About the SLOTS
 

Anyone know where REAL information is available concerning how slots work?
I am familiar with most of the common cliches regarding the topic, but I sure am interested in the real story, that, perhaps, the casinos would rather I didn't know.

Casino's continue to replace their table games with slots because slots create the majority of their profits.

Here's a link to one site that thinks they have the slots figured out
http://wizardofodds.com/slots

If you google slot secrets you will get many similar sites to browse.

From the info I have read in various casino magazines and similar publications, the "secret" at winning in slots (except possibly video poker) is that there is no secrect--everything is controlled by a RNG (random number generator chip). Sometimes you might find that a machine suddenly gets "hot", the way to tell in advance is to lightly touch the machine, if you don't get burned it is not hot.:p

That's the cliche, allright. But, my experience is that they do get hot, and, more often, extremely cold, especially after a good hit. The latter event happens too often to be random, IMO.

Not very lucky in December 06
 

Well, I played the slots (a lot of them) at the MGM Grand. My advice...when you hit....leave & go do something else! If nothing else, ensure you've enrolled the hotel's "Player's Club" program. I earned several free dinners, complimentary extra's and discounts.

Good luck! :cool:

Hit and quit for a while has been my best result, also. My only remaining con-cern is whether the player's card use limits your returns on the machines, them-selves. That's certainly within the capability of the machines. Any hard evidence?

It's truly random. What you're noticing is simply noticeable -- which makes it memorable -- you don't notice all the times it *doesn't* happen that way.

People are constantly searching for patterns in what are essentially random acts, and slot machines are no different. That's how our brains are wired. We find patterns in the noise, but the patterns are just as random as the things that don't look like patterns. In any random set of data, there will be things that look like remarkable patterns -- "amazing coincidences." But the reality is that it's random and our brain just pulls out the patterns to help us make sense of it.

And slot machines are no different. Slot machine designers take advantage of this fact of human psychology. The design of all of the slot symbols is no accident. They're designed to make us notice patterns -- and to keep thinking how "close" something was to a match based on the similarity of the patterns. In reality, the symbols might as well be blank, because there's no significance to them. Getting four out of five 7's in a row is mathematically the same as getting one out of five 7's, but we get excited in the first case because we think we were "close," or maybe getting "closer." Everything about the slot machine -- the visuals and the sounds -- reinforces this, and it's no accident.

The random number generators are in no way affected by the presence of absence of Players Club cards. In fact, slot machines use a completely different microprocessor and hardware to manage the Players Club functionality. That hardware only sees "credits in," and doesn't even know the result of a spin.

But casinos don't mind if people think there are "hot" machines or if people have rituals they perform for luck, etc. -- because the cold, hard facts of statistics aren't that exciting and if people only thought sensibly about the statistics, few people would gamble. So casinos are happy to oblige; one example of this is how they have the number boards that show what numbers and colors have hit on roulette wheel the past dozen or so spins. Those numbers are completely, statistically meaningless -- roulette spins are memoryless, meaning the current spin is not affected in any way by the result of prior spins. If red hits 20 times in a row, it is just as likely to hit on the 21st spin as black. But people like to find patterns, and instinctively think that the numbers are compelled to balance out, so the casino is happy to put the number history up if that makes people more emotionally vested in the gambling.

Thanks for the joy kill. Now how am I supposed to throw my retirement away knowing that I am not really "close" to hitting triple 7's? :( Jk. But really what you said is totally true and needed to be said.

I was in a video poker tournament, when, before we started, the people around me were lamenting that their machine wasn't a "hot machine". I was explaining probabilty and lack of memory of random events -- they weren't buying. Idiots. No wonder I won $2000.

[QUOTE=scott1212;7080719]It's truly random. What you're noticing is simply noticeable -- which makes it memorable -- you don't notice all the times it *doesn't* happen that way.

You're saying I don't notice that it is still random. I'm saying I do notice that it is no longer random.

