Better off cash or points?
#1
Original Poster
Join Date: Jan 2004
Location: NY
Programs: AA, Hilton
Posts: 1,579
Better off cash or points?
We have 890000 Hilton points and I would ideally like to use them on a vacation splurge somewhere.
But just found we have to stay at a Homewood suites for 3 nights. Either 209 a night or 50000 pts a night. I don’t know the metric but it sounds like it’s a waste of points for a Homewood, right?
But just found we have to stay at a Homewood suites for 3 nights. Either 209 a night or 50000 pts a night. I don’t know the metric but it sounds like it’s a waste of points for a Homewood, right?
#2
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: Barcelona, London, on a plane
Programs: BA Silver, TK E+, AA PP, Hyatt Globalist, Marriott LT Plat, Hilton Diamond
Posts: 13,053
Is the $209 pre or post tax?
If pre, it's in the range of where I would try to burn some points. (0.4-0.5 cents) But if you've got the Aspire credit card, the current promo offers 54 points per $, which means you probably want to pay cash in marginal situations...
If pre, it's in the range of where I would try to burn some points. (0.4-0.5 cents) But if you've got the Aspire credit card, the current promo offers 54 points per $, which means you probably want to pay cash in marginal situations...
#3
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: Falkirk, Scotland,VS Red, BA Gold, HH Diamond,UK Amex Plat
Programs: Master of the Privy Purse des Muccis
Posts: 17,921
Hi
At 209 per night I would probably use cash.
If you have hh status you could get a 5th night free at other hotels ( ie only pay for 4 nights but stay for 5 nights- standard rooms) which might be a better use of points
Regards
tbs
At 209 per night I would probably use cash.
If you have hh status you could get a 5th night free at other hotels ( ie only pay for 4 nights but stay for 5 nights- standard rooms) which might be a better use of points
Regards
tbs
#4
Original Poster
Join Date: Jan 2004
Location: NY
Programs: AA, Hilton
Posts: 1,579
209 pre cash. I’m figuring we can use 900k pout. S for some really nice properties. Have Hilton Diamond cc too
#5
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: HH Diamond, Marriott Gold, IHG Gold, Hyatt something
Posts: 33,544
We have 890000 Hilton points and I would ideally like to use them on a vacation splurge somewhere.
But just found we have to stay at a Homewood suites for 3 nights. Either 209 a night or 50000 pts a night. I don’t know the metric but it sounds like it’s a waste of points for a Homewood, right?
But just found we have to stay at a Homewood suites for 3 nights. Either 209 a night or 50000 pts a night. I don’t know the metric but it sounds like it’s a waste of points for a Homewood, right?
Also take into consideration points you’d earn for the stay, especially if you have a Hilton credit card.
For me, the sweet spot on Hilton award redemptions is the 5th night free. I try to book in 5 night blocks to get the 20% points discount on the last night.
#6
Join Date: Oct 2019
Programs: Flying Blue, Hilton Honors, Amtrak Guest Rewards
Posts: 2,407
The only thing I would add is that carrying a large point balance could definitely be argued to be suboptimal: the points are unlikely to dramatically increase in value. So if a redemption is at all close to reasonable value and is a sufficiently small percentage of your balance, it won't make a huge difference.
The rough heuristic I've settled on is (I very rarely spend 5 nights at the same property, so 5th night free isn't really relevant for me)
* take the amount of points you'd get after promos and credit card (if paying with a non-HH credit card, you may want to consider non-HH points/cashback/miles as an offset)
* add that to the redemption rate (you might multiply the redemption rate by 25% if your expected redemption pattern is to make use of 5th night free)
* subtract some percentage of your point balance corresponding to how much you subscribe to earn-then-burn (I personally use 10%... if your intention is to wait a long while for an amazing value, then a much lower percentage is relevant)
* divide the total paid (including taxes etc.) by the previous result
* If it's less than 0.5 cpp, then definitely pay the cash rate (from my perspective you're buying points at their fair value and getting lodging for free), if it's more than 1 cpp, definitely redeem, and in between is a judgement call
So working for your example with my level of earn-then-burn and 5NF preference:
Diamond + Aspire, current promo (assuming), $209 cash rate, 50k points
Assumption $21 in taxes
* Base earnings + Diamond bonus + promo bonus + Aspire = 54 pts/$ => 11,286 pts + 294 pts for taxes on Aspire => 11,580 pts
* plus 50k pts => 61,580
* minus 90k pts => 0 pts
* $230/0 => infinite => redeem
But if your plan is to save for 5+ nights in the Maldives, your earn-then-burn preference might be 1%
* 11,580 as before
* plus 62,500 pts => 74,080
* minus 9k pts => 65,080
* $230/65,080 => 0.35 cpp => pay the cash
In theory this approach can choose between cash rates, at least those with similar cancellation policies. The double point rates which are typically 10% more than the Honors discount rate per night often end up being my cash rates of choice, though with the new breakfast/dining credit, I might consider breakfast included or extra credit rates at those properties. In this case, the likely pricing for the double point rate ($230 + $23 tax) wouldn't affect things much.
In theory this sort of thing could be applied to Points + Money bookings to find a sweet spot, but the math would get quite complex, so I generally don't bother.
