parts where a small fleet wouldn't be overly expensive.
If they do start more international service from MKE I would expect them to push for the airport to add a customs area in concourse D so they can route passengers more efficiently. Or they may just fly to airports with pre-clearance facilities.
I wonder if passenger numbers continue to increase if it'll be time to pull out the plans for concourse F?
If they do start more international service from MKE I would expect them to push for the airport to add a customs area in concourse D so they can route passengers more efficiently. Or they may just fly to airports with pre-clearance facilities.
I wonder if passenger numbers continue to increase if it'll be time to pull out the plans for concourse F?
Last edited by MikeFromMKE; Apr 16, 2010 at 8:43 am
Apr 16, 2010, 8:54 am
#18
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: MKE
Programs: Midwest Miles, AirTran A+ Rewards
Posts: 1,445
I think Milwaukee County would need some sort of a long term lease commitment from some airline in order to start construction of a new concourse. I'm not entirely sure how that all works.
Apr 16, 2010, 10:26 am
#19
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 2,412
MKE does not want to repeat what happened in PIT, where US largely pulled out less than ten years after a completely new terminal opened. Nothing of that scale would be done in MKE, but you still have to make sure that it will be necessary years down the road.
It's a good position to be in, though. On Tuesday, Bedford said cities like Pittsburgh, Indianapolis and Cincinnati would love to have this kind of problem.
Apr 16, 2010, 12:54 pm
#20
Join Date: Feb 2010
Posts: 12
In that scenario that would probably happen (just swap AA and WN). I wonder if they do partner w/ AA if they would start a MKE-ORD shuttle (I know AA has one already sort of). As a purely hypothetical extension to this, could F9 get a small fleet of A330s to do long haul routes out of MKE/DEN to alliance hubs? I don't know enough about the mechanical issues between the A320s vs A330s if they share enough parts where a small fleet wouldn't be overly expensive.
If they do start more international service from MKE I would expect them to push for the airport to add a customs area in concourse D so they can route passengers more efficiently. Or they may just fly to airports with pre-clearance facilities.
I wonder if passenger numbers continue to increase if it'll be time to pull out the plans for concourse F?
If they do start more international service from MKE I would expect them to push for the airport to add a customs area in concourse D so they can route passengers more efficiently. Or they may just fly to airports with pre-clearance facilities.
I wonder if passenger numbers continue to increase if it'll be time to pull out the plans for concourse F?
Apr 16, 2010, 2:12 pm
#21
Join Date: Jun 2008
Location: FLL
Posts: 60
Wouldn't circumstances change for all carriers if oil prices surge, industry consolidation occurs, or some other type of economic calamity happens? Why would it just be Republic that suffers?
Obviously, Republic has a lot on its plate and it will be interesting to see how well they mange these challenges going forward.
Obviously, Republic has a lot on its plate and it will be interesting to see how well they mange these challenges going forward.
Apr 16, 2010, 2:17 pm
#22
Join Date: Jun 2008
Location: MKE
Posts: 2,161
A great alternative to LAX.
Apr 16, 2010, 4:02 pm
#23
Join Date: Jun 2009
Programs: UA Premier
Posts: 193
Getting back to the topic at hand, here are some of my thoughts on what will happen in Milwaukee during the coming year.
I suspect that things will remain pretty status quo through the summer and into fall. Part of the reason is that the fleet is already stretched pretty thin so it would be difficult to add much more at the present time. Plus, a significant amount of capacity has been added back to Milwaukee and we'll have to wait and see how well the airlines do filling seats and what kind of yields they get. I do expect that Mitchell will continue to set passenger records this summer.
Bedford did say in one of his recent weekly messages to employees that if the summer schedule goes well that some new service will be added for the fall and winter, including international flying. For MKE, I suspect that this will include Mexico and possibly the Caribbean. If Frontier were to announce any warm weather resort flying, I suspect that they will team up with someone like Fun Jet to help fill seats through the sale of package deals. These flights would probably only operate a few times a week.
As for next summer, that's still a long ways off but if the economy has improved and the competitive situation in MKE has stabilized, I can see the following additions being added:
1) ANC. I believe this route is definitely viable during the summer months if it operates less than daily (maybe 5x per week) and is tied-in with a vacation partner.
2) BDL. Not sure why this hasn't come back yet.
3) IAH
4) SAT
5) ABQ
6) GSO. Republic could tap into a nice stream of local traffic plus route crews through the network.
If the One World relationship materializes, I wouldn't fall over in shock if American launched MKE-LHR service with 757s. They're looking at adding flights to places like BDL, DTW, and CHM with 757s. There's no reason to think MKE couldn't work, especially with feed from One World partners on both ends.
I suspect that things will remain pretty status quo through the summer and into fall. Part of the reason is that the fleet is already stretched pretty thin so it would be difficult to add much more at the present time. Plus, a significant amount of capacity has been added back to Milwaukee and we'll have to wait and see how well the airlines do filling seats and what kind of yields they get. I do expect that Mitchell will continue to set passenger records this summer.
Bedford did say in one of his recent weekly messages to employees that if the summer schedule goes well that some new service will be added for the fall and winter, including international flying. For MKE, I suspect that this will include Mexico and possibly the Caribbean. If Frontier were to announce any warm weather resort flying, I suspect that they will team up with someone like Fun Jet to help fill seats through the sale of package deals. These flights would probably only operate a few times a week.
