JetBlue in west coast looking like old VX network
Oct 12, 2020, 1:02 pm
#16
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The gate area they share with Spirit and Allegiant at LAX is crowded, with a lack of seating, and not the greatest clientele (the gates that B6 uses seems to be packed together). I can't imagine a Mint customer paying $900 one way standing around the gate because Spirit customers are using all the seats. The terminal side experience needs to be focused on. I found LGB to be a much more civilised/relaxing experience terminal side involving getting baggage, getting picked up, and food choices.
Oct 12, 2020, 1:08 pm
#17
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 517
When is the last time that the airline business has gone well and been extremely profitable for longer than a few years in a row since deregulation? Once a couple years go by with record profits, you know it is only a matter of time when disaster will strike. VX made out like bandits and timed the cash out nearly perfectly. Always best to sell an airline when it looks like easy sailing in this business. There is always another road block coming.
In any case, JetBlue made out very well by “missing out” on the bad deal and look to gain all they wanted without the hassle of an acquisition while ironically making AS weaker than they otherwise would have been.
In any case, JetBlue made out very well by “missing out” on the bad deal and look to gain all they wanted without the hassle of an acquisition while ironically making AS weaker than they otherwise would have been.
Oct 12, 2020, 2:59 pm
#18
Join Date: Apr 2003
Programs: B6 Mosaic, Bonvoy LT Titanium (x SPG LT), IHG Spire, UA Silver
Posts: 5,849
AS's mistake was not the investment itself but the complete lack of a plan for what came after the purchase. They knew the fleet make up, they knew the trouble VX was having with transcons, and they knew that the VX product was aging and that their costs were relatively high. AS management team acted like they were at an auction and got caught up in the bidding war only to realize they ended up with a bunch of assets for which they had no use. LGA/DCA slots, DAL mini hub, and gates at SFO/LAX were the main assets. LGA/DCA slots were of no use for them as a West Coast based airline, DAL never made much sense, and they had -0- plan as to what to do with the assets in SFO/LAX. It is what it is...
B6 learned from VX and introduced Mint. Their previous strategy of offering a low number of frequencies on transcons with no premium cabin was a money loser. Mint changed the dynamics. AS learned the opposite lesson and decided to continue the downward spiral that VX was on in the premium transcon market while gradually making themselves irrelevant in those markets. More and more of their operation at SFO was farmed out to QX and Skywest in an attempt to save costs but aside from defending SEA, they have no game plan. They could go back to their original footprint at LAX/SFO tomorrow and few people would even notice.
B6 is in a better place with aircraft orders that are better suited for the future. They have many, many options now on the West Coast and can take advantage of opportunities as they come.
Oct 12, 2020, 3:49 pm
#19
Join Date: Mar 2011
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When is the last time that the airline business has gone well and been extremely profitable for longer than a few years in a row since deregulation? Once a couple years go by with record profits, you know it is only a matter of time when disaster will strike. VX made out like bandits and timed the cash out nearly perfectly. Always best to sell an airline when it looks like easy sailing in this business. There is always another road block coming.
In any case, JetBlue made out very well by “missing out” on the bad deal and look to gain all they wanted without the hassle of an acquisition while ironically making AS weaker than they otherwise would have been.
In any case, JetBlue made out very well by “missing out” on the bad deal and look to gain all they wanted without the hassle of an acquisition while ironically making AS weaker than they otherwise would have been.
Oct 12, 2020, 4:32 pm
#20
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...and Swissair bought a bunch of crap airlines and ended up disappearing and being replaced by LX. Etihad's investments have also been a disaster. There are countless examples of airline investments gone wrong. So AS can proudly say they failed just like many others that have gone before them.
Oct 12, 2020, 8:18 pm
#21
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Join Date: Dec 2016
Posts: 1,485
AS's mistake is overpaying for an airline of VX's size. They spend $2.6 billion for basically 4 gates at LAX and 7 gates at SFO. If the goal was to block JetBlue, it certainly did not happen.
For fun, I took a look at what JetBlue could try to fly out of both SFO and LAX if they were to deploy XLR over there.
Great Circle Mapper
SFO-HNL can easily be do-able.
PPT looks to be reachable.
Even NRT might be do-able.
TATL is too far.
Great Circle Mapper
LAX-HNL is easily do-able
PPT looks to be reachable
Japan seems to be too far.
There you have it. If JetBlue really gets ambitious in a few years after their TATL expansion, they can even try luxury vacation destinations like PPT or get in on the SFO to Tokyo market. Being able to do 1 stop to Tokyo or Tahiti from East Coast would be quite impressive. That'd be a super sized version of the VX playbook.
