Sounds like you should go for the JAL straight to KIX then.
And if that one doesn't work, I would seriously consider the KLM via AMS into KIX option as long transit is hassle-free at AMS and the pricing works for you.
To me that is more preferable to dishing out $3000 to have to sit in a car with a stranger for 6 hours after a long flight + inspection/testing.

Flying via Europe from W.Coast USA to Jpn seems insane. But timewise it's actually pretty equivalent to going to S.Africa. Traveling to S.Africa is pretty grueling, but it's manageable by flying Premium Economy and using a transit lounge in Europe for shower and few hours' rest. Would be even better if I got to sit up front. (but I'd imagine it's pretty roomy in all economy cabins right about now)

Put it this way... if the prices were a wash between flying Y straight to NRT then take the long Covid-approved taxi ride, vs flying J via AMS to KIX and get picked up by a friend, I'd definitely go for the latter.
But this is strictly my personal preference, and your wife may feel differently.

Another question you should keep in mind is that whether/not you can count on your booked flight operating.
If it's anything like domestic USA flight, you just never know. I had a flight recently that got officially cancelled only 3 days before (was taken off booking inventory few weeks before).
For international flight, I would think it depends on the carrier. With ANA, for instance, it sounds like they have a limited schedule that they will more or less commit to through the end of May but it's still up in the air after that.

In response to post #10 above, that seems awfully expensive for coach, but I see broken fares with the outbound being booked in classes B and Y.

Would be a good time to check for frequent flyer award flights.

Paying $3000 for a car ride is crazy.

Without doubt she will be in a premium cabin. She is worth it. There are point options on JL from LAX and I don't mind driving her to LAX. In terms of cxld flights. Yes. Her SFO to KIX has cxld three times now on UA. The problem with UA is that they do not inform you of these cancellations. I literally check our UA reservations every Friday to see if there are any changes. It got to be so time consuming and useless to redo that two weeks ago I cxld all our paid reservations with UA and went for the two year electronic travel credit assuming flights are gonna be less than we paid pre virus.

Thanks again for input.

KIX just isn�t happening. If it�s urgent and worth the cost, use Narita. Else just keep trying with KIX. These are unpredictable and unforecastable times.

Airlines are selling seats using NRT as a transit stop, but that doesn't mean it's actually going to happen.

Of all the places to ask it would be FlyerTalk. What do you guys think are the chances of Japan opening to transit PAX by late June? Their state of emergency is going to run out June 1. Origin of the flight would be TPE.

The only honest answer is that nobody knows. But you knew that, didn't you?

My gut feeling ... I'd guess that there is a 50/50 chance that Japan will allow arrivals from TPE (and other "safe zone" countries - possibly Australia, New Zealand, Korea?) to make airside transits at NRT by late June.

There has been no local contagion in Taiwan for almost a month. If the decision were based on a rational assessment of health-related risks, Japan should provide visitors from Taiwan with a way to enter Japan or transit at NRT right now. But that's not how things are. I have a feeling that Japan will seek to strike bilateral agreements about travel with other countries that have similar or better risk profiles. They will probably seek reciprocity from those countries to make those agreements. And they would want to segregate transiting passengers from "safe zones" away from people who are arriving from "unsafe zones" and who need to go into quarantine for two weeks before they are let out into the community.

And even if it becomes possible to fly from TPE with a transit at NRT to say Palookaville, I think it is unlikely that the reverse route (Palookaville to NRT to TPE) would be allowed. Effectively, you would have a one way ticket to Palookaville. You might be "trapped" there with no easy way to earn your way back into the "safe" zones of the world.

I don't know, and you don't know, but I'm sure someone on this forum knows someone that's seen a memo outlining plans.

Who knows if things will go to plan? Presumably the airlines that are selling seats using NRT as a transit stop have seen plans, but as you said, that doesn't mean it's actually going to happen.

Are international-international transits at NRT/HND actually banned at the moment?

JL just cxld LAX to KIX again. Like UA no information on cancellation. I've been checking the itin every morning and evening. In this modern age with email, apps and text airlines have become the weakest link when it comes to communication.

Sorry to hear of your cancellation. Approx dates of your flights? I have a booking on JL departing USA to HND June 3, sweating like a cat in a rocking chair factory.

In general, I would assume flights not running now but in the schedule to be running in a few weeks are very likely to be cancelled.

Now early July 2020 LAX to KIX.

Has anyone transited through NRT recently? I am flying from SFO and have 3h connection. What procedures are different? Do I need to go through a health check station and/or have they brought back transit security re-screening?

Also, the NH website says that the No 5 Satellite Suites lounge is open, but the Narita website says all lounges are closed. Does anyone know the status?