The reason for ANA and JAL cancelling all flights in Narita on the 13th is not the airport operations as such that is the cause. Cargo planes are arriving. I also see Scandinavian Airlines coming in to Narita, but that is just about the only European airline coming in today.

What a convincing rebuttal, ;)

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/scotland/50028137
The Scotland vs Japan Rugby Match is to go ahead today in Yokohama

I agree.
And condolences to the families of those who died yesterday due to the typhoon.

And condolences to the families of those who died because they couldn't get timely medical services because the transport system was shut down. And condolences to the 50 families of those who died due to bath tab drownings in Japan yesterday because the government failed do take the precaution of shutting down the water system.

"Safety first" sounds great, but that's not the way people or societies actually make decisions.

Ever been inside a Japanese factory? Or more broadly, a factory in a developed country? It's all about 安全第一 and the numbers show it. Here is a little piece of data to back that up: Since 1984, 14 people have been killed by robots in the US. In 2016 alone, more than 34,000 people died in car accidents in the US. So yes, in some domains, that's how decisions are made.

Whether a human life is worth that much is a different question.

Extensive water damage across many prefectures.

In Tokyo Metropolitan area alone more than 240,000 homes are still without power as of this hour.

1. Fatality rates for occupational accidents adjusted for GDP is lower in the U.S. than in Japan if you exclude on the job auto accidents (American workers drive further and faster while on the job.) If you further exclude acts of violence and self-inflicted drug overdoses, the U.S. workplace is safer even on per worker basis.

2. I look at factory accident rates every month as part of my work. Accident rates in U.S. factories have dropped dramatically over the last 50 years. Not because of safety first but because companies are rational and the benefit to cost ratio from safety precautions in the work place is very high.

3. Adjusting for miles driven the auto-accident fatality rate is only slightly higher in the U.S. than in Japan. If you were to adjust for average speed driven, American roads are far, far safer than Japanese roads at any given speed.

Not Tokyo. Kanto yes. Tokyo is like a few thousand. And 250k as a percentage for all of Kanto is comparable to what you get with a thunderstorm in the U.S.

And you had the highest level of heavy rain warning ever issued throughout the entire Kanto area, including the all-important Metropolitan Tokyo area.

But I suppose the JMA was just reacting hysterically due to media influence. :rolleyes:

This makes no sense unless the cost of an injury or death is so high (from downtime costs to legal liabilities) that you'd be willing to worry (and spend) a lot on safety to avoid it. Which is the same thing as saying 安全第一. And this is consistent with your statements that factories in the US are safer than in Japan (which I'd be willing to believe), simply from the fact that legal liabilities from accidental injury or death are probably way higher in the US than in Japan.

In the case of the JMA, they could be all cavalier about it and it turns out to be a catastrophe. They'd be in way more hot water than if they listened to you and the typhoon turned out to be a damp squib.

The dollar cost for occupational injury is mostly medical (most companies self-insure health care for their employees) and the cost of the loss of a skilled worker. Liability is covered by workmen's comp. More than the dollar cost though, I'd say the emotional cost of having a friend or colleague get hurt or killed is what drives a lot of the decision making. Plus safety is generally very cheap to implement.

IMHO, JMA is usually pretty good on the warnings, but when the media goes berserk it forces them to be to be overly cautious. In the most recent case, the media was publishing outright lies about Hagibis and it left the JMA no room for good decision making.

I know I am looking at a fairly small area of central Tokyo by what I can see from my 14th floor home. But I was actually surprised that we did not get more rain based on the warnings that were issued. I need to see if I can find a rain gauge for this area and get an actual statistic for how much rain we actually got yesterday. I have seen worse.

Actually it looks like the flooding and loss of life outside of Tokyo was much more severe than it first appeared. Hardly a "nothing-burger." Many of my earlier comments were inappropriate and I apologize to my fellow FT-ers.

The rainfall was erratic, not like a big blanket of rain covering everything equally. You might see quite a difference between places just over 10km apart.

The worst part of this storm was the heavy rain in the mountains (Hakone got over one meter of rain in a 48 hour period), which caused the associated rivers to swell, which caused rivers to overflow their banks in 14 areas, and caused three breaks in the embankments. That's what has caused the majority of death associated with this storm thus far.

Central Tokyo OK, other areas really bad from photos. Some JR trains (Shinkanshin) have water damage from floods so full service may be slow to return as they check damage which in some areas is awful and will affect some trains that service Tokyo.

Mudslides covering the Hakone Tozan Line, so if you're going to Hakone in the near future you'll likely be using the bus.