For fun, I took a look at what JetBlue could try to fly out of both SFO and LAX if they were to deploy XLR over there.
Great Circle Mapper
SFO-HNL can easily be do-able.
PPT looks to be reachable.
Even NRT might be do-able.
TATL is too far.
Great Circle Mapper
LAX-HNL is easily do-able
PPT looks to be reachable
Japan seems to be too far.
There you have it. If JetBlue really gets ambitious in a few years after their TATL expansion, they can even try luxury vacation destinations like PPT or get in on the SFO to Tokyo market. Being able to do 1 stop to Tokyo or Tahiti from East Coast would be quite impressive. That'd be a super sized version of the VX playbook.
Oct 13, 2020, 7:42 am
#22
Join Date: Apr 2003
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Not to mention, Air Liberte, AOM, Air Littoral, Volare, Portugalia, and LTU which were all terrible investments which dragged them down. There are countless examples including practically every take over of a California airline--Air Cal, Reno Air, etc where the route networks disappeared after they were purchased.
Oct 13, 2020, 7:50 am
#23
Join Date: Apr 2003
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A "couple of years" or "a few years" is a very vague definition, and while I agree that it's not an industry where steady, long-term success is guaranteed, there's no clear indicator suggesting VX should have got out exactly when they did. The idea that an airline could time the peaks and valleys of the airline business when two of the most recent devastating events for the industry were an unprecedented terrorist attack and a pandemic is the definition of hindsight-driven analysis.
Don't forget that after 9/11 there was the financial crisis in between. 2001-2005 were terrible years for the airlines 2008-2012 were not much better.
Oct 13, 2020, 11:51 am
#24
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AS's mistake is overpaying for an airline of VX's size. They spend $2.6 billion for basically 4 gates at LAX and 7 gates at SFO. If the goal was to block JetBlue, it certainly did not happen.
For fun, I took a look at what JetBlue could try to fly out of both SFO and LAX if they were to deploy XLR over there.
Great Circle Mapper
SFO-HNL can easily be do-able.
PPT looks to be reachable.
Even NRT might be do-able.
TATL is too far.
Great Circle Mapper
LAX-HNL is easily do-able
PPT looks to be reachable
Japan seems to be too far.
There you have it. If JetBlue really gets ambitious in a few years after their TATL expansion, they can even try luxury vacation destinations like PPT or get in on the SFO to Tokyo market. Being able to do 1 stop to Tokyo or Tahiti from East Coast would be quite impressive. That'd be a super sized version of the VX playbook.
For fun, I took a look at what JetBlue could try to fly out of both SFO and LAX if they were to deploy XLR over there.
Great Circle Mapper
SFO-HNL can easily be do-able.
PPT looks to be reachable.
Even NRT might be do-able.
TATL is too far.
Great Circle Mapper
LAX-HNL is easily do-able
PPT looks to be reachable
Japan seems to be too far.
There you have it. If JetBlue really gets ambitious in a few years after their TATL expansion, they can even try luxury vacation destinations like PPT or get in on the SFO to Tokyo market. Being able to do 1 stop to Tokyo or Tahiti from East Coast would be quite impressive. That'd be a super sized version of the VX playbook.
If the XLR can't do the west coast to Asia or the far Pacific, I don't see the point to sending them out west unless they absolutely need it for South America. Even the standard NEO should be able to do LAX-GYE.
-J.
Feb 22, 2021, 12:37 am
#25
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Happy to see B6 in this space as another high quality competitor is always good. Flew B6 for first time in 2019 - very impressive! Just booked another trip for end of year as the fares were 1/3 of UA. Just sorry to see OAK abandoned though I can't say the redeyes or LGB flights were in any way attractive.
That said I can't say AS was foolish to buy VX. Took out a key competitor and got some decent aircraft and gates. For those who remember it was reminiscent of the 80s when US bought PSA and AA bought AirCal.
B6 is sort of a better version of VX: MINT seats instead of crappy domestic F, snack bar (pre-COVID) instead of in-seat ordering which would sell out in 5 minutes, and extra legroom seat (VX had none) at a good price. Neither FF program has any real sweet spots, but at this point I'm more interested in the value for price paid.
That said I can't say AS was foolish to buy VX. Took out a key competitor and got some decent aircraft and gates. For those who remember it was reminiscent of the 80s when US bought PSA and AA bought AirCal.
B6 is sort of a better version of VX: MINT seats instead of crappy domestic F, snack bar (pre-COVID) instead of in-seat ordering which would sell out in 5 minutes, and extra legroom seat (VX had none) at a good price. Neither FF program has any real sweet spots, but at this point I'm more interested in the value for price paid.
