I think I am going to redeem for a vacation package. I have enough to redeem up to the 120,000 miles maximum. It seems whether I redeem 50,000 miles or 120,000 miles, it is 1=1 on the US carriers. So, there is no "the more points the better the exchange rate" concern.

I just don't know what factors to consider when I make the decisions. I am making more than enough miles on the airlines and I have enough points left to redeem more vacation packages. However, it seems this is just way to good a deal to pass up.

It seems the thing to consider is: are the Marriott points more likely to devalue or the airline miles more likely to devalue?

Anything else I should consider?

Thanks.

I always convert the max. 120k AA miles per package. I do consider it "the more the better". The 1:1 swap is the best offer in the Marriott system.

A couple things guide my thinking there:

- I always earn more MR points than I can spend. It's better for me to swap 'em out for AA flights (or subsequent conversion to HH stays from AA) - simply to get more award diversity.

- They count towards AA lifetime levels. I've already reached Lifetime Gold - when I got to that level, it was 36% due to Marriott Travel Packages. I don't even fly AA a huge amount anymore, but as long as the lifetime levels are still in effect, I'll get there on Travel Packages within a few years.

As for devaluation, there's risk on both sides. With hotels, the risk is more about a gradual devaluation ("Category Creep") over time. With airlines, the risk is more about how tight they are with availability when you want to travel. Airlines don't change their award charts often because they don't have to. They just throttle the availability up or down as need be.

In general, Category Creep at Marriott stings a little less than at other chains because the levels are more gradual. If your favorite prop goes from a 5 to a 6, your Travel Package goes up less than 10 percent. At Starwood, the jumps are bigger - 20 to over 100 percent when a hotel moves from one category to the next. That's why this year in particular there was a lot of widespread panic in Starwood land - they bumped up hundreds of properties, causing many to feel the whole program had devalued to some extent.

There really isn't a one true answer to this question. It depends on how you would use and how you value each of the miles and where you really need them. You can do a search on this forum for how people value Marriott points as there are numerous threads on that. In general most here tend to value an airline mile more than a Marriott point. Therefore, any opportunity to convert at a 1-to-1 ratio would be maximized (i.e. convert the 120K points option.)

If you really have more points in both Marriott and airline accounts than you can currently use, then it may make sense to leave more points in your Marriott account as you will still have points to order more travel package awards in the future (if you need the airline points then). But in general, if you are traveling with more than one person and start taking international vacations, you will need more airline miles than you will Marriott points per each vacation.

As to your devaluation point, both will tend to devalue over time so they will tend to offset each other. And even if the airline points were to devalue more than the airline points, there is a pretty big difference in their general values that over a short period ( a few years or less) devaluation would really change your decision.

Thanks for the thoughtful answers. I wish UA had a MM program based on miles credited to the account, not miles flown. Where I live (PHX), AA does not let me go west - everything has to backtrack to DFW or use AS. So, it is sort of tough for me to pile up more miles on AAdvantage.

What I am more concerned about is the point->mile conversion rate in the future - or even the travel package deals in the future. In general, I think if something is too good a deal, then it won't last.