www.wizardofodds.com is a great site that will tell you more than you ever wanted to know about the probabilities built into all of the casino games, including several versions of VP. There are also online java games that will correct you if you make a bad play.

Usualy advertisements for "99% slots" and the like have little asterisks that say in small type, certain machines only. If a machine or a bank of machines has a sign advertising a certain percentage, the casino is required to offer that percentage at every machine so marked. But: 1) Slots are random and you could lose even on a 101% machine. 2) The public doesn't care about percentages. Go to any casino where 99% or even 101+% slots are offered and you will find the specially marked machines sitting empty.

Baloney. Your chances of winning are the same on every pull of the handle or punch of the button and this does not vary, except for the amount of the progressive jackpot if any, depending on whether someone recently hit a jackpot on that machine.

Baloney. Your chances of winning are the same on every pull of the handle or punch of the button and this does not vary, except for the amount of the progressive jackpot if any, depending on whether someone recently hit a jackpot on that machine.[/QUOTE]

Assuming you are playing one of those 99% slots, that means they pay back 99% of what is put in. So, technically, you are correct - you could have a machine hit two or more jackpots in a short period...but 99% means just that - the machine cannot, by definition, pay out forever...somebody is going to have to feed this "loose" slot in order for others to win. Otherwise they would advertise them as 200% payouts, or 1000% payout machines. The machine is not going to keep popping up with jackpots forever, ergo, you can be the schmuck who plays the loosest slot in town and still not win diddle squat.

Where do the ER stats come from, and do they give specific casino figures?

Statistics are over the long-haul. Replace the slot machine with a pair of dice. The game is bet $10. If you roll snake-eyes, you win $360, otherwise you win $0. That game has a 100% payoff. If you roll snake-eyes and win $360, what are the chances you will roll it again on the next try? Exactly the same as the previous try... that doesn't mean the payoff is 200%.

The stats are based on the pay tables; so there would be no variation from Casino to Casino IF it was the same game with the same paytable (and they are Class III games with RNG). The only way properties "screw" you at VP is to make the machines "short pay" i.e. they modify the pay tables.

So a 9/6 JoB game with an ER of 99.54% has a 1 coin Paytable of 1-2-3-4-6-9-25-50-250
an an 8/5 JoB game with an ER of 97.30% has a 1 coin Paytable of
1-2-3-4-5-8-25-50-250

and there are other varieties of paytables above and below these percentages depending on additional variations to the paytables.

You can't know the ER without knowing the probability of each category of payoffs. So, who gave you the ER percentages and are they necessarily valid?

Baccarat-brilliant analysis. If one did roll snake eyes again it sure wouldn't mean a 200% payoff - $370 wagered and $720 returned ain't 200%. It was a cool example, though. You probably impressed someone. You make believe probability experts mostly ain't.
But, in your example the payout is almost 200% based on those rolls. Not likely to stay at that with more rolls,
obviously.

you are very doubting... :D

anyway, Michael S. The Wizard of Odds does a good job presenting
probability and return of each hand under optimal (99.54%) and simple strategy for 9/6 JoB on a full pay machine.

Of course, you could always run the numbers to verify the above. :D

Video Poker is dealt from a standard 52 card deck - just as if there was a human dealer with a deck of cards instead of a video screen in front of you. Knowing this, you can figure out the probability of every possible hand. As this is WAY beyond my statistical ability, I'll rely on the experts there. This is where wizardofodds comes in. Here is his analysis: http://wizardofodds.com/videopoker/t...sorbetter.html

The casinos cannot change the probabilities in a VP machine, well at least not legally. The modify their expected profit by reducing the pay table. As noted above a 9/6 machine is the best for Jacks or Better at 99.54% return to the player - assuming perfect strategy. You are NOT going to find this machine at a strip casino that needs to pay for volcanoes, white tigers, giant fountains and so on. They will probably have 8/5 at best. I notice the games built into the bar are often even worse at 7/5 - I guess they assume you are taking more "free" drinks sitting at the bar. Will you find 9/6 at places that cater to the locals and want to attract the more serious gamblers.

On slots, only the casino knows the expected return. Here is a great explanation of how the probability is determined. http://wizardofodds.com/slots Towards the bottom you will find a link to a ranking (several years old) of experiments showing which Vegas casinos have the loosest slots. I believe this was based on actual play, not analysis of the probability tables which are confidential to the casino.

It seems to be very hard for most people to accept that slots do use a RNG and each pull of the handle has the exact same odds as the pull before.

The majority of slot players want to believe and I think need to believe that they will find a "hot" machine and make a killing. While it is possible that they could win a jackpot or two or three in sequence, the probability of it happening is slim.

This small chance to win is what keeps the slot players sitting for hours in front of a machine until their money is gone. And this is also why the casino's can spend billions of dollars enlarging their hotels and creating larger areas for slot players.

actually, you will find it on the strip ;)

Currently (and this can change overnight) you still have some at :
Caesars ($1/$2/$5 MG/MD TITO slant tops in the high limit palace court)
Paris at the $5/10/$25 level (and also at Bally's at this denomination)
Wynn Las Vegas has a lot from 25 cent Spin Poker Deluxe and MG/MD/TITO from 25c/50c/$1 --- almost too much to mention
Venetian also has 9/6 at the $1 and $5 level.

Yes, you will definitely find more at the locals places --- such as Gold Coast and Palms; but, there are limited selection of playable games on the strip. Unfortunately, the full pay and short pay machines are often in the same banks --- so, you really need to check very carefully.

The Hard Rock also has some full-pay VP machines -- you just elect to forego comps on those. You need to figure the value of comps into the ER.

Only some machines pay back 99%.

That being said, say EVERY machine paid back 99% all the time.

You give me $100, I give you $99.

Rinse, repeate. I win

Don't forget the multi-line machines where you're betting a set bet (call it a dollar) on each of 5 lines. On the nickle machines, you can bet a nickle on each of 21 lines. I think I even saw a 40-line machine but can't recall... anyway, if you hit on one line and the payout is 4:1, you get $4 but it still cost you $5 to pull the handle. The gap is much wider on the smallest bet machines--- nickles and pennies--- but a lot harder to spot because you can bet multiple lines AND bet multiple coins per line. Bet 21x a nickle on a 9-line machine and you've got to be very lucky to break even.