evergrn

jib71

Worst case scenario over a 5 day period is five days of disruption with a slow moving storm. Two friends of mine decided to take a cruise to Okinawa many years ago and spent most of the week heaved to at some distance from land (unable to dock) in heavy weather. In the end, they had no time to visit the islands that they had hoped to see, with the added frustration that they spent a day at the airport in fine weather, waiting for severely delayed flights home. IIRC, the storm was not exceptionally severe as measured by wind speed, rainfall, and storm surge. But it moved slowly.

• Transportation boats / ferries - Will keep running as long as sea conditions permit. It can be tricky to dock on some islands, so these services are more easily disrupted.
• Pleasure boats / snorkeling tours - Pretty certain to be cancelled as soon as wind and sea conditions make them uncomfortable (which doesn't take much)
• Beaches - Will be not worth visiting in windy / rainy conditions as the storm approaches. Completely off limits if low pressure coincides with high tides and risk of storm surge
• Pools - Likely to be stay unless there's an electrical storm nearby

My understanding is that the speed that a weather system travels is not dependent on the severity of the system (in pressure, wind speed, etc.) so the length of disruption is hard to predict, even when the storm is overhead - let alone when you're talking about a hypothetical storm sometime in August this year or next.

You can get some idea of the uncertainty from the cones that are drawn on typhoon warning maps - The meteorologists will predict with >70% accuracy that a storm will be somewhere in that cone in two or three days time, but some of the time it will defy expectations and go outside the cone or just stay where it is.

The "strength" of a tropical storm can be measured in pressure, wind speed, or storm surge (effect on sea level). The potential for damage can depend on the tides and the physical geography of the location where the storm lands. The duration of damaging rain, wind, and pressure effects (which can raise sea levels) depends on the speed that the storm is moving.

evergrn

Thanks for very comprehensive info, jibs. You talked me out of it. Would be terrible to get rained out all 5 days at a beach resort and don't want to take a chance. I didn't know that typhoons could be slow-moving regardless of its severity.

LapLap

We even built in a buffer for our Spring trip last year - made sure we had an overnight in Naha before our flight rather than assume we could reach the airport in the evening after leaving Zamami the same morning.
jib nails my own expectations for August/September (and even early October). Have "followed" the paths of many Japan bound typhoons over the years and they often travel at the same speed as a person riding a bicycle - which I find to be a useful mental image.

PAX_fips

Btw.. while trying to get kinda overview (season/strength/paths), I was looking into
Japan Meteorological Agency | RSMC Tokyo - Typhoon Center | RSMC Best Track Data (Graphics)
But you need to select every single one track, which is super tedious.
Happenstance you've some "aggregated" views there?

LapLap

Between 2002 and 2006 I lived in London and my then fianc� (now husband) lived in Tokyo. I took a very keen interest in typhoons at that time.

A decent averagish cycling speed is about 20kph and a good cyclist can pelt along at about 30kph.

I understand that typhoons (cyclones) tend to move along at an average speed of between 10 and 30 km per hour.

LapLap

Krosa currently moving towards Japan at 15Kph

evergrn

Is that supposed to be slow or fast or average for a typhoon?
The storm is supposedly ~800km in diameter, which means it'll take just over 2 days to pass through a particular location.

LapLap

I�m curious about whether my own perception of what�s �normal� holds.
Korsa, travelling at 15Kph, falls into what I�d expect (I only cycle rarely so it�s moving at my own top speed).
If we post a few examples this year, we�ll have a rough (and very imperfect) data bank for a typhoon season.

I�m not sure if my own expectation of movement at approx 20Kph is still valid a decade on.

evergrn

Oh sorry, I missed your comment upthread that a typical typhoon moves at 10-30kph.
That means, if there was a huge 1000km-diameter typhoon moving slowly at 10kph, it'd take 4 full days to pass through.

I cycle a lot although I have a low-end endurance bike... on a flat stretch, I do a steady 30kph but often have riders on racing bikes zip past me.

LapLap

There are outlier typhoons too, but since I could never personally cycle faster than 30Kph (and certainly not over any meaningful distance) my mental image of typhoons generally moving at the speed of a cyclist still works well for me

jib71

Your chance of outrunning a 30kph typhoon is slim. You might be better off cycling toward it. If you can keep up 15kph, the effective speed of 45kph will put you on the other side of the 800km diameter storm in about 18 hours - unless you reach the beach first. You might be able to take a breather when you pass under the eye.

LapLap

It's the typhoon itself I imagine whirling along on the bicycle, jib71.
Am sure there are those who might fantasise about outpeddling one of these monsters, but that's a mental exercise for those who are hard of core - not me.

jib71

I was just joking.
But since I've made that silly comment, I guess it's worth saying that there are often reports of fatal accidents involving people who went out to watch the typhoon and got swept out to sea or hit by an object that was flying through the air. It is not a good idea to be outside during these storms.

freecia

Surfers who look for typhoon waves are nuts. I can imagine some surfer with a surfboard strapped onto his bike trying to head for the beach in this kind of wind.

Anyhow, I wanted to put a few tips I've gleaned as an armchair traveler who lives in non-hurricane area as knowing what to do when "it is a small one" manages some of the anxiety and stress.

1. Stay away from rivers and large bodies of water as mentioned and from areas prone to mudslides
2. Prepare for no power or water (electric pump) - charge mobile devices, wash self, fill tub to water flush toilet.
3. Stock some bottled water and shelf stable food. If you have perishables that will go bad without power, cook or eat them first.
4. Locate emergency exit & stairs in case you need to evacuate or leave before the power comes back
5. Locate the flashlight. All business hotel rooms and ryokan have them (at least that I've been to). Perhaps buy extra batteries, too.
6. Close the curtains to avoid debris or broken glass. If your room windows open, close them.
7. Monitor train & airline websites in case of travel interruptions. JR Twitter accounts or JP site might have more current or comprehensive data so worth checking both.
8. People do go out if it isn't too bad but avoid long distance travel in areas which will probably be impacted to avoid being stranded if things get worse.

Some less obvious (to me) ones:

1. Typhoons can be loud. Earplugs might not be a bad idea.
2. If you have a rental car, fill the tank and perhaps go park it in an indoor lot to save yourself some trouble
3. Clothing might take a while to air dry indoors due to high humidity. A few trash bag liners will help keep stuff in a bag/suitcase dry if it is safe to go out but still raining buckets.
4. Charge up your power bank as mobile disaster warnings will probably run down your phone's battery. As will the insomnia browsing due to the noise (see #1 )
5. Bed under the window? Consider moving the bed/mattress/futon if possible. If you're checking in, this also might not be a bad time to request a lower floor if possible as the elevator power might go out and you have to take the stairs. The buildings are seismically built to sway which gets worse with height in high winds.
6. Tidy things up in case you're told to evacuate your room or need to get to the bathroom when there's no power.