The game board spiinner must have stopped on the "Free New Market" space.

MKE-PIT returns 5/17, twice daily with ERJ.

I suspect that since the Chautauqua crew base in MKE is closing, this helps them feed crews in to the F9* system as the plane overnights in PIT. However it's three lousy planes, and they are overnighting one of them in Columbus -- a crew and MX base for Chautauqua.

Because Frontier doesn't fly to PIT this means opening a new station for however many months the RJ flying lasts.

I wish there there appeared to be more of a route planning strategy at F9. It was only a few months ago that MKE-PIT was announced as being discontinued.

Now, it's back. I'm pleased to see that it's returning, but it will probably be leaving again within the next year. The on-again off-again route planning in MKE can't help deliver much business travel booking.

I think this is key. If Republic's fleet plans are to be believed, the regional jets will be gone by the end of this year. That means PIT will be short lived.

It's a bit ridiculous to pull a route (and close an entire station) simply to re-open it a few months later. It seems strange that they couldn't do this from CMH though.

The new CEO needs to clean house and install some competent people in the marketing, route planning and revenue management departments.

The new flights are added by using slack in the three lines of ERJ flying they are maintaining.

That they are bothering to add Pittsburgh back suggests to me that these RJ routes have some worth. Among other frustrating things in the Frontier soap opera debate in the past year or more has been fighting the notion of things being either all-good or all-bad.

When it comes to the RJ's, they are of course and obviously tagged as bad. However there's a huge difference between:

(a) Using an RJ in a market like MSP-MKE, where 80% of of the traffic is junky connections and the other 20% is local traffic with very depressed yields.

(b) Using an RJ in a market like MKE-EWR, which burns almost 1/2 of an aircraft day to do a single round trip.

(c) Using an RJ in a market like BNA-MKE, where local traffic is the bulk, and fares are comparably high.

Especially with fuel as high as it is, flying a market like (a) is certain to lose buckets of money. A market like (b) only works if you can get a high yield and not simply strive to cram bodies into seats no matter the fare. A market like (c) is a good candidate to actually turn a profit.

Chautauqua is obligated to serve Rhinelander until Great Lakes picks up that service, and they will be paid a subsidy for their "hold in" flying. They could minmally run a single line of flying based in Columbus (which is a Chautauqua crew and maint base) to meet this obligation, flying CMH-MKE-RHI-MKE-RHI-MKE-CMH. That would be one plane and six segments. Instead they'd chosen to keep three planes in the air with 24 daily segments. They're not afraid to park planes. The only reason I see for them flying more than the obligatory segments is that even with nearly nothing to feed in MKE, they believe it's worth the cost.


And that adds a tiny glimmer of hope for MKe that some of the RJ markets likely being dumped will appeal to somebody. If not Frontier, then somebody.


Who knows how long it will last, of course. But if they are not going to break their obligation with the DoT at Rhinelander (which occasionally airlines have done, but not usually) they're stuck until Great Lakes starts up the RHI-MSP route they have been awarded. Great Lakes is taking over several subsidized EAS stations that Delta is trying to get out from under such as Iron Mountain, Brainard and Fort Dodge. They have a long track record of biting off more than they can chew, and picking up all these cities around MSP is a tall order for them. Among other things, there's a question on where they are going to get enough aircraft to cover all the flying they have been awarded. Delta is eager to get CRJ's out of these small markets and is working to coordinate with Great Lakes. But that suggests to me that they will strive first to take over all the ex-Delta markets with their limited resources ahead of putting any effort into making good on their bid to serve Rhinelander. They will probably use their limited resources to please their partner Delta first. That could leave Chautauqua stuck in Rhinelander for awhile.

There's only one possible caveat I come up with. The RJ flying was moved from the fixed-fee books to the Frontier books several quarters ago. Might Chautauqua continue to operate a few RJ's as F9* but not under the Frontier books?

Doing so allows Frontier's numbers to be "clean". Stats like average capacity, CASM, etc won't have any dilution from sub-99 seat aircrft. It's a cleaner entity in the mind of observers and investors, too, especially since there's general concern in the industry about economics of smaller aircraft at high fuel prices. It's hard to portray Frontier as an ultra-low-cost carrier when there are any high-CASM aircraft in the fleet.

Keeping a few aircraft in F9 service but transfering them out of Frontier's financials would also allow Republic to continue to have cash-positive use of a few surplus aircraft. The window to make a buck with RJ's gets smaller and smaller every penny fuel goes up, and if they can get that by flying a few in Milwaukee, I don't see a resounding reason why they would not.

So RJET doing some at risk flying out of MKE for F9 but not on F9's books. I kind of like that idea, but I bet it depends on a strong summer. The new PIT route is pricing out around $225 o/w and if they can get those fares, it might help that cause. RJET has a place to fly planes and F9 gets to report a low CASM. Shouldn't get the hopes up but its better than nothing...

