FormerAA_DFW

When they first announced that they were going to go independent, I wanted to root for them to succeed. And then I saw their business plan...

My chief regret is that I didn't have the cojones to short their stock immediately. There were so many flaws in the plan, that I figured that they would come to their senses and either rejoin the UAX fold or would be open to a quiet takeover.

I wish that I had saved the Powerpoint presentatations that they used to have posted on their website. They did make for entertaining reading.

Every iteration of their plan seemed to feature higher aircraft utilization (10-14 hrs/day), quicker turns, more markets, etc. In looking at their initial route map, it appeared that they were making a conscious effort to pick a fight with every carrier in the US simultaneously. Whatever happened to "choose your battles."

Fuel prices may apply the coup de grace, but all of the other wounds were self-inflicted.

whlinder

I've got a copy of one of them; PM me your email and I'll send it to you.

It was entertaining back then and even more so now.

StSebastian

I think they really thought all these DC metro people would drive all the way out to fly from IAD. Connecting traffic wasn't a huge element in at least one of the plans I saw -- it was all these people in DC that would fly on DH everywhere because they didn't currently have cheap options, and that's why they didn't advertise as much at the other stations in the network. The failure is that there aren't enough people in northern VA to support that type of airline, and the business travelers to DC would much rather go to DCA.

If there had been some way to do this at DCA, I'd give them a much better chance just because of the subway connection, but it's just too difficult to get to IAD from metro DC. Even to go to New York, it's faster to take the slow Amtrak to Penn Station than drive out to IAD and take the RJ to JFK and then subway into the city.

L Dude 7

Being curious, I looked at in detail. Two options for traveling from Union Station to Penn Station, walk up fares.
Union Station-IAD 42 mins (google maps)
IAD-JFK 1:10 [up to 1:24 scheduled] - $219.20
JFK-Airtrain to Jamaica- 14 mins - $5
LIRR - Jamaica to Penn Station - 21 minutes - $7
Total time: 2:41
+ arrive 30 minutes early at airport :30
+ exit plane at travel to airtrain :15
+ wait for LIRR :05
Grand total: 3:31 (most optimal transfers)
Total cost: $231.20 (assuming free drop off at IAD)

Regional Train - 3:15 [range from 3:10-3:20] - cost $80
+ arrive 10 minutes early at Union Station
Total : 3:25

TechBoy

You've got to be kidding. At IAD? Between the security lines and the moon buggies, you need to allocate at least an hour.

audio-nut

What GDS is WN in? I know they publish their Gov't fares in ATP but I don't think they are in a GDS.

I agree with you that DH should have been in all GDS's from the get go. For an airline of their size with no (public) service history not to be in a GDS is downright stupid.

L Dude 7

Sabre. I just had our travel agent book some WN flights for us. The WN flight was the first one that came up when looking in the GDS. (It probably helped that they were the only nonstop on the route.) However, as I recall, it only shows availability - the flights still need to be booked with WN. (though I may be wrong on this.)

whlinder

You used to be able to get WN flights on itn.net before itn changed formats.

Cohiba

I'd go with EWR. Always seems much eaiser and faster for getting to Manhattan.


Cheers.

L Dude 7

Isn't EWR-Airtrain-NJTransit about the same time (and cost) as JFK-Airtrain-LIRR?

Of course EWR-NJTransit Bus-PATH train is a lot faster than NYTransit Bus to Subway - especially if you are going downtown. (Though with a Metrocard NYTransit ends up a little cheaper.)

However, unless you are right next to Dulles, its not that great to fly.

Cohiba

Agreed, flying can be a pain and on this route rail makes much sense. However, there are a couple issues. Head over to the Amtrak forum and you'll see I've been a big supporter in the past. Yet, the inconsistency of service is troublesome. ATC delays can be horrible in the NE, but not as bad as some of the delays I've experienced on the NEC. Also, for those buying well in advance flying is usually cheaper. For those buying close in, I think the airlines flying WAS-NYC are competing more against the Acela/Metroliner. This takes the rail fare to $157. Still less, but at least more in range.


Cheers.

L Dude 7

Service also becomes an issue. A first class Acela walk up is less than a FlyI walk up - and a whole lot more productive and comfortable. (You can actually get work done easily on those long Amtrak delays. It is much more difficult when on the plane, or waiting at the airport.)

I don't think IAD could ever succeed as a large domestic hub airport. Sure, it is in booming northern viriginia. However, it lacks good transit options, and really has a small area to draw passengers from. The main advantage it has are flight restrictions at DCA. United can support the short haul service from IAD because it is used to fill long haul flights that can't go to DCA. However, without the long haul's there doesn't seem to be much hope. FlyI appeared to be following this model. However, they still have not been able to build up the long-haul service to justify the short hauls.

Cohiba

I don't disagree. I've spent plenty of time working through those delays, but they are still frustrating. BTW, Acela walk up for FC is more than FLYi. DH with taxes to EWR or JFK is $219.20. The Acela peak First fare is $236. It is amazing to see what people will pay for that short flight to the NYC area and they do pay it.


Cheers.

StSebastian

I'd looked at this because I originally suggested to some people that DH would see an increase in travel with the Acela system down, and that was disputed by a few people. When I looked into it in more detail, I found what was noted before -- the timing was basically the same and the cost much cheaper for the train, especially for people in metro DC instead of the northern VA population.

I'd looked specifically about JFK as a Acela replacement when that came up, but EWR should be just as valid for the pricing/timing comparison noted earlier. Basically, I realized there wouldn't be that many people switching from Amtrak to DH because they had to take the regular train instead of Acela (which is only a few minutes faster on DC -> NYC).

prhs1989

http://www.marketwatch.com/tvradio/p...7D&siteid=yhoo

The second half discusses the possibility of Independence in bankruptcy.