Feb 22, 2021, 7:21 pm
#26
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Mar 5, 2021, 9:07 am
#28
Join Date: Jun 2014
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PDX-LAX is such a competitive route with AS/AA/DL all flying nonstop and LAX is a lousy connection point to the rest of B6's network, I'm not surprised they aren't flying it. Now what I would like to see is B6 tap some more of the secondary airports that have very little competition to build up their new LAX Hub.
Mar 5, 2021, 5:15 pm
#29
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Join Date: Dec 2016
Posts: 1,485
The problem is that many of the secondary airport that within 1000 miles of LAX have too much competition and are often served by RJ. JetBlue simply doesn't have an aircraft that can compete against that when considering their lack of connection options and point of sale at LAX. So, the only west coast market they can fly are large trunk routes where they grab a small portion of O&D and connection with a more cost efficient aircraft. That's why A220 is so crucial to their west coast strategy.
The most under-served markets out of LAX are small to medium sized ones that are more than 1600 miles away. The big 3 don't like to overfly hubs to these less important markets when they are gate constrained (so restricted on how many flights they can operated out of LAX). WN doesn't like to fly longer ranged flights at all, especially from LAX. So, the only airline that end up flying these are B6, AS or NK. That's why only NK is on PIT-LAX and might become the only airline on CMH-LAX. That's how AS flies LAX-RSW. That's why you see B6 the only airline trying stuff like BUF/CHS/RIC/JAX-LAX. We will see how they turn out, A220 is a great aircraft for this type of flights. It also works well to bring customers from east to west coast via LAX.
So having said all of this, I do expect them to fly most of the major west coast markets from LAX in a few years. Whether that includes PDX is a different story. Even UA doesn't fly PDX-LAX.
The most under-served markets out of LAX are small to medium sized ones that are more than 1600 miles away. The big 3 don't like to overfly hubs to these less important markets when they are gate constrained (so restricted on how many flights they can operated out of LAX). WN doesn't like to fly longer ranged flights at all, especially from LAX. So, the only airline that end up flying these are B6, AS or NK. That's why only NK is on PIT-LAX and might become the only airline on CMH-LAX. That's how AS flies LAX-RSW. That's why you see B6 the only airline trying stuff like BUF/CHS/RIC/JAX-LAX. We will see how they turn out, A220 is a great aircraft for this type of flights. It also works well to bring customers from east to west coast via LAX.
So having said all of this, I do expect them to fly most of the major west coast markets from LAX in a few years. Whether that includes PDX is a different story. Even UA doesn't fly PDX-LAX.
Mar 8, 2021, 11:12 am
#30
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Posts: 13
The problem is that many of the secondary airport that within 1000 miles of LAX have too much competition and are often served by RJ. JetBlue simply doesn't have an aircraft that can compete against that when considering their lack of connection options and point of sale at LAX. So, the only west coast market they can fly are large trunk routes where they grab a small portion of O&D and connection with a more cost efficient aircraft. That's why A220 is so crucial to their west coast strategy.
The most under-served markets out of LAX are small to medium sized ones that are more than 1600 miles away. The big 3 don't like to overfly hubs to these less important markets when they are gate constrained (so restricted on how many flights they can operated out of LAX). WN doesn't like to fly longer ranged flights at all, especially from LAX. So, the only airline that end up flying these are B6, AS or NK. That's why only NK is on PIT-LAX and might become the only airline on CMH-LAX. That's how AS flies LAX-RSW. That's why you see B6 the only airline trying stuff like BUF/CHS/RIC/JAX-LAX. We will see how they turn out, A220 is a great aircraft for this type of flights. It also works well to bring customers from east to west coast via LAX.
So having said all of this, I do expect them to fly most of the major west coast markets from LAX in a few years. Whether that includes PDX is a different story. Even UA doesn't fly PDX-LAX.
The most under-served markets out of LAX are small to medium sized ones that are more than 1600 miles away. The big 3 don't like to overfly hubs to these less important markets when they are gate constrained (so restricted on how many flights they can operated out of LAX). WN doesn't like to fly longer ranged flights at all, especially from LAX. So, the only airline that end up flying these are B6, AS or NK. That's why only NK is on PIT-LAX and might become the only airline on CMH-LAX. That's how AS flies LAX-RSW. That's why you see B6 the only airline trying stuff like BUF/CHS/RIC/JAX-LAX. We will see how they turn out, A220 is a great aircraft for this type of flights. It also works well to bring customers from east to west coast via LAX.
So having said all of this, I do expect them to fly most of the major west coast markets from LAX in a few years. Whether that includes PDX is a different story. Even UA doesn't fly PDX-LAX.