usedtobeimportant

I love Hawaii, perhaps even retire there, but I'm doubtful the economy can survive until next year without tourist.

Interestingly, it seem that under 30% (by most accounts) of Hawaii's economy is tourism based. That seems really far fetched to me based on my dozen or so visits.

https://www.hawaiipublicradio.org/po...en-it#stream/0

josephstern

Here's more info:

https://dbedt.hawaii.gov/economic/qser/outlook-economy/

I think about retiring there also. Think about how many retirees are already there. That alone produces a lot of cash and consumption to keep the economy moving.

For 30% of an economy to be based on tourism is really pretty large, to me. Do you get out into the non-resort areas? There's obviously also a very large military base that must account for a huge chunk of the economy.

DJ_Iceman

Misleading to be sure. "According to LaCroix, the non-tourism economy is essentially everything that Hawaii residents spend money on. 'That economic activity comes via University of Hawaii, it comes from the schools, it comes from people getting medical care, and it comes from people going to restaurants,' he says an example." But if such a large percentage of people make their livelihoods from tourism, then they won't have money to go out to restaurants or get medical care (or buy groceries, or anything else). I think the cascade effect of zeroing out tourism in Hawaii is going to be far more devastating than many people realize.

karenwhitworth

usedtobeimportant,
I saw that number and thought the same as you! I am really intrigued to learn about the other industries that hold a large stake in the economy, as they must be far larger than I realized.

azepine00

current situation seems to indicate rather weak healthcare - a key prerequisite to attract retirees...

Welltended3

absolutely right.
we had planned to move there until we heard about the healthcare infrastructure on the Neighbor Islands. Flying to Oahu for chemo (as our friend did) is not appealing.

ExplorerWannabe

A lot of people are shortsighted, that shouldn't be any surprise. People will retire to Hawaii because they can afford it at the time and they are still active and enjoying good health. A lot of them are not thinking about how retirement might be in their 80s or 90s.

I am not surprised to see that tourism is only 30% of the economy; there's a lot of federal spending which is not dependent on the tourism industry. That doesn't mean people don't hurt when tourism hits a decline but it's not the only source of income for the state. In some respects, I think shutting down restaurants and entertainment -- which go far beyond the tourist industry -- may have had more of a widespread effect. No data, just out-dated instinct (I haven't lived there long-term for over 30 years and have to rely on my annual trips home and accounts from family and friends).

COSPILOT

People that retire here know what they are getting into. I’m possibly the youngest in my neighborhood but the neighbors know what it takes.

The tourism numbers trickle down, I think we are a few months from that being reported as to impact on everything.

ExplorerWannabe

I believe that's true for people who have done well enough in life to retire to a gated community near Kapalua. I don't think people who scrape together enough to retire in Aeia or Makiki do quite as much research or forward planning (in general). Then again, my experience is dated, perhaps people do more research and planning now than they did 20 or 30 years ago. ;-)

COSPILOT

I always joke it isn’t the mortgage that will kill you, it’s HOA dues and politics.😄

Before finding a long term rental (yes I don’t own), I stayed in such a wide variety of places that I spent enough with a huge variety in pricing that I had the pleasure of meeting plenty, from rich to poor. Hard to miss that our healthcare is subpar unless you don’t watch the news, don’t read the paper, and have never looked at the internet.

Quoting Charles Lindbergh; “I would rather live one day in Maui than one month in New York.”

HaleiwaFlyer

https://www.hawaiinewsnow.com/2020/0...ndemic-widens/

Looks like the bankruptcy filings are starting to rise.

Weatherboy

Easy answer: no.

msp3

The answer is no, but not necessarily having anything to do with the mainland. Tourism is great for the economy and when well-managed very sustainable without serious harm to the environment relative to heavy industry, agriculture, fishing, etc.

The real problem is too many people are coming over by low-cost carriers (e.g. WN, SY, D7, etc.) and staying at Airbnbs and bring no value but create costs (crowding, etc). Keep in mind most airbnb scumbags systematically evade taxes, skirt local laws, and are generally disliked by the local community.

COSPILOT

Just watched the live news conference on KHON 2. Nothing really surprising beyond what we already knew. What concerns me is where the money is coming from to cover things. Ige wasn’t very clear, other than to say Hawaii doesn’t have it, and he seems to sort of hope Federal funds will be found.

mtofell

30% tourism is interesting but there is probably a maximum % that it could be on an isolated island like Hawaii that is lower than we think (I mention isolated because on the mainland workers could come from a neighboring state and throw off the numbers). Basically, someone has to work the restaurants and grocery stores to serve the tourists. Construction workers need to build and maintain the buildings, people need to work the supply houses for the construction workers to get the materials, etc, etc. Problem is, take out that 30% of tourism and the rest all comes crashing down.

Will Hawaii survive? Sure, in some fashion but it could get REALLY ugly.