Hokuriku Shinkansen:
Hokuriku Shinkansen runs from Tokyo to Toyama/Kanazawa. Nagano-Itoigawa portion of Hokuriku Shinkansen was damaged by the typhoon and at this moment there is no time given when this portion of Hokuriku Shinkansen will return to service.

There will be no Shinkansen service to Kanazawa and Toyama area from Tokyo on Monday, 14th. Also Shinkansen train yard at Nagano was flooded and all Shinkansen trains parked at this yard are immersed in water, which accounts from one third of trains for Hokuriku Shinkansen. No official words from JR East regarding damage to those trains, but worse case scenario is all those trains have to be scraped.

Even Ngano-Itoigawa portion of Hokuriku Shinkansen reopen for the service, it is expected that Hokuriku Shinkansen will run under limited, reduced service.

Due to this situation ANA and JAL is expecting higher than normal demand of their HND-KMQ flights and ANA is expecting same for HND-TOY.

There were some heavy flooding outside of Tokyo and some have lost their homes. Hope all people effected by this typhoon well and hope for speedy recovery.

Countless homes, buildings, cars, and trains have been immersed in flood waters.

A very difficult time for so many.
Thank you to the rescuers and others who are helping.

https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/www.fly...5b5460a8f7.jpg https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/www.fly...bece3e6785.jpg
https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/www.fly...bfdfc3b8ce.jpg

So much for 安全第一

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/20.../#.XaOjiaZcVTc

How will the shinkansen system recover from damage like this? Can a train "dry out" or is this like a total loss of a train when something like this happens?

https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/www.fly...5887ebfea4.jpg

Appears to be only 7 trainsets, out of 30 W7/E7 for the Hokuriku Shinkansen. I would imagine that others would be borrowed from elsewhere (not entirely sure on the interoperability from other lines) and frequency reduced in the meantime.

Its possible to rehab and reuse, just like any water damage. Dry it out as quickly as possible before mold & rust growth, replace water saturated fabrics and porous material, and clean/replace/rebuild contaminated non-porous surfaces and components.

Flooded trains at Nagano train yard account for one third of trains for Hokuriku Shinkansen. JR East which owns Nagano train yard has not commented about the condition of flooded trains, possible that they have not able to examin the trains due to flooding has not subsided. The flooding of Nagano train yard took place due to flooding of Chikuma River (major river) right near by the train yard, so it is not like they can pump the water out of the train yard. Entire surrounding area is flooded.

Hokuriku Shinkansen runs on 25 kV, 50 Hz alternant current between Takasaki - Karuizawa and Jyoetsu Myoukou - Itoigawa, where 25kV, 60 Hz alternate current between Karuizawa - Jyouetsu Myoukou and Itoigawa - Kanazawa. Hokuriku Shinkansen runs on dual frequency.

Tohoku Shinkansen and Jyoetsu Shinkansen runs on 25 kV, 50 Hz alternate current. Where Tokaidou Shinkansen, Sanyou Shinkansen, and Kyushu Shinkansen run on 25 kV, 60 Hz, alternate current. Hokuriku Shinkansen is the only one which runs on two different frequency, other shinkansen trains cannot run on Hokuriku Shinkansen. Hence, JR cannot borrow trains from other shinkansen to run Hokuriku Shinkansen

NHK reports that is even a bit more than that. Ten trains, with a total of 120 carriages, have been confirmed damaged.

The damaged ones include eight E7 series trains and two W7 series trains, out of the 30 used for the Hokuriku line.

Another information. Due to major mudslide JR Chuo Line Takao - Otsuku and Chuo Express Way Hachiouji Junction - Otsuki Interchange are not in service currently. Possible to take a week to reopen the road according to Central Nippon Expressway, where JR East has not commented on when the service will resume on Takao - Otsuki portion of Chuo Line.

This happens to be one of popular route to get to Mt. Fuji from Tokyo area by train or car/bus. Many visitors heading to Mt. Fuji will be impacted by this situation.

The JR route is seen here:

https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/www.fly...377c1f63cb.png

Unfortunately, this estimate proved to be far too optimistic. Death toll is nearly sixty now. They're still discovering new breaks in river embankments: over fifty counted thusfar.

The Tokaido train is running very slowly past the Tama River overpass today. The baseball fields are still pretty flooded.

Just in case anyone is curious, I managed to get out of Tokyo by speaking to an ANA desk agent, and they were saying I could buy my own flight to Bangkok without worrying about the roundtrip portion being cancelled, so I caught a last minute $700 prem economy flight with "Nokscoot" For them to rebook me on ANA they said it would be at least 4 days in Tokyo, but maybe like 5-6 lol.

