Update: United sent me an email canceling the GUM-NGO leg. Might have to bite the bullet and drive to Tokyo (or pay the 80,000 for a flight to KIX).

I don't think that you can count on the KIX route not getting cancelled. I've got friends trying to plan a trip to the US and return early August, hopefully, to KIX, but their return flight has been cancelled. I think that a Tokyo airport destination has the highest probability of not getting cancelled.

UA wouldn't let me book the non-stop HNL-HND on ANA as an award, so it is now HNL-GUM/GUM-NRT/HND-ITM. They said I might get lucky and the rules might change to allow domestic transfer. Yeah, right. Two days before the Olympics start?

Other options are buying nonstop JAL or ANA for ¥54,000 and ¥58,000. But then crunching the numbers, it looks like it'll cost 33,000 to drive roundtrip to Haneda, and 36,000 to Narita. I could fly one way for ¥10,000, but I haven't found a oneway rental yet that doesn't have a huge dropoff fee.

The Hawaiian flight to KIX is now starting to look more attractive, but as you said, it might get canceled...

A waste to use 35,000 on an economy JAL ticket that costs ¥54,000.

I feel your pain. We were hoping to get back to Seattle area this summer. But the unsure situation with flights led us to not even try. Have you looked at flights routing through Korea?

I think that your estimate of cost for the round-trip drive looks about right. I'm very fortunate because a family member has a special needs certification which includes half-price ETC tolls. A big help for me when I drove up and back.

I did consider Korea or Taiwan, since there are a few flights into KIX, but the former requires roundtrip for Skyteam, and the latter I couldn't find much, plus I think I read it is not letting people transit w/o 14 day quarantine. There are so few flights from HNL these days it is tough to find any availability.

CDG-KIX, AMS-KIX and DXB-KIX seem to be operating. It's of course a very long detour if arriving from HNL and you might end up in hotel quarantine in Japan.

Yeah, I am not going to torture my son like that. An overnight in the Guam airport is much more palatable than an extra 24 hours in the air in economy.

That said, my buddy in Shiga is sending his teenage son from Michigan to NRT via DBX because it was $800 vs $2000.

So his son goes via DXB but still goes to NRT instead of KIX? That's stupid.

What's stupid about saving $1,200?

United seems to have cancelled all their GUM-NGO flights through July 31st

Hawaiian has been consistently operating HA449 HNL-KIX for april + may (tuesday only), so they're less likely to cancel (unless Japan declares a major change)

(Versus united, who basically thought they could start gum-ngo service now, but pushed it back to august)

https://flightaware.com/live/flight/HAL449/history

hard to say, definitely the TYO flights are less likely to cancel but its' more time/roughly same $

if HNL-TYO cancelled in advance, hard to say if ANA/JAL would re-route you via continental USA or just refund you. if cancelled/IRROPS sameday as flight, higher chance of this happening

I had assumed that the more expensive ticket was for something more direct than connecting via DXB.

The drive from Shiga is not as bad as from Kobe, plus my friend doesn't mind long drives. He'll probably save $800 after gas and tolls are calculated.

IF Japan allowed domestic transfers for tested, vaccinated people, I could get him home for $450 on ANA. This United award routing I have now is a 21 hour layover in GUM, which is double what outgoing flight was. I think I will bite the bullet and pay the $750 for the KIX flight. Only thing is the best date (7/20) has jumped up to $1200, so now we are looking at 7/13 or 7/27.

EDIT* Booked 7/13 for $779 Hopefully end of discussion...now the only question is where to credit the miles (AA I think). I will report if anything crops up.

Just wanted to provide an update to this post. As of today, you can still transit NRT on separate tickets and ANA will still through check to UA. Let ANA check you in for UA flight rather than doing self check in, since they might need to make adjustments when through checking and linking reservations.

Of course, if you can book single tickets, please continue to do so as it saves the hassle at check-in. I’m sure many who are doing separate routings are redeeming VS on ANA. I can’t report on other outstations but ANA staff at ORD seem to be familiar with the routine.

Also, even though technically required, airlines haven’t been checking COVID tests for passengers entering Guam when transiting Narita and originating in the CONUS, regardless if it’s separate or single itinerary. Please don’t take this as a recommendation to avoid a test, but if for some reason you can’t get a test in time, the enforcement seems to be questionable on CONUS-NRT-GUM routings.

is this with or without presenting vaccination record? (Guam quarantine requirements, waived covid test &quarantine for vaccinated individuals with proper records, so they should have checked that too)

Surprised this is the case, expected the usual rule following behavior.