Kylash

Hi all,

I am in the preliminary stages of planning a Thailand trip for late November. I have a return flight (BKK-NYC) booked for 2 in J on Cathay, but I'm struggling with the outbound flight.

It looks like my options for two in J are:
(1) Qatar JFK - DOH - HkT (140k American)
(4) Emirates JFK - CXB - HKT (105k SPG transferred to 130k Japan Mileage Bank based on a distance of 9,890 miles)
(5) Cathay JFK - HKG - HKT (80k SPG transfered to 100k Alaska or 140k American)
(6) Cathay EWR - HKG - HKT (80k SPG transferred to 100k Alaska or 140k American)

None currently have J space available. I also do not currently have enough points/miles to book the two outbound J seats, so I need to prioritize where to build points over the next few months.

I need advice regarding:
(1) Which of those is most likely to have additional J seats released between now and November?
(2) Even if Emirates J seats opened, the fuel surcharge to book via Japan Mileage Bank would likely be ~1000?

Thanks in advance for your help!

WorldLux

Well, how many more points do you need to build up? And how much can you build up per month? November is 7 months away and chances are that there won't any award space available at short notice. Even if there is some space at short notice, you'll probably have 5 or 6 months max to build up those points.

Kylash

Thanks for the reply.

Currently have, 28k SPG, 38k American, 226k Delta, 40k Citi TY, 47k Amex MR, 25k Chase UR.

Will have 100k total SPG by June/July and could also have 140k total AA by June.

LondonElite

I don't think anyone can give you an honest answer to (1), which makes it hard to advise what strategy to follow.

Kylash

Fair point, maybe it is not possible to answer. I understand my question is asking for speculation, and there is never certainly dealing with award space.

Let me rephrase. Assuming I had enough points to redeem any of those options, and I believe I have more than 50% chance of two J seats opening up on one of those flights between June and Nov 16/17 (date of departure). Would you say I am being too optimistic?

LondonElite

I don't know, but you could start by getting an EF subscription and setting some alerts. It won't do you any good until you have the points, but then you can shoot fast.

Darlox

I'm not sure "optimistic" is really the right word here. I'd maybe go with "risky" or "speculative"... Bear in mind that even if space opens up, you're likely not the only person chasing it -- so to get 2 J seats on specific flights is kind of like waiting for Godot.

You'd be better off looking for alternatives like BKK or HKG, where you could confirm space now, and then purchasing a separate ticket (or booking a Y award) for that final short hop. You may also need to add stops to shorten segment lengths, since J seats on Ultra-long-haul flights like NYC-HKG are likely going to be considerably harder to come by than a collection of shorter hops like NYC-LAX-NRT-HKT or something, which are routes with higher frequencies and more connecting options.

Sort of just need to ask yourself if you want to get there by your preferred routing, or if you want to get there _period_, and book whatever you can, whenever you can. Waiting and hoping is not usually a winning strategy, when you need _2_ seats to open up on this kind of timeframe.

LondonElite

Solid advice in my opinion.