As for next summer, that's still a long ways off but if the economy has improved and the competitive situation in MKE has stabilized, I can see the following additions being added:
1) ANC. I believe this route is definitely viable during the summer months if it operates less than daily (maybe 5x per week) and is tied-in with a vacation partner.
2) BDL. Not sure why this hasn't come back yet.
3) IAH
4) SAT
5) ABQ
6) GSO. Republic could tap into a nice stream of local traffic plus route crews through the network.
If the One World relationship materializes, I wouldn't fall over in shock if American launched MKE-LHR service with 757s. They're looking at adding flights to places like BDL, DTW, and CHM with 757s. There's no reason to think MKE couldn't work, especially with feed from One World partners on both ends.
ATA used to run service to Gatwick (I'm probably incorrect on the specific airport) from MKE during the summer. Setting aside the notion that MKE can support TATL service, a 757 doesn't have the range to consistently make Europe, especially the return during winter.
Increased fuel prices will affect all airlines, but some are in better financial shape than others to weather such challenges. I'm not saying RAH is in trouble (yet), but they have to play very, very smart.
Won't it be something if/when F9 starts code-sharing with a major airline... The YX debacle all over again...
Apr 16, 2010, 5:20 pm
#24
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: DAL
Programs: DL Silver, HH diamond, Midwest Miles (RIP), NWA WP (RIP)
Posts: 530
So can't say that I've really got any real predictions, but when I heard the decision, my gut reaction was that we'd see F9/YX ultimately pull down in MKE.
Doesn't fit with the growth that RAH has done with YX thus far, but just my gut reaction.
Either way, my name is almost completely dead...never saw that coming when I registered. At least MKE should stay around for a while
Doesn't fit with the growth that RAH has done with YX thus far, but just my gut reaction.
Either way, my name is almost completely dead...never saw that coming when I registered. At least MKE should stay around for a while
Apr 16, 2010, 5:31 pm
#25
Original Poster
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Chicago
Posts: 1,800
ABQ could work well with 1x daily service on an E170 if it is timed right for connections. Plus, the addition of non-stop service would stimulate the market some more and capture some of the traffic that goes to ORD/MDW for flights. I actually think if Frontier doesn't jump on this AirTran may very well start service within the next year or so and do quite well.
GSO would be better served with an E145. There's a small (but decent) stream of local, higher fare traffic that Frontier could tap into. Believe it or not, MKE generates more traffic to GSO than places like RIC, CVG, or MEM. I'm not saying the route will launch put it certainly has some potential (on paper at least).
The only way ANC could work is if it's flown during the peak summer period and is connected with cruise packages sold by travel agencies. It would also have to be timed to connect with key Frontier cities in the MidWest and East Coast. If the flight is sold on it's own it will be a disaster.
As for TATL service, MKE-LHR is well within the range of a 757. That's pretty much the only European destination that could work with that type of aircraft. Several years ago Northwest looked at MKE-AMS flights. They claimed demand was there to justify 757 service but the aircraft didn't have the range to fly the route non-stop. Serving it with an A330 would have been over-kill. Thankfully, Bedford has stated that Republic has no plans to offer TATL or TPAC service anytime soon. That would be a disaster in the making if they attempted to acquire wide-body jets to fly international routes.
Last edited by BlueHorseShoe2000; Apr 16, 2010 at 5:50 pm
Apr 16, 2010, 5:41 pm
#26
Original Poster
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Chicago
Posts: 1,800
When YX ran MCI-SNA, it didn't do all that well. Part of the reason had to do with poor connections to/from MKE. YX did some surveys with frequent travelers on the route. Most preferred LAX but went to SNA simply because YX flew non-stop from MCI or flights were operated with Signature Service 717s. That's one of the reasons why YX started MCI-LAX instead.
MCI-SNA probably would have done much better (load and yield wise) if it was flown 1x daily. However, when SNA gave Midwest slots it required two round trips (they did let Midwest drop to 1x daily during the winter of 2004 with the stipulation the route either return to 2x daily by May 2005 or be discontinued. The route ended April 30, 2005 and MCI-LAX started the next day).
I'd like to see Frontier reinstate MCI-SNA but I doubt that will happen.
Apr 16, 2010, 8:22 pm
#27
Join Date: Jun 2008
Location: MKE
Posts: 2,161
Apr 16, 2010, 8:36 pm
#28
Original Poster
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Chicago
Posts: 1,800
Apr 17, 2010, 7:47 pm
#29
Join Date: Sep 2000
Location: Denver, Colorado
Programs: DEN: WN or UA, AA LT Gold, VIA Preference Preferred
Posts: 1,550
If the One World relationship materializes, I wouldn't fall over in shock if American launched MKE-LHR service with 757s. They're looking at adding flights to places like BDL, DTW, and CHM with 757s. There's no reason to think MKE couldn't work, especially with feed from One World partners on both ends.
Apr 22, 2010, 8:39 pm
#30
Join Date: Nov 2009
Location: America's Dairyland
Programs: Midwest Miles, Early Returns
Posts: 156
I'm hoping in a year (or less) we are attending a huge YX sale of old signs, papers, stationary, what-have-you with the Midwest logo (FTers get first dibs of course). I hope they don't just throw all that stuff out, I'd like the opportunity to purchase some of it! Still basking in the glow of the seat sale...