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Old Oct 22, 2021, 7:58 am
  #1  
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Better off cash or points?

We have 890000 Hilton points and I would ideally like to use them on a vacation splurge somewhere.

But just found we have to stay at a Homewood suites for 3 nights. Either 209 a night or 50000 pts a night. I don’t know the metric but it sounds like it’s a waste of points for a Homewood, right?
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Old Oct 22, 2021, 8:02 am
  #2  
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Is the $209 pre or post tax?

If pre, it's in the range of where I would try to burn some points. (0.4-0.5 cents) But if you've got the Aspire credit card, the current promo offers 54 points per $, which means you probably want to pay cash in marginal situations...
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Old Oct 22, 2021, 8:04 am
  #3  
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Hi

At 209 per night I would probably use cash.

If you have hh status you could get a 5th night free at other hotels ( ie only pay for 4 nights but stay for 5 nights- standard rooms) which might be a better use of points

Regards
tbs
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Old Oct 22, 2021, 8:07 am
  #4  
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Originally Posted by craigthemif
Is the $209 pre or post tax?

If pre, it's in the range of where I would try to burn some points. (0.4-0.5 cents) But if you've got the Aspire credit card, the current promo offers 54 points per $, which means you probably want to pay cash in marginal situations...
209 pre cash. I’m figuring we can use 900k pout. S for some really nice properties. Have Hilton Diamond cc too
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Old Oct 22, 2021, 8:12 am
  #5  
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Originally Posted by the phoenix
We have 890000 Hilton points and I would ideally like to use them on a vacation splurge somewhere.

But just found we have to stay at a Homewood suites for 3 nights. Either 209 a night or 50000 pts a night. I don’t know the metric but it sounds like it’s a waste of points for a Homewood, right?
I value Hilton points at .4-.5 of a cent. So you’re pretty close to your $209 value. (.4=$200, .5=$250 a night) Always look at your total price including taxes that you would pay on a cash stay. Also, check your nights one or two at a time. Sometimes they’ll show one night at 40k, and others at 50k.

Also take into consideration points you’d earn for the stay, especially if you have a Hilton credit card.

For me, the sweet spot on Hilton award redemptions is the 5th night free. I try to book in 5 night blocks to get the 20% points discount on the last night.
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Old Oct 22, 2021, 9:05 am
  #6  
 
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The only thing I would add is that carrying a large point balance could definitely be argued to be suboptimal: the points are unlikely to dramatically increase in value. So if a redemption is at all close to reasonable value and is a sufficiently small percentage of your balance, it won't make a huge difference.

The rough heuristic I've settled on is (I very rarely spend 5 nights at the same property, so 5th night free isn't really relevant for me)

* take the amount of points you'd get after promos and credit card (if paying with a non-HH credit card, you may want to consider non-HH points/cashback/miles as an offset)
* add that to the redemption rate (you might multiply the redemption rate by 25% if your expected redemption pattern is to make use of 5th night free)
* subtract some percentage of your point balance corresponding to how much you subscribe to earn-then-burn (I personally use 10%... if your intention is to wait a long while for an amazing value, then a much lower percentage is relevant)
* divide the total paid (including taxes etc.) by the previous result
* If it's less than 0.5 cpp, then definitely pay the cash rate (from my perspective you're buying points at their fair value and getting lodging for free), if it's more than 1 cpp, definitely redeem, and in between is a judgement call

So working for your example with my level of earn-then-burn and 5NF preference:

Diamond + Aspire, current promo (assuming), $209 cash rate, 50k points
Assumption $21 in taxes

* Base earnings + Diamond bonus + promo bonus + Aspire = 54 pts/$ => 11,286 pts + 294 pts for taxes on Aspire => 11,580 pts
* plus 50k pts => 61,580
* minus 90k pts => 0 pts
* $230/0 => infinite => redeem

But if your plan is to save for 5+ nights in the Maldives, your earn-then-burn preference might be 1%

* 11,580 as before
* plus 62,500 pts => 74,080
* minus 9k pts => 65,080
* $230/65,080 => 0.35 cpp => pay the cash

In theory this approach can choose between cash rates, at least those with similar cancellation policies. The double point rates which are typically 10% more than the Honors discount rate per night often end up being my cash rates of choice, though with the new breakfast/dining credit, I might consider breakfast included or extra credit rates at those properties. In this case, the likely pricing for the double point rate ($230 + $23 tax) wouldn't affect things much.

