MYR already has ACY-MYR on Spirit and seasonal PHL-MYR on Spirit and US Air and BWI-MYR (not sure if it's seasonal) from Spirit. Also, I think a lot of people drive down there.

I think Frontier's approach early this year when it was launching the Spring and Summer schedule was just trying to maximize existing station utilization by connecting the dots essentially and seeing what sticks (or generates enough of reasonable yield) rather than open up too many new stations. But now it's changed slightly and it has opened up PBI and NAS, and a lot of links are being de-linked, so new cities might be more possible by next Spring.

Maybe Frontier would try CHS next Spring as CHS has no low fare link to the Philly region and Frontier wouldn't be competing for routes against Spirit directly and most airports already have either on. It'd give Frontier a presence in South Carolina also, and it could link maybe other markets (like CLE seasonally) to it.

ILG Service Gutted?
 

TTN has its flaws too, dont get me wrong I think its easier than PHL and EWR most of the time but it falls short during delays because it doesnt have much slack when it comes to space. Hopefully the new terminal renovations will help that. No announced date for that hopefully soon.

This is probably why ILG service always fails. It's only about 45 minutes to PHL, and it's only the most convenient airport for maybe 10% of the local area population (a few hundred thousand people). From PHL, you get 3x, 5x, or 7x DAILY service to these destinations. It's absurd to compete against that two or three times a week -- even for the people who live in Wilmington! You can only fill your planes if you charge next to nothing. Meanwhile, you have the same costs as the big boys, except for a modest break in labor expenditure. This is the reality; the only option is to pull out or find a market where you have demand to fly with enough frequency to boost yields. MCO's probably about it, and even that may be seasonal.

Failure is probably inevitable, which is undoubtedly what Frontier is realizing now. There's a reason there's no air service at ILG. It's not because everyone else is dumb.

It's actually just 30 minutes from PHL, but I'd say it's ultra convenient for New Castle County (549,000) and Kent and Cecil County, MD. Then, it's not bad for anyone within 50mins-1 hour of it. The problem is low level of service and likely lack of awareness. Are residents from Exton/West Chester area aware of Florida flying from ILG?

You're right that MCO is likely the only route where it can perform modestly to keep the station.

I think Frontier has found better opportunities, one where it doesn't have to advertise the airport, and more primary airports with some level of limited service, CLE and IAD. It's also taking on AirTran's role in competing now against Southwest on Florida flying. It can continue this within the East, likely outside of New York state and New England where JetBlue performs that role.

MCO sidebar:
It does seem to like MCO flying probably even moreso than Spirit. Spirit launched MCI without MCO service. I'd think Frontier would consider IND-MCO, CVG-MCO and RDU-MCO and I think PIT-MCO it'd do well. Considering that it still is dedicated on MDT-MCO, I'd hope it'd consider ABE-MCO again. I don't think it'd be ballsy enough to compete against US on CLT-MCO however as Southwest and JetBlue have tried some Florida out of CLT and not succeeded, although if I recall correctly, AirTran did manage on CLT-MCO.

Ouch. As a NCCo resident that stings a bit. But for the most part I agree with everything you wrote (except the 45 mins to PHL... I can get to PHL in 50 mins from Middletown, no way it takes 45 from ILG unless you're driving 55 in the right lane). The only destinations that can work with one flight a day, a few days a week is MCO and the usual Florida destinations. LAS could work too I think if they wanted to devote a flight there.

Here's the article in today's paper:

http://www.delawareonline.com/story/...stle/14574479/

More cheery local press from ILG:

http://www.delawareonline.com/story/...ions/15144931/

I don't see longevity of ILG-MCO if local ILG pax become reluctant to book with the carrier for advance bookings after these fiascos. Would short window bookings and sales be profitable? Seems risky on Frontier's part. I think the whole move was a gradual shut off of ILG rather than a hard pull to end the station.

Also, I can think of atleast two dozen better routes for Frontier especially as it gravitates towards major airports but underserved routes by other carriers or high volume routes between major airports where ULCC fares can work. Even if it's just North-South with use of Florida for Q1, it'd could probably launch other airports to MCO, and routes like MDT-MCO that compete for plane usage, likely prove to be more worthwhile for Frontier to be serving.

I also wonder if UST, like ILG as far as tertiary airports, might be endangered.

I think anybody flying TTN-UST or IAD-UST would be content on TTN-JAX or IAD-JAX on Frontier, and one can fly another carrier on the return (atleast with IAD and other WAS airports) more easily if a car rental is done from JAX. e.g. fly IAD-JAX on Frontier, and return on another carrier if the JAX-IAD flight from Frontier isn't suitable. Not sure how easily it works to rent at UST and return at JAX or MCO. T

It just launched from IAD, but Frontier is selling $80 r/t on IAD-UST all of September and October. It's almost like: Anyone? Anyone? as the route might be poorly marketed and/or it's a result of lesser used airports.

