It’s maybe too early to assume anything, however any guesses at this stage as to what 2021 Cat. Changes could look like?

way too early....i'm surprised at their peak pricing at the moment....hotel i'm staying in tonight is selling for $72 a night but its also available at peak redemption rates....most other hotels in the area are also available for well under $100 a night but they all have either peak or regular redemption rates....

The ridiculous redemption prices/values at most properties right now are for me one of the several nails in the coffin for Marriott. And the fact that Marriott is now selling points in the range of .8 cents per does not bode well for the future. Expect redemption prices to stay high, and points value to continue to plunge.

I believe you could have posted this in any Hotel Forum and be correct (maybe Hyatt is an exception). Hilton is no different really cheap rates yet top amounts for an award stay

It is absolutely not true for Hyatt. I didn't offer the comparison in my initial post because this is the Marriott forum.

from their models it probably makes sense. People are probably wanting to redeem points most frequently during off peak/non-business travel dates. It�s also their lowest demand for paid stays so the rates are cheaper and points redemptions are high. This logic probably doesnt pertain to peak times like holidays or summer travel to certain locations.

Compared to other years, I expect much less churn in redemption rates come 2021. They normally set them based on the previous years demand, but that would make no sense based on how 2020 turned out. Think they will just roll over current rates with a very small bit of fiddling around the edges, maybe 1-2% of properties.

Been getting excellent value from IHG dynamic pricing this summer; coastal California HIX'es for 12,000 points and the IC San Diego for 30,000. But yeah, the Marriott points rates don't seem to reflect reality right now.

I have seen some points reductions (typically 5K off some nights) for properties I was considering staying at. I believe that corresponds to off peak award rate. Cash prices were normal or close to normal for the properties. So I think it varies a lot depending on where you want to stay. In contrast, IHG does appear to be more generously discounting the award stay rates. Cash rates at their properties are also normal or close to normal. So overall currently IHG is a better value proposition versus Marriott using award stay cost as the metric.

One could also get back into trying to make the argument hotels should be charging minimum rates in their normal range to drive occupancy. That is a different discussion that has been covered ad nauseum. So, I won't get into on this thread.

--Jon

As categories are based on "demand" shouldn't all hotels to be category one next year.

I'd settle for a one category drop. As it stands, I don't see the value in redeeming and given the poor redemption value and lack of elite benefits, I don't feel like paying $$ to stay either.

Thats what I hate with dynamic pricing most of the programs instituted a min for pt value so if then rate goes down only to a certain pt (if at all) will it cost less pts, the airlines are famous for this as well, exception of Jet Blue where as the fare goes down so does the amount of pts needed

But no way should a hotel with say a $89 rate be asking 40 or 50k in pts, hello Marriott and Hilton

if the demand dropped across the board, by Marriott logic, no change required because the demand decreased compared to revenue decrease = the same category .

I say Marriott is going to pull a �we heard the members and because of the current travel conditions, we have decided not to have category changes in 2021.�

in this trying time, they don�t like your points anyway. They prefer cash. Don�t see any reason for hotels or Marriott to drop point requirements.

My guess is that properties within cities, and outside of the US will move down categories, generally! Instead of seeing off peak rates, I notice quite a few point saver rates, there doesn’t seem to be a rhyme or reason to whom and where is offering this. I think possibility that just isn’t a priority right now, where as next years categories changes will have more attention paid to them.