In theory this sort of thing could be applied to Points + Money bookings to find a sweet spot, but the math would get quite complex, so I generally don't bother.
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Old Oct 22, 2021, 1:17 pm
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Originally Posted by hhdl
The only thing I would add is that carrying a large point balance could definitely be argued to be suboptimal: the points are unlikely to dramatically increase in value. So if a redemption is at all close to reasonable value and is a sufficiently small percentage of your balance, it won't make a huge difference
.
I really disagree but it depends on your situation and preferences. I keep above 1 million points in my account because I don't need to use them, even if they devalue. I am sure.. without evidence, that they are the reason that I consistently receive VIP treatment wherever I go. Upgrades.. suites, benefits. It's a choice I make and enjoy.
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Old Oct 22, 2021, 4:15 pm
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Originally Posted by sbams
I really disagree but it depends on your situation and preferences. I keep above 1 million points in my account because I don't need to use them, even if they devalue. I am sure.. without evidence, that they are the reason that I consistently receive VIP treatment wherever I go. Upgrades.. suites, benefits. It's a choice I make and enjoy.
OnQ does, IIRC, display the current point balance on the profile (not any elite qualification info, though: to the extent hotels prioritize elites by point balance, it's likely that Aspire diamonds get treated better than stay diamonds and possibly even night diamonds). That said, I can't say I ever took the point balance into account when upgrading elites.
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Old Oct 22, 2021, 4:25 pm
  #9  
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Originally Posted by sbams
I really disagree but it depends on your situation and preferences. I keep above 1 million points in my account because I don't need to use them, even if they devalue. I am sure.. without evidence, that they are the reason that I consistently receive VIP treatment wherever I go. Upgrades.. suites, benefits. It's a choice I make and enjoy.
It has been mentioned but I don't think ever proven that some hotels look at your points balance and treat you accordingly. Which I think is totally wrong. Should be status and they should be happy that you use your points. However, as I don't do much traveling anymore I try to build up to about 1 million points to have on hand for those special trips as I don't earn many points a year anymore. Thank you lifetime Diamond.
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Old Oct 24, 2021, 6:41 am
  #10  
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Thanks for all the replies. Didn’t need the room after all that. We “fell” into being Hilton Diamonds this year since we needed a place to stay for 3 months and also got that Hilton card (I don’t recall if it’s Aspire but it’s 450/yr).

We figure that after 3-4 months hotel living plus working through the pandemic, may as well rack up points for a post pandemic splurge at a really nice property ! (That would be another thread!)
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Old Oct 24, 2021, 7:21 am
  #11  
 
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While you didn't end up needing it, I would give one more example.

I don't believe it was the best valuation. However, when redeeming Hilton points, be prepared the accept the lowest room type. Otherwise, even the slightest upgrade can be a ridiculous point requirement. In a Homewood, it is generally a lot more acceptable to take any room IMO. One thing to consider when sitting on a bunch of points.
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Old Oct 24, 2021, 8:03 am
  #12  
 
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Originally Posted by hhdl
That said, I can't say I ever took the point balance into account when upgrading elites.
Agreed. I could care less about that and it has never once entered my mind when assigning rooms and/or if I choose to upgrade someone.

I assume there are properties/people out there that take point balance into account but I've never met or heard of one.

FWIW, million point members are fairly common. I see them regularly. Going over 5 or even 10 million is when you start getting into rarefied territory. Even then, they get what they reserve.
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Old Oct 24, 2021, 11:46 am
  #13  
 
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Originally Posted by Baze
It has been mentioned but I don't think ever proven that some hotels look at your points balance and treat you accordingly.
Not exactly sure how you'd like to receive "proof", but as a LD with a consistently very high points balance (frequent travel by wife and I, mutual fund account, meeting/event points, earn faster than burn), I often receive comments from FD staff about the balance and the additional upgrade/amenity/freebie that they're providing specifically because of the points total. This occurs at brands across the HH spectrum and at properties where I am not a frequent or returning guest.
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Old Oct 24, 2021, 2:19 pm
  #14  
 
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Another thing to consider is if the 209 rate is refundable. I tend to compare semi-flex rates to the point usage decision. Unless I am 100% sure I will not cancel, which has been rare in the last few years.
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