[QUOTE=standby my man;7082223]In random data, you EXPECT to see sequences of data that don't look random at all, including consistent patterns. It may be counterintuitive, but if you didn't see those patterns, the data wouldn't really be random! I think you are equating random with "completely irregular." But in fact that's not random. Data's not really random unless it doesn't look random at times. (I know, my head is starting to spin too.)

A couple years ago, Apple had to change the "shuffle" algorithm on the iPod to make it LESS random because people didn't think it was random enough. Mathematically, the expectation is high that you'll hear the same song two or three times in a row now and then, even if you have a lot of songs and are shuffling randomly among them. But if you have one thousand songs and hear the same one twice in a row, intuitively you think it's not random at all. So Apple adjusted the algorithm, making it LESS random by minimizing the chance of those TRULY random artifacts from happening. They did this by reducing the chance that a song is played if it has recently been played. That makes the algorithm completely unrandom, but to people, the result will seem more random.

You are noticing patterns. In random data you expect to have noticeable patterns. That doesn't change the fact that the data is still random.

Here's another example of this paradox in play. If you gather 23 complete, random strangers together in a room, what are the chances that at least two of the strangers will have the exact same birthday? Mathematically, the chance is more than 50%. But that doesn't seem intuitive to us: after all, there's only 23 people, but 365 days. I'd bet that most people, upon discovering that two people had the same birthday, would consider it an amazing coincidence. It's not. It would be more of a coincidence if two people DIDN'T have the same birthday! (If the number rises to 60 random people in a room, statistically there is a greater than 99% chance that at least two will have the same birthday.)

The only thing that is not random about slot machines is that the algorithm is adjusted to, over time, pay back a certain percent of the take-in in an adjustable way. Within that constraint, the manner in which the slot machine does it is completely random. A lot of math, research, engineering and regulation guarantees that. The beauty of statistics is that even in random data, we will see things that we swear aren't random at all because they're such an "amazing coincidence." And that's part of what makes slot machines addicting. If the manufacturers adjusted the algorithms to *appear* more random by in fact being *less* random (like Apple did with the iPod), that would decrease the fun of slot machines because you would no longer have those hot or cold runs that make slot machines exciting. Mathematically, in random data you expect hot and cold runs and every other possibility of pattern or non-pattern, over time, at some time.

One other thing to keep in mind is that even if the slots weren't run by a RNG (which they are), one person is too small a sample size to notice a pattern. Don't worry, the Nevada Gaming Commission has a pretty tight leash on these guys! :)

Mike

Regarding randomness of slots:

I have lived here long enough to have some amazing examples. A woman I worked with hit a Royal Flush on a machine. While waiting for the payout, she played the machine next to her and hit another Royal!

I have personally seen people hit very large jackpots twice in a row on the same machine.

Another guy I know hit four Royal Flushes on video poker machines in less than two hours!

And rumor has it, some people don't win a damned thing for days/months/years in a row.

Seems pretty random to me.

As an actuary I'm quite familiar with the probability side of all this but I was still quite surprised when I hit 4 queens twice in a row while playing video poker last time I was in LV. Double bonus too. :)

As for the slots, one thing you can control is where you play. I've read in Las Vegas Advisor about studies showing which casinos have higher payout rates on slots. I don't have the list handy now but the big expensive strip casinos paid out less on average than some of the more sedate locals joints. Of course you'd have to play a lot (as some locals might) to notice the difference. For one weekend in Sin City I don't know that it would make too much difference.

Or you can stick with video poker where you can analyze the pay schedules and determine which machines are a better play.

My experience with video poker is very limited-I've delved a little but found it boring, with not much chance for a big payout. Played one machine where 4
of a kind payed like 2 to 1. I know I must be missing something because they
proliferate in all the casinos. Guess I need some advice as to which kind of machines are worth the effort. I know the payouts must be good, because the comp rates on them is much lower than regular slots. Any advice?