SQTraveller

One year I would love to see these in full bloom

NewbieRunner

First forecast for 2019 published on January 10, 2019.



https://www.jrailpass.com/blog/japan...ossom-forecast

kapooncha

So the date we see is for full bloom expectation? And then we have 3-4 days after that to see them?

lobsterdog

Those dates are for first flowering. Full bloom is around 9 days later (for Tokyo at least). How many days you have to see them depends on whether there's a heavy rain around that time.

kapooncha

Let's assume the worst and say heavy rain. How many days would that give us post-first flowering?

LapLap

The “first blossom” flowers are still emerging from their bud sheathes and are pretty resilient to rain for the first few days. It’s when the majority of the flowers have fully opened (full bloom) that they become vulnerable to rain and wind.
In practice that means that first blossom happens and people await eagerly to see the trees change their livery from a dusting of pink powder, to a covering of pale pearls and then on to being coated in a cloud of candy floss - full bloom
It’s at the full bloom, or mostly full bloom, point where a storm can strip the trees of the petals.
So, if a particularly wet/windy storm comes a couple of days after “first bloom” it may not make much of a difference. However, if it happens somewhere between one week or nine days after “first blossom”, that’s it - season is over. Thankfully this is relatively rare.

Here is a story covering “first bloom” in Tokyo in 2017 to show what this stage actually looks like (and why a storm wouldn’t have an impact for the initial few days)
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/20.../#.XDxTHIqnyhA

kapooncha

So based on this first forecast, as of now (and I get it's still early), we are looking at March 31 - April 5 as ideal to be in Kyoto?

LapLap

It is still too early to rely solely on this forecast.
Your bet now is whether you think the forecast dates will stay the same or shift forwards or backwards over the next two months.

The current prediction is Kyoto first bloom 25th March, full bloom 2nd April.
Your current plans fit with this prediction perfectly, they also cover a little “date creeping” to either side.

LapLap

https://s.n-kishou.co.jp/w/sp/sakura...1#googtrans(en)

In the local search menu select
Kanto-Koshin for the Tokyo area and
Kinky for Kyoto and Osaka

HawaiiO

An update from Japan Meterological
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/20...er-usual-2019/

Seems quite early for Tokyo (Mar 22) even though Osaka(Mar 27) is further south (Mar 27)

LapLap

Chart in post #55 is a duplicate of that in post #47

kapooncha

Everyone think its safe to cancel my Kyoto hotel reservations from 3/25-3/28 and just stick with 3/29 - 4/5? With full bloom expectation on 4/2, I can't imagine needing to be there from 3/25-3/28.

LapLap

2nd Forecast (24th Jan)

Kyoto - First flowering March 26, Full Bloom April 3

LapLap

If you saw the full bloom date for Kyoto as being the 4th April, you should note that it is now the 3rd April.
The forecast is already changing and shifting. Which direction it will creep towards over the next two months is anybody’s guess right now.

kapooncha

Well it was previously 4/2 and now it's shifted a day later. Which makes sense as temperatures are quite cold right now.

I can't imagine that it would change so much as to need to be there from 3/25-3/28.