The rough heuristic I've settled on is (I very rarely spend 5 nights at the same property, so 5th night free isn't really relevant for me)
* take the amount of points you'd get after promos and credit card (if paying with a non-HH credit card, you may want to consider non-HH points/cashback/miles as an offset)
* add that to the redemption rate (you might multiply the redemption rate by 25% if your expected redemption pattern is to make use of 5th night free)
* subtract some percentage of your point balance corresponding to how much you subscribe to earn-then-burn (I personally use 10%... if your intention is to wait a long while for an amazing value, then a much lower percentage is relevant)
* divide the total paid (including taxes etc.) by the previous result
* If it's less than 0.5 cpp, then definitely pay the cash rate (from my perspective you're buying points at their fair value and getting lodging for free), if it's more than 1 cpp, definitely redeem, and in between is a judgement call
So working for your example with my level of earn-then-burn and 5NF preference:
Diamond + Aspire, current promo (assuming), $209 cash rate, 50k points
Assumption $21 in taxes
* Base earnings + Diamond bonus + promo bonus + Aspire = 54 pts/$ => 11,286 pts + 294 pts for taxes on Aspire => 11,580 pts
* plus 50k pts => 61,580
* minus 90k pts => 0 pts
* $230/0 => infinite => redeem
But if your plan is to save for 5+ nights in the Maldives, your earn-then-burn preference might be 1%
* 11,580 as before
* plus 62,500 pts => 74,080
* minus 9k pts => 65,080
* $230/65,080 => 0.35 cpp => pay the cash
In theory this approach can choose between cash rates, at least those with similar cancellation policies. The double point rates which are typically 10% more than the Honors discount rate per night often end up being my cash rates of choice, though with the new breakfast/dining credit, I might consider breakfast included or extra credit rates at those properties. In this case, the likely pricing for the double point rate ($230 + $23 tax) wouldn't affect things much.
In theory this sort of thing could be applied to Points + Money bookings to find a sweet spot, but the math would get quite complex, so I generally don't bother.
#7
Join Date: May 2012
Location: AMS
Programs: BA KL LH Hilton Marriott
Posts: 1,233
The only thing I would add is that carrying a large point balance could definitely be argued to be suboptimal: the points are unlikely to dramatically increase in value. So if a redemption is at all close to reasonable value and is a sufficiently small percentage of your balance, it won't make a huge difference
.
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#8
Join Date: Oct 2019
Programs: Flying Blue, Hilton Honors, Amtrak Guest Rewards
Posts: 2,407
I really disagree but it depends on your situation and preferences. I keep above 1 million points in my account because I don't need to use them, even if they devalue. I am sure.. without evidence, that they are the reason that I consistently receive VIP treatment wherever I go. Upgrades.. suites, benefits. It's a choice I make and enjoy.
#9
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Jul 1999
Location: Ewa Beach, Hawaii
Posts: 10,909
I really disagree but it depends on your situation and preferences. I keep above 1 million points in my account because I don't need to use them, even if they devalue. I am sure.. without evidence, that they are the reason that I consistently receive VIP treatment wherever I go. Upgrades.. suites, benefits. It's a choice I make and enjoy.
#10
Original Poster
Join Date: Jan 2004
Location: NY
Programs: AA, Hilton
Posts: 1,579
Thanks for all the replies. Didn’t need the room after all that. We “fell” into being Hilton Diamonds this year since we needed a place to stay for 3 months and also got that Hilton card (I don’t recall if it’s Aspire but it’s 450/yr).
We figure that after 3-4 months hotel living plus working through the pandemic, may as well rack up points for a post pandemic splurge at a really nice property ! (That would be another thread!)
We figure that after 3-4 months hotel living plus working through the pandemic, may as well rack up points for a post pandemic splurge at a really nice property ! (That would be another thread!)
#11
Join Date: Aug 2017
Programs: Hilton Diamond, IHG Spire Ambassador, Global Entry
Posts: 2,875
While you didn't end up needing it, I would give one more example.
I don't believe it was the best valuation. However, when redeeming Hilton points, be prepared the accept the lowest room type. Otherwise, even the slightest upgrade can be a ridiculous point requirement. In a Homewood, it is generally a lot more acceptable to take any room IMO. One thing to consider when sitting on a bunch of points.
I don't believe it was the best valuation. However, when redeeming Hilton points, be prepared the accept the lowest room type. Otherwise, even the slightest upgrade can be a ridiculous point requirement. In a Homewood, it is generally a lot more acceptable to take any room IMO. One thing to consider when sitting on a bunch of points.
#12
Join Date: Aug 2020
Location: Somewhere in the Mid-Atlantic
Programs: Hilton Honors Diamond
Posts: 619
I assume there are properties/people out there that take point balance into account but I've never met or heard of one.
FWIW, million point members are fairly common. I see them regularly. Going over 5 or even 10 million is when you start getting into rarefied territory. Even then, they get what they reserve.
#13
Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 4,872
Not exactly sure how you'd like to receive "proof", but as a LD with a consistently very high points balance (frequent travel by wife and I, mutual fund account, meeting/event points, earn faster than burn), I often receive comments from FD staff about the balance and the additional upgrade/amenity/freebie that they're providing specifically because of the points total. This occurs at brands across the HH spectrum and at properties where I am not a frequent or returning guest.
#14
Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: NOVA
Programs: IHG Rewards Platinum, Marriott Gold, Hilton Diamond, UA/DL/AA Back of the plane...
Posts: 4,613
Another thing to consider is if the 209 rate is refundable. I tend to compare semi-flex rates to the point usage decision. Unless I am 100% sure I will not cancel, which has been rare in the last few years.