Break Even Load Factor

 
Old Mar 7, 05, 1:07 pm
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Break Even Load Factor

I had not heard this before, but it is great news if it is true.
-spam

From the Knoxville News Sentinel
www.knoxnews.com
Business Briefs from March 4

Independence Air closer to needed passenger count

FLYi Inc. reported an air load factor of 62.9 percent for February on Thursday, the highest for its low-fare carrier Independence Air during the first eight months of operation.

The load factor in January was 42 percent. The load factor represents the number of seats filled on flights. Independence Air Chairman and CEO Kerry Skeen has said the airline needs a load factor in the 70 percent range to break even.

Skeen said February was the first month the airline flew under its restructured schedule. Independence Air offers 41 destinations, including Knoxville.
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Old Mar 8, 05, 8:45 am
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Originally Posted by spampurse
I had not heard this before, but it is great news if it is true.
-spam

From the Knoxville News Sentinel
www.knoxnews.com
Business Briefs from March 4

Independence Air closer to needed passenger count

FLYi Inc. reported an air load factor of 62.9 percent for February on Thursday, the highest for its low-fare carrier Independence Air during the first eight months of operation.

The load factor in January was 42 percent. The load factor represents the number of seats filled on flights. Independence Air Chairman and CEO Kerry Skeen has said the airline needs a load factor in the 70 percent range to break even.

Skeen said February was the first month the airline flew under its restructured schedule. Independence Air offers 41 destinations, including Knoxville.

It's actually a misquote from the teleconference during the restructuring. Skeen said that after all the crew retraining is complete for the CRJ and A319s and then if RJ utilization increases and load factor stays above 70% they will show a profit. Also talked about how the price of oil is still way to high.

BBB
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Old Mar 13, 05, 10:32 pm
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Originally Posted by BigBeerBelly
It's actually a misquote from the teleconference during the restructuring. Skeen said that after all the crew retraining is complete for the CRJ and A319s and then if RJ utilization increases and load factor stays above 70% they will show a profit. Also talked about how the price of oil is still way to high.

BBB

Your memory is a lot closer to the truth than the Knoxville News Sentinel. The way I recall things is an analyst asked "what is your BELF?" and DH stated they could not give a meaningful number since it would be above THE goal but was going to get better, etc etc. I think I have the transcript at work, so if I can find it I will post the exact quote tomorrow.

edit: Ooohh, my 500th post; not bad for 3 years.

Last edited by audio-nut; Mar 15, 05 at 12:29 pm
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Old Mar 15, 05, 12:28 pm
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Question : Tony Cristello - BB&T Capital Markets
It seems like your load factors are showing some improvement, even more than you thought. Looking out, where do you see your breakeven load factor eventually materializing? Revenue trends, obviously your costs aren't matching up. I'm wondering when do you plan on putting up some profitable numbers?

Answer: Kerry Skeen
In terms of breakeven load factor, a lot of that hinges on fuel and where fuel is. As I said earlier, as we work through the transition issues, we expect to be a pretty efficient carrier by the start of 3Q, by mid-year. Then we have some ability to improve that, obviously, as we continue to take the A319. If we're able, and with improving loads, I think there's a decent chance we will be able to improve our CRJ utilization, because we have reduced that pretty substantially for February, and that has had a negative impact on unit cost. With those two things going, we feel pretty good about where our costs are going. As I said earlier, the Airbus flying, we'll put our costs up against anybody out there in terms of what it costs us to fly an narrowbody airplane. In terms of breakeven, again, depending on fuel, we've always said, and there is really, I don't think, any change in that, that we see breakeven load factors, we had originally said on a system wide basis that we need to be in the 70%, low 70s, high 60s, depending on where fuel is. So obviously with fuel where it is now, it's probably north of 70%. But 70% is a pretty good benchmark for us as we get past the transition issue, when we see our cost at a more ongoing steady state level.
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Old Mar 15, 05, 11:02 pm
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They made 70% or better on my four flights last weekend (worst was 71% on a red-eye back from Vegas on a weeknight), and other RJ flights that I was counting out of IAD during my connection were all 70% or higher. Yes, that's just one small data point, but it's a lot more than the loads I was seeing during flights a few months prior.
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Old Mar 17, 05, 12:39 pm
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FlyI faces cash crisis
NEW YORK, March 17 (Reuters) - Low-cost airline Independence Air, which is controlled by FLYi Inc. (FLYI.O: Quote, Profile, Research) , said in a regulatory filing that is under pressure to boost revenues and cut cuts to avoid a "liquidity crisis," and its shares fell 5.6 percent on Thursday.

Faced with fierce competition and record fuel prices, Independence Air has seen revenue "falling significantly below anticipated levels and the company expending cash at an unsustainable rate," the company said in the filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission made late on Wednesday.

Dulles, Virginia-based Independence said in the filing that it had pledged nearly all of its assets in a recently completed restructuring, risking a cash shortfall if passenger traffic remains weak and fuel costs remain at their current record high levels.
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Old Mar 18, 05, 9:11 am
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When i flew with them a couple of weeks ago, the flight was absolutely packed. There was no room for another person. I thought that was a good sign for them..
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Old Mar 18, 05, 1:52 pm
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IN a month loaded with vacation travel, 62.9 is a horrible LF.

And for those who say it's only 7 points below BELF, remember that this is 10% of the plane that's empty -- and at loads that low, there's also very little pricing power.
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Old Mar 18, 05, 2:54 pm
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Originally Posted by CO FF
IN a month loaded with vacation travel, 62.9 is a horrible LF.
Ok... 62.9% is not a great load factor, but it is a significant improvement from the previous LF numbers. Also, it is relatively close to other majors (Southwest 63.3%, American 72.2%, Continental 74.4%, etc...), considering it is the 9th month of operation and the majority of vacation travel really doesn't happen until March. Just like any other figure, you can read what you want into it... I think it is good considering the numbers are improving with March expected to be even better.
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Old Mar 18, 05, 7:29 pm
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I think we'll see the numbers go up for the next few months and will probably be fine through the summer...it's this coming fall that I'd be worried about. Hopefully they'll have enough traction to get people to continue booking with them through the fall and holiday season.
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Old Mar 20, 05, 7:49 pm
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Originally Posted by spampurse
Ok... 62.9% is not a great load factor, but it is a significant improvement from the previous LF numbers. Also, it is relatively close to other majors (Southwest 63.3%, American 72.2%, Continental 74.4%, etc...), considering it is the 9th month of operation and the majority of vacation travel really doesn't happen until March. Just like any other figure, you can read what you want into it... I think it is good considering the numbers are improving with March expected to be even better.
Don't compare DH's LF to WN. WN uses gates(RT, AP, etc) for their fares while DH has a basically OW walk-up structure. Frankly their loads are still awful especially considering they have had so many $44 fares sales.
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Old Mar 22, 05, 1:29 pm
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Looks like Independence is doing well load-wise for the upcoming Easter weekend.

My mother wants me to come and visit for the weekend (she lives near SAV), so I checked flyi.com and all flights from IAD to SAV on Thursday and Friday are SOLD OUT. I could fly United Express for $500 r/t, but I'd much rather drive the 9 hours each way than endure the "G" terminal at Dulles. Seriously.
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