sbm12

Whoopsie...all better now

caphis

With BOS-SFO being a good 200 miles or so longer than JFK-BOG, is this really an issue? I'm no A320 expert by any means, but I think the range tops out a bit higher.

sbm12

I believe that elevation plays into it. At over 2500m BOG is a rather high airport, and that affects the amount of fuel that can be carried for departure, I believe, which limits range.

MAH4546

Spirit is not using their FLL-BOG authority on FLL-CTG. Spirit is starting both flights, Cartagena in May and Bogota in June.

Cartagena is Open Skies. Any U.S. or Colombian airline can fly any route between the U.S. and Cartagena.

JetBlue must use this authority to fly MCO-BOG, and if they want to switch it to another route, they must ask DOT, and then other airlines can submit proposals to ask for the frequencies.

At less than 50 people and day and limited connecting oppurtunities, MCO-BOG is going to be a struggle. Wish them luck, JetBlue seriously needs it.

jetBlueNYFL

Once again, while 50 pax a day (I trust you did the proper research on traffic figures, I did not), is somewhat low...there are NOT limited connection possibilities. JFK, IAD, BOS, upstate NY, a little out west, etc. Much more than HALF that flight will NOT be O&D. And let's keep in mind, jetBlue often CREATES business. With attractive (but profitable) fares, more people will begin to fly.

craz

I wouldnt include JFK, when I used to run down to BOG, AV was using 767s and Id still go that way over an A320 with a stop. Of cause if B6 is giving it away (I doubt they will) that might sway me. If i was gonna do it with a connect , Id sooner go with AA via MIA where its widebodies and I can access a Club both here & there.

Dont forget DL is gonna be doing non-stop JFK-BOG so why go via MCO

I wish 'em luck, they'll need it on this 1

N830MH

Thanks!

Seat13c

They will not be pulling any West Coast traffic through MCO for the BOG flight. Other than AUS, all the US destinations are either Atlantic Coast states or one state in. Unless someone has a lot of time to kill to save a very minimal amount of money, if any, you won't see anyone fly from the west coast and make two stops to get to BOG.

However, I do agree with you that there will be a lot of connecting traffic for this route, especially coming from the NYC area and BOS.

MAH4546

Boston-Colombia market is even smaller, Washington-Colombia is roughly the same size, and JFK-Colombia has about five daily non-stops as is. There is no way JetBlue is going to get enough connections to make up for the small market size. Syracuse-Bogota doesn't even have one daily O&D passenger, neither does Rochester-Bogota.

Low-fares also have minimal stimulation in a VFR market like Bogota. While there will be some stimulation on the side of Colombians vacationing in Orlando, they'll have to overcome the perception among South Americans that Orlando is a place you visit as a day-trip from Miami.

I stand by what I say: this route will struggle in a major way. I'd love to be wrong, though. It's great to see JetBlue at Bogota.

Mimi Imferst

Funny you should mention this as it seems AV has been planning to open this route, BOG-MCO. There is some question now whether or not they will attempt. Guessing the answer is no.

MCO is the 7th largest destination from Colombia to the US. Colombia has been on the hot 10 lists for travel this year(current situation notwithstanding). Not to mention the demand that lower fares may be able to bring. This number of 50/pax a day for O/D should be alot higher when the numbers come out next year. Jury is still out on how well Jetblue does with bringing connectors from the Northeast as this will mean the difference between profit and loss. I think Jetblue will be able to price quite well against DL and CO directs from NYC. We'll see.

Mimi Imferst

Well craz, this may just sway you.

Article comes in Spanish only, sorry. Do my best to translate...

http://www.prensaescrita.com/diarios...w.eltiempo.com

[The airline(Jetblue) plans to compete with, among other things, low prices. The value of the tickets on Jetblue is expected to be 60% lower than the market price.]

This info. comes from an interview with Sebastian White-Jetblue spokesman.

That being said, surely prices will come down with AA out of MIA w/ comp. from Spirit but it remains to be seen how/if B6 presence in MCO affects fares in NYC.

If it doesn't affect fares is 60% off enough to convince you to do a stop and go in MCO? If it does force DL/CO/etc. to lower fares is 40% off enough, 30%, 20%? At what point is it no longer worth the stop and go? This is of course being said realizing the difference in service and the varying value each of us gives to different aspects of service.

sbm12

The current low fare in the NYC-BOG market is $500. If B6 cuts 60% from that the new low fare becomes $200. That may drive flight loads but it won't be profitable. And considering that they have to ferry those bodies to MCO from another location in the NE from which they can probably extract the same $200 r/t without the additional flight, this isn't a particularly profitable move for them to make. They need something closer to $300-350 r/t just from MCO to break even.

The current low fare in that market is $422, according to FareCompare. Again, cutting 60% from that fare will not result in this being a successful route financially for B6.

Mimi Imferst

I assume the figures they were using to calculate that discount were average market price not lowest market price.

craz

As I said before AV flys into JFK, LAX, MIA & FLL all are not due to tourism but due to Biz. MCO would be a pure leisure mkt. IMO it doesnt make sense even for AV to fly into MCO when a 4-5 hr drive can be done via FLL or MIA.

CTG is a leisure mkt as well, its the same even worse humidity then MIA, been there enjoyed the Old City, might go again some day but I dont see NK fillin up its flight unless its a once a week flight and even then they will need Luck as well. AV serves CTG via BOG, not much in the way of Biz traffic.

I dont know the stats on Columbian traffic, nor from where you got yours. But most Columbians I believe dont have the funds to fly around. Lower fares arent gonna get people who have no extra $$$ to start to fly and for most probably for their 1st time ever. If they do they will probably go with their HomeTown Carrier AV for comfort sake.

I do believe that NK with CTG and B6 with BOG out of MCO will both stop these flights way before they lose too much $$$$. Im not sure how NK with FLL-BOG will play out either. DL out of JFK and CO out of IAH have much better chances of succeeding as they should be able to draw the Biz people who will pay for the Biz seat as well as some Cargo biz to boot. I dont think B6 will find much in the way of Cargo to MCO.

where B6 might have been able to do some good biz would have been to Central Am but Taca/Lacsa has that locked up and is a LCC. BTW Taca serves MIA with a stop from BOG or JFK for that matter.

I think B6 should stick to finding good City pairs here in the US and stay out of the Intl mkt.

As for The NE the main place is NYC and CO serves BOG n/s from EWR and DL will out of JFK and AV serves it out of JFK and AA serves it via MIA. I just dont see B6 getting that much out of NYC to fill its planes

craz

Doesnt sway me 1 bit. B6 might start that way but once they raise the fares and they will have to, or once those very elCheapos are bought they wont be biting at the higher fares for the rest of the seats on the flight.

as for the Biz people they want their comfort and arent looking for a great coach seat, but rather a Biz or FC seat with a nice meal.

Had B6 been able to get FLL-BOG they would have had a much better chance of the Route succeeding