I've always thought TTN had a slight advantage over ILG, not only with the population density, BWI being farther away, and lack of low fares and ease of use from EWR, but with the NJ Transit line that a pax could fly easily via TTN and return via EWR (if the TTN return flight didn't work out), but the same isn't as easy with PHL and ILG with atleast two trains being needed. Only one train for ILG and BWI, but it's an Amtrak one, but BWI/Baltimore catchment probably doesn't use ILG or even marketed to use, like North and Central NJ that easily use both EWR and TTN. I remember the ease of flying TTN-MDW and return MDW-EWR on Southwest for example.

Frontier has never shied away from a hard pull before - as with COS.

I don't think anyone could have predicted the extraordinary changes to the route map with Indigo - I surely didn't - or the changes yet to come. Not even Frontier was ready for CLE - it fell into their laps when United pulled the plug and they had to scramble to find aircraft. Now it is what the CEO - who can be the Prince of Doom - recently called "a terrific market for us."

I can't guess what will happen for ILG, and it will, to some extent, depend on MCO. If the locals decide they've been hard done by and don't use the airline then they will lose the service and ILG will go back to what it was before.

But I can't see why ILG can't be at least like MDT, which has two routes, MCO and DEN, both seasonal and both less than daily service, and which has grown, if only slowly, from the git-go.

Fares to Florida are always depressed in the fall, so the low fares to UST at this time of year should not be a cause for alarm.

As for TTN, you overestimate the impact of public transit. It plays virtually no role at TTN; there is no train or bus that goes to the terminal. It is superior to ILG simply because (a) it has a more populated and more affluent catchment area, (b) is farther away from PHL than ILG is, and (c) the shortest route to PHL from Mercer and Bucks counties, unlike from New Castle County, DE, would take you through the city (I-95), hence the big traffic delays that you normally get for the 8-mile stretch between I-676 and Cottman Avenue.

Perhaps you're right about the public transportation, but I can tell you I've personally flown out of TTN over ILG because of the public transportation issue. I live in Center City and don't own a car, so TTN is easier to get to.

Just curious, how is TTN more convenient from Center City? Is it because there are more frequent trains on the West Trenton line than the Wilmington/Newark line? Both involve a taxi from the train station, don't they?

You can take the West Trenton line to the West Trenton station, then it is only a 1.5 mile walk (or short taxi ride) to TTN. Wilmington to ILG is over 5 miles, so you must take a cab.

Trains to West Trenton are every hour or less, 7 days per week. Trains to Wilmington are every two hours on the weekends and midday/late night weekdays, with slightly better service during rush hour.

If you are trying to catch a plane at an odd time, the Trenton line is a good backup to the West Trenton line for TTN (and a similar distance as Wilmington to ILG). The first Trenton train arrives at 5:09a weekdays (vs. 5:39a in Wilmington) and 6:35a on weekends (vs. 8:21a in Wilmington) The last Trenton line departure is after midnight, 7 days per week (vs. 10:45p weekdays, 8:40pm weekends in Wilmington).

With that said, I wish the TTN airport would run a freakin' shuttle to the West Trenton station!

^All of this

I emailed Frontier several months ago asking about the possibility of partnering to operate a shuttle from the West Trenton train station to the airport and they said they weren't interested and I should contact the airport authority.

First flights were much cheaper than that - LOL - they had a first flight $15 (one way) sale. By the time you add in the ancillaries, bags, etc, it's rather more than that.

In this article about the first flight from IAD, the UST the airport official claims that load factors on TTN-UST have been 94% since Day 1:

http://www.firstcoastnews.com/story/...n-dc/15306877/

" In May, Frontier started service from St. Augustine to Trenton, New Jersey. Frontier's planes have been packed since then.

Airport Executive Director Ed Wuellner said, "They were averaging from day one: 94% full flights… in and out."

That tells us nothing about yield, of course, and I suspect that IAD-UST might be over-scheduled at 5 x weekly, and with the A320, but the article also says that the first flight in from IAD was "near-capacity" - the fifteen buck fares doing their job, perhaps.

So I'll wait and watch on this one.

Makes sense, thanks.

ILG does have the DART route (the 22 I think) but it doesn't run all that often. I was impressed yesterday though - all ILG operations were 2.5 hours late since the aircraft never made it back to ILG from RSW the night before. DART must monitor operations because even with the delays the bus met the arrival (I was coming in from MDW). I had my car but noticed the arrival of the bus.