Good morning/afternoon/evening FlyerTalk experts,

I am arriving into London Heathrow from Vancouver, Canada on Air Canada flight 854, arriving Saturday, April 4th, 2020 with an ETA of 11:50 am.
I am a UK Citizen, with a UK passport and will only be travelling with 1 carry on bag, and nothing to declare at Customs.
I have already booked my Heathrow Express ticket to get to Paddington.
My question is ... is there any way to know how long it is likely to take for me to get from disembarking the plane to arriving at Paddington?
I am on an 'only a small window' to potentially meet friends before getting ready for an evening event and I'd like to be able to offer a time to meet them in/near Paddington.
Any help at all will be gratefully accepted.

Cheers
Andrew

Trains depart T2&3 at :02 :17 :32 :47 with travel time of 15 minutes to Paddington - all that is left for you is to do the maths. I have personally done the whole thing in less than half an hour.

Thanks - I appreciate your speedy reply.. The Heathrow Express section (around 15 minutes) is my one 'known' variable. I am really trying to establish how long it will take from disembarking the plane to arriving at the artform for the Heathrow Express
Again ... thanks. 👍😁👍

It is very simple - you cannot "establish" that, you can use "reasonable" assumptions to make an "educated" guess but there is no way to predict which way things may go on your date of travel (including the on-time arrival of your own flight). My personal experiences range from an entirely empty immigration hall to nearly one hour ...

Thank you again ... I guessed it may be a 'rather vague' reply as Heathrow is so crazy busy.

The flight could arrive an hour early or three hours late. It could be cancelled. You might have a medical diversion to Shannon. Maybe the door won't open when you get to LHR. It could be that you're given a bus gate. There is no way to know for certain. If your flight arrives bang on time and you are the first off the plane, and there are no other people waiting at the e-readers, you can be landside in 12 mins, walk another seven or so to the HEX, wait on average eight minutes, and then ca 17 mins into Paddington. So, best case, 45 mins. Worst case, never. I don't have the data to plot all likely outcomes.