If any of ya'll are in a similar situation I think they would do the same for most people even retroactively.

They said call back in a few weeks might get some points or money back. Not sure what travel insurance is going to cover.

And also condolences to anyone who had family members hurt or worse during this event.

p.s. Those "dayrooms" at Narita for only $10us an hour are a heck of a deal, I paid $30 for 3 hours and showered and slept like a baby.

Nikko:
Tobu Line between Kurihashi - Tochigi and Shin Kanuma - Shimoimaichi service is suspended. which is the route express trains to Nikko runs. Tobu Line has said will take least few more days for resumption of service but has not provided specific date yet. Visitors still have option of using JR line, from Tokyo Tohoku Shinkansen to Utsunomiya and transfer to JR Nikko line to Nikko.

Hakone:
Hakone Yumoto - Gora portion of Hakone Tozan Railway service is suspended, Odawara - Hakone Yumoto portion is running. Hakone Tozan Railway said that it is unlikely that the service will resume this year. Option for visitors to get around Hakone will be by bus.

Hokuriku Shinkansen:
JR East has said it will be another a week or two before resumption of Shinkansen service between Tokyo -Toyama/Kanazawa. Because of trains flooded at Nagano Train Yard, even after the resumption of service Hokuriku Shinkansen will run only 50-60% of regular schedule.

A Japanese friend has been sending me messages about flood damage at JR Musashi-Kosugi station. This could mean that the Shonan-Shinjuku and Yokosuka lines are affected. Also the Tokkaido shinkansen line goes right by Musashi-Kosugi but I guess that is running ok. Anyone know the details?

Myself and a friend are planning on going to Tokyo for a small vacation, and we will arrive on Friday 18th of October. Our hotel is in Ginza area. Do any of you think that this is any issue, considering the storm? I read from a previous post that Central Tokyo is supposed to be okay.

Truly sorry to to hear about the casualties from the storm :(

Both Shinkansen and Yokosuka Line tracks around Musashi-Kosugi station run on elevated concrete overpass, the track itself and passenger platform area was not flooded. It was ticketing and station entrance area on the ground floor which was flooded. Because of this flooding at ground floor when JR started to resume service on Sunday 13th Shonan-Shinjuku Line and Yokosuka Line trains skipped Musashi-Kosugi station and did not stop even though station platform itself was perfectly fine. When flood water retreated Musashi-Kosugi station reopened and Shonan-Shinjuku Line and Yokosuka Line trains started to stop again. But auto ticket gates were flooded by water and inoperable so tickets were checked manually by station staff like good old days.

Hi,

I have not heard or seen any reports of damage in central tokyo.

Enjoy Tokyo!

Regards

TBS

I live in central Tokyo, there iare no effects left of the typhoon here. The closest are around Tamagawa and Arakawa, where there was extensive flooding. Sumidagawa seems to have stayed within bounds.

Saw Hakone on NHK this morning. It looked like an absolute mess.

I have a night's stay planned for this weekend, but now I am seriously considering to cancel.

Today this nothingburger of a storm was named by the government as an official "extreme disaster", the first since the mass flooding last July that killed over 200.

Also, likely as a result of the typhoon, the royal parade schedule for this Tuesday has been pushed back to November 10th.

Came to Tokyo the day after landfall, via Kyoto, after the original plans to spend a few days in Nagano area were scuttled due to the extensive damage there. Stayed for 3 days and can say there were absolutely no issues in the city. For the concerned travelers planning on Tokyo travels soon, I would not worry an iota.
Now, unsure I would go to Hakone NP, although, the ropeway/cable car operation was suspended in the above reported section even before the 2 recent typhoons (there was Mitag a week before Hagibis) hit (this is due to volcanic activity in the area).

Hakone volcanic activity was reduced to the lowest threat level 1 just a couple weeks ago. However, many places are having trouble supplying onsen water, so they are replacing the baths with regular heated water for the time being.

Also, significant rain forecast for this weekend, raising the risk of additional mudslides.

In the end, I canceled this weekend's stay.

Unfortunate that you had to cancel this weekend's trip to Hakone, however given the current situation of Hakone I do think it is sound decision.

Hakone is a tourist area, due the typhoon Hakone will miss out on one of money making season this year, foliage season. Looks like will be difficult for Hakone to recover to pre-typhoon before end of the year. People at Hakone will be facing difficult and uncertain time.

Was going to stay at The Prince Hakone Ashinoko, but as it's right on the lake the hotel experienced significant flooding. Many of the restaurants and shops in the Hakone-en area remain closed.

I do hope the animals in the aquarium are okay.