I suspect very little meaningful downward reductions in pricing, especially in major resort and cities. With 2020 being 'unprecedented' in terms of revenue challenges, my guess is that they will pretty much skip the data and just do some tinkering with properties where demand would be relatively low in an non-COVID world.

Hotels will generally be looking for cash next year, so if there is to be an incentive to stay, it will be for earning rather than burning points.

Meanwhile, Hyatt has continued its 25% points rebate promo through January 4, 2021. Not only is this promo good for driving loyalty (it's working for me), it incentivizes members to acquire more Hyatt points, either through purchases, credit card spend, or more stays, all of which generate cash for Hyatt (some of which is then distributed to properties as compensation for the award stays).

Marriott would do well to institute a promo which similarly enhances the value of its points and drives loyalty and revenue, rather than constantly devaluing them.

What Hilton has an $89 rate and 40k points for the same Standard room? Those rates should generally be around 20k based on their dynamic pricing.

Agreed here - I hope to get enough Marriott points to get to 120k in my balance so I can cash those out before they deval the airline transfers.

Looking for some uses of my FNCs (up to 35k/night) this fall and the number of Cat 5 hotels that have rates under $150 but are 'peak' value are insane. The SpringHill Suites Baltimore Inner Harbor is at peak pricing in November while going for $84/night.

I was just a lowly Gold but still happy I switched my nights mainly to Hyatt at the beginning of the year (Hilton as a backup).

Nailed it! I've been shopping rates for our annual trip to MLB Spring Training (I know, optimistic). Hotels I can get for $109 are still 40K points a night. I guess cash talks.

Annual Category Changes
 

Any word onif/ when we're going to get bonvoyed with 2021 changes ? Do they link category movements to hotel adr or is it bonvoy logic ?

The announcement is usually in February with the change in March so we've got awhile yet. The algorithm used by Marriott is not public, but it is assumed/educated guess based on things published on Flyertalk and elsewhere that it is a combination of the volume of awards used at a particular hotel, past ADR and a prediction of ADR/occupancy levels for the year ahead.

i believe the announcement is normally in February and effective in March of each year...

Maybe if we all keep quiet they will forget. No?

Feb 5, 2020 / March 4, 2020
Feb 8, 2019 / March 5, 2019

I don't think they will make any category changes this year, too much risk of negative media blowback. Very few locations could have legitimately seen increase in award pressure.

Had Marriott cared about what you stated, Marriott would have stated no category change a long time ago.

But Marriott rep never indicated such thing. They advised us to wait for possible category change downward, a possibility if you want to roll the dice.

So if you have any solid travel plan, book reservations right now. Then cancel if categories drop.

You're right. My bad. Edited my original post.

I have been looking at Hilton and Marriott for a (fingers crossed) road trip early summer. For Hilton I am seeing some pretty good redemption rates (based on my expectations of what is "pretty good") of .005 to almost .008 - Marriott properties just look ridiculous high point redemption for the cash rate (I did not do the math) but I do have a few free nights certs to burn so will use them. Pointwise Marriott looks more along the lines of not bother using points except if my hotel brand choice skews more towards Hilton. as I expect it will, I might just use them to avoid spending money. Points in any program are going to do nothing but be worth less than they are sitting unused.

Based on occupancy rates and room rates we should be seeing significant decreases in award levels......but I doubt that will happen since Marriott hasn't even made the changes over the last year like IHG and HH have. You can get a IHG Intercontinental in NYC for 40k (which used to be 70k) but if you want to book something with Marriott they still expect you to stay in Brooklyn or down by Wall Street for anything under 40k.

I could absolutely see Marriott increases rates for properties that are in high demand, i.e., higher-end resort properties in places where travel is allowed.