In your scenario, do you think there's any concession for people with the 7 night R-C tier 5 cert which would translate into 420k pts, but within a system where the highest category is 60k per night and fifth night is free? Technically the highest cost of a seven night redemption will be 360k points. I suppose you could book for eight nights but people have enough trouble using all seven nights on a cert as it is so I'd rather get the difference back if that's how things go down.

The one thing I've been wondering is about paying 30K to upgrade our packages from cat 5 (25k/nt) to cat 6 (30k/nt). It seems like Marriott is too kind (and too smart) to convert a 30k/nt package into a 25k/nt package, so I suspect it would convert into a 35k/nt package (cat 5 under the new scheme). I suspect if we wait until Aug 1, we'll have to pay 60K to upgrade from what will be cat 4 to cat 5; whereas right now we could just pay 30K. I think the harder call is whether to pay 90k to move to a cat 8 (40K/nt under current scheme), hoping it maps onto cat 6 in the new chart. It seems like it would probably work, since converting it to new cat 5 would be taking 5k/nt away from us; but it feels less certain, since the new cat 5 level (35K) would be closer to 40K than the new cat 6 (50k). But of course if it worked, you would get a 90k value for 30k, and it seems likely there will be some sweet cat 6's on the new chart.

Pretty sure this is just supporting evidence that the certs will be assigned an equivalent value in points instead of mapped to a category. Too much room to game it if they do the latter.

Good suggestion. I might do the cat-6. After 8/1, if it's cat to cat mapping, cat-6 has good chance to be mapped to new cat-5. That will be a big win. If it's convert to point based cert, I may still be able to get cat-5 next year during off-peak or 5 night cat-6 off peak. Not bad neither.

Atlantis Bahamas: Does not accept travel packages??
 

Thanks. Good to know. I tried in the evening. Will try during the day; hopefully I will get a better result. What phone number did you call?

Platinum line 800 399-4229. The CSR didn't know how to handle it, so he put me on hold and a supervisor took care of it.

Agreed. The whole catch with the TP's is that it's a 7-night stay. I don't see them creating a loophole where an "old" Cat 5 TP can become a 3 night stay at a 50k/nt hotel.

The old Cat 5 basically becomes a new Cat 4, and you can upgrade it from there by calling in.

It's possible to attach a 7 night cert to a 5 night stay, right? I asked for this and Marriott rep acted like I was crazy. Wasnt asking for a 5 night package, was happy to pay the 7 nights rate to get the UA miles but only needed 5 nights.

yes, you can attached to any <=7 nights reservation for the correct cat

So I was going through the math, and I'm pretty certain there will be a significant devaluation of the travel packages (shocking, I know). The following math is with assuming that Marriott holds true to their word, and most current Cat 5s become Cat 4s or lower under the new program.

If we take a test case of a 100k airline mile transfer (excluding United), this will cost a minimum of 240k MR points under the new program (4x60k MR becoming 4x20k miles, plus 4x5k bonuses). Currently, the Cat 1-5 + 100k Mile package costs 250k MR. Paying 10k for a 7-night stay on top of the transfer just seems too good of a deal.

Yes, I am aware that the current travel packages are actually a discount over the direct MR-> mile transfers, in which the above case would cost a minimum of 280k MR. However, these mile transfers will become a bigger deal to the new program, considering how central it is to many SPG members.

Futhermore, consider that the current SPG Nights + Flights costs 60k Starpoints (180k MR) for a Cat 3 (roughly similar to a Marriott Cat 5), and that only nets you 50k airline miles and 5 nights. You could add the remaining 50k airline miles for a grand total of 100k Starpoints (300k MR).

If I had to guess, I would say that the Cat 1-5 (well Cat 1-4 under the new program) + 100k TP will go up by 50k (20%).

Then how will they handle the non-perfect matching cat? For example, cat-6 TP? Mapping to new cat-5, mapping to new cat-4 and refund the difference?

SPECULATION:

I did a little math and came up with what I think the Travel Packages will cost in the new program. I calculated this following what seems like the formula for the current program.
For Travel Package #1 :
Category.....50,000.......70,000....100,000....120 ,000
..........1-4.....200000.....220000.....250000.....270000
.............5.....260000.....280000.....310000.....330000
.............6.....350000.....370000.....400000.....420000
.............7.....410000.....430000.....460000.....480000
.............8.....560000.....580000.....610000.....630000
These are using the Standard Rates from the table on the website. I'll speculate on a few questions everybody will surely have.
1) What about Peak Rates? I believe they will require supplements such as upgrade certificates (e.g., one cert for each 5K point increment).
2) What about Off-Peak Rates? I believe the member will have to eat the value from the TP certificate. I believe this is basically what happens in the current program.
3) What about the significant disparities among properties in any particular category? Again, I'll bet this will be managed through those hotels requiring upgrade certificates. I'm guessing we will see this mostly for those high-end Cat 7 properties and "ultra-premium" properties that will eventually be in Cat 8.

They'll have to do a one-time fix on today's cat 6, 8, and 9. The logical thing is that they'd convert them down a half-step and refund some points, knowing that members can always call back in to upgrade their certs.

Or they could map them up a half-step for free, which could be really solid of them. :) But I'm not expecting that.

I guess the key will be whether or not the hotels will remain at the current categories, or track with their previous levels (ie Category 5 dropping to Category 4) and whether or not they are converting them to category level or total point certificates (which mentioned elsewhere would be valuable if you end up booking at a lower category hotel). I am eyeing a category 4 property for a package (I know not the most profitable way to use it, but the hotel is new and nice and in a location we want to go to). I am trying to decide if it is worth redeeming now for the package and maybe get some benefit (the 7 night certificate gets converted to total points which would be 25K * 6 and the category 4 hotel goes from 20K /night down to 17,500 since there will be no 20K level anymore) when the conversion happens, or just waiting for the shoe to drop.

I appreciate that my views are conjecture (albeit based on common sense and what Marriott has publically said about CC certificates), but a few responses...

Exactly. Swapping un-redeemed TP certificates on 1 August for points certificates (presumably redeemable only against a single stay) is simple, easy to explain, is consistent with the approach to CC certificates, doesn't require them to "map" new tiers on to old tiers, doesn't cost them too much, doesn't irritate customers, and may even create good will. It's the only sensible solution imho.

Interesting argument -- but given that you'd still be able to redeem for 7 nights at a Tier 5 property (with presumably better availability than now), which is what you originally purchased, I think it would be tough to argue that you're due any kind of refund. If this scenario comes to pass, I would just consider myself fortunate that I might be able to redeem for an additional night.

Completely agree that that's the usual 'catch' with TP certificates -- and that that's the basis on which new certificates will almost certainly be sold after 1 August (at whatever new pricing they come up with, which will almost certainly be less attractive than current pricing). But we're talking about a one-time solution to bridge the gap from old MR to new MR -- I see them taking the path of least resistance.

I also don't really see this as a 'loophole' or a significant 'windfall' if this comes to pass. Marriott are effectively swapping something that's worth 150,000 points to them, for something that's worth 150,000 points to them, on a one-off one-time basis (for vouchers that by definition will expire by 31 Aug 2019 at the latest).

Per the above, this is one of the many reasons why I think Marriott will convert all legacy TP certificates to points vouchers. Anything else just gets too messy. Let's not get too wrapped up in the fact that a Cat 5 voucher would map neatly onto Cat 4 -- pretty much none of the other tiers do.