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What Time Do New Flights Go On Sale?

What Time Do New Flights Go On Sale?

Old May 25, 2022, 7:38 am
  #1  
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Join Date: Nov 2018
Posts: 19
What Time Do New Flights Go On Sale?

Tomorrow (5/26) will be the first day that I can buy flights that I need for next year in April. Does anyone know what time the flights open up? Is it midnight? I am usually up early around 5:30 AM and usually the new flights are open at that time. I just want to be as quick as possible because its an expensive time to fly due to school vacations.
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Old May 25, 2022, 10:42 am
  #2  
 
Join Date: Dec 2021
Programs: AAdvantage, SkyMiles, TrueBlue
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It's actually a misnomer that the farther out you buy flights, the cheaper they are. You typically shouldn't buy flights right when they come out for sale. Most airlines automatically put flights in the most expensive fare they can when they go out for sale until an analyst has time to decide the inventory setup (fare distribution) for the flight.

JFK to MCO on JetBlue, all flights for 4/7/22 to 4/16 are in JetBlue's most expensive fare bucket.

That being said, it should be at midnight.
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marathonerNYC is offline  
Old May 25, 2022, 11:27 am
  #3  
 
Join Date: Feb 2019
Location: Connecticut
Programs: JetBlue
Posts: 120
Originally Posted by mbg1998
It's actually a misnomer that the farther out you buy flights, the cheaper they are. You typically shouldn't buy flights right when they come out for sale. Most airlines automatically put flights in the most expensive fare they can when they go out for sale until an analyst has time to decide the inventory setup (fare distribution) for the flight.

JFK to MCO on JetBlue, all flights for 4/7/22 to 4/16 are in JetBlue's most expensive fare bucket.

That being said, it should be at midnight.
.
That's not really true. I'm looking at some pretty cheap flights for where I go march and april 2023 in the neighborhood of 12,000 - 30,000 points. Same flights now in the short term are 60,000 - 136,000 points which I would never pay. The sweet spots for good prices are far out or last minute when they start to panic if the flights aren't full. In between be prepared to get screwed.
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Old May 25, 2022, 6:24 pm
  #4  
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Programs: Delta DM, Hyatt Globalist
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Originally Posted by Jimval26
.
That's not really true. I'm looking at some pretty cheap flights for where I go march and april 2023 in the neighborhood of 12,000 - 30,000 points. Same flights now in the short term are 60,000 - 136,000 points which I would never pay. The sweet spots for good prices are far out or last minute when they start to panic if the flights aren't full. In between be prepared to get screwed.
My rule of thumb for holidays or other periods of peak demand, book as early as possible. Fares almost never go down and almost always go up from when they first go on sale. For other times it's just a gamble, could go up or down depending on demand.
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Billy Mumphrey is offline  
Old May 26, 2022, 6:52 am
  #5  
 
Join Date: Dec 2021
Programs: AAdvantage, SkyMiles, TrueBlue
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Originally Posted by Jimval26
.
That's not really true. I'm looking at some pretty cheap flights for where I go march and april 2023 in the neighborhood of 12,000 - 30,000 points. Same flights now in the short term are 60,000 - 136,000 points which I would never pay. The sweet spots for good prices are far out or last minute when they start to panic if the flights aren't full. In between be prepared to get screwed.
Originally Posted by Billy Mumphrey
My rule of thumb for holidays or other periods of peak demand, book as early as possible. Fares almost never go down and almost always go up from when they first go on sale. For other times it's just a gamble, could go up or down depending on demand.
Shoot, I forgot that I learned nothing from my long tenure in revenue management optimization for various legacy carriers Jimval26 Mostly, actually, systems have found fares that follow a "u" shape, where the 5-7 months out is cheaper, to be optimal, not the "n" shape you describe, where the cheaper flights are on the ends of the spectrum.
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Old May 26, 2022, 8:34 am
  #6  
 
Join Date: Feb 2019
Location: Connecticut
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Originally Posted by mbg1998
Shoot, I forgot that I learned nothing from my long tenure in revenue management optimization for various legacy carriers Jimval26 Mostly, actually, systems have found fares that follow a "u" shape, where the 5-7 months out is cheaper, to be optimal, not the "n" shape you describe, where the cheaper flights are on the ends of the spectrum.
Shoot I forgot that I have been watching and tracking jetblue flights from/to the same destination everyday since 2019. I guess "management" wins over real life experience.
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Old May 26, 2022, 8:59 am
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Join Date: Dec 2021
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Originally Posted by Jimval26
Shoot I forgot that I have been watching and tracking jetblue flights from/to the same destination everyday since 2019. I guess "management" wins over real life experience.
Jimval26 Oh, that's actually super interesting if there's a specific route that you have found that not to be the case. Which one? All the airlines I've worked for have had automation to drive up fares when flights first come out.

Generally though, many sources agree not to buy your flights right when they come out. Have you found that not to be the case in certain regions? For my own curiosity!

https://scottscheapflights.com/guide...-book-a-flight
Booking a ticket too early in that window can be an expensive mistake—second only in cost to booking at the last minute
https://thepointsguy.com/guide/how-f...o-book-flight/
Airlines typically only release more expensive fares when the schedule opens
https://www.travelandleisure.com/tra...eapest-airfare
For domestic trips, pricing is elevated when tickets are first released, about a year before the flight. Per CheapAir.com, those prices will slowly creep downward, all the way to their lowest point sometime between 95 and 21 days (roughly three months to three weeks) before the flight, after which you'll likely see that last-minute spike in cost.
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Old Jul 5, 2022, 10:43 am
  #8  
 
Join Date: Feb 2019
Location: Connecticut
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I started collecting data but quit because I didn't want to waste my time proving what I already knew or disproving what someone else said. I booked our flights on August 20, 2021 for 14,800 points per person JFK to MBJ. ~$800 round trip for two. Since then I watched the prices fluctuate up and down but mostly up. Over the last two months the price has gone as high as 137,500 points each way. This was ~$5800 round trip for two. Yes that is a correct number. The plane isn't full yet so the price is crashing. Today 18,400 points. This was clearly an "n" shaped price curve. Now granted every flight is different but this is a general pattern that I have experienced over several flight bookings. Jetblue prices fluctuate wildly but I have gotten the best prices early on or very late. Of course if you book late you always risk not getting on a plane. Using points it's easy to book early and then cancel and rebook if the price drops. I end up doing it almost every time going for the cheapest price I can get. For this specific example I didn't need to do it because the price was very low to start with.



Last edited by Jimval26; Jul 5, 2022 at 11:16 am
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