If your statement above is true, it begs the question why Frontier dropped MKE-PIT in the first place. This past fall Frontier had a monopoly on the route with loads north of 90% but apparently couldn't justify keeping it (and PIT was one of the earlier regional jet routes cut). But suddenly the route has some appeal and profit potential? Let's just say I'm skeptical.

With the loss of feed and the increasing price of oil, I honestly don't see how three lines of regional jet flying survive long-term (especially if Frontier is sold or spun-off).

Certainly you are right to be skeptical, but Knope's point is they really only need one line of flying to keep the government happy. They would have cut the other 2 lines if they didn't think they could make money on them. PIT is certainly an interesting choice but it looks like it is a plane positioning route. Fares in some markets have also gone up considerably since last year and they might feel those routes can do better. But I do think they will need to be profitable now if they have any chance of staying past this summer.

Sounds like an accounting tactic implemented to show Frontier revenue while RJET absorbs expense in an attept to attract a buyer.

Just like at the beginning where F9 was vastly "overpaying" RJET to make the fixed fee look good at the expense of F9. Accountants can do anything!

I understand what you're saying. My point still remains, though. If PIT was seen as having potential, there was no need to cut it in the first place. Frontier could have easily accomodated the flights (they certainly have the lift available).

Now Frontier will go to the trouble and expense of re-opening the station that was closed only a month ago.

If it's simply a repositioning of aircraft and crew, it seems that Republic could have accomplished this via CMH.

I think MKE-PIT can be a good route (it certainly was just a few years ago). However, I don't think the regional jets will be in MKE much longer so it seems strange to re-start this route when similar ones have been killed off. But I've been wrong before

Well stated, Blue. Let's hope F9 (or any carrier for that matter) can find a way to make MKE-PIT work over the long-term.

You are right that it is strange. I know F9 is taking over some Apple flying in PIT, and while that doesn't involve the ER4s, it might offset the expense of having a station open for 2 daily flights if there is in fact more. Like Knope said PIT is a crew base for CHQ so that probably helps the cause too. We'll see how it goes...

[I wrote this onboard an E190 earlier this afternoon when the wifi timed out of the 30-minute free period without warning. Happily I saved it in Word just in case.]


That is the million-dollar question. The only idea I have is that they changed how they look at things yet again. That certainly does not mean the RJ's are suddenly in great shape. But there seem to be frequent shifts in how things are perceived. They were painting RJs in Frontier colors and applying for EAS markets (Fort Dodge, most recently) only a few months before they decided the whole RJ business was unsustainable. They installed new (Puritan-desiged) seats to get Stretch into the E170's shortly before reversing course and removing them. I don't point out all these changes now to dredge up debate on the decisions they made, but just to demonstrate that the rudder has turned frequently. Perhaps every one of those turns was well-reasoned and justified as things looked at that moment, but regardless of that, frequent changes of perspective have marked the Republic/Midwest/Frontier tale. This may be another.

So how could they have "changed how they look at things yet again?" By divorcing the RJ flying from Frontier to make Frontier more appealing as a ULCC (ultra low cost carrier) airline, but then examining it from the Chautauqua side and determing that three lines of at-risk flying at MKE had a viable shot. It's very clear that Frontier is actively and vocally being promoted as moving toward the ULCC model, and that explains (at least in my mind) why all smaller aircraft must get out from the Frontier wheelhouse, and that the E190 may be facing a diminished role. Perhaps they have decided it's okay to continue to suffer the cost drag of three remaining ERJ's dirtying up the Frontier CASM for a few more quarters, and then it's lights out for the RJ lights. It's what a lot of us assumed. But perhaps it only means getting them off of Frontier's books and onto Chautauqua's.

That's certainly only a guess on my part, but I don't have any other ideas to explain why PIT is coming back.

The cost to open a station -- especially if it's only for a few months -- is not insignificant. If they had restored flying into a city which already had Frontier service (like Dayton) I could have more readily dismissed this as trying to get some marginal revenue from using all three lines of RJ flying more extensively. But to reopen a station for what might be just a few months of RJ flying is puzzling.

BTW Chautauqua also has IND operations and crew, too. Before they opened up Republic and Chautauqua bases in Milwaukee, all the crews rotated up from elsewhere (including IND, CHM, PIT and DCA) to cover a lot more flying out of MKE. Flying to both CMH and IND should be plenty to get crews and maintenence work done even without PIT. It's only three lines of flying.

For possible amusement, here's the last 6 months or so of Pittsburgh:

Up to September
--MKE-PIT 12x/week with high loads but low local fares due to Skywest.
--Plans announced for increased flights in Fall with FL* ending.

September
--MKE-PIT increased 16x/week with 90% loads and no low fare competition (Skywest left) but anecdotally-low fares.
--Plans announced for MKE-PIT to be cut to only 10x/week.

October
--MKE-PIT reduced to 10x/week and operated with high loads.
--Plans announced for MKE-PIT to be increased to 12x/week at the same time many other RJ markets were cut.

November
--MKE-PIT increased again to 12/week in spite of other RJ markets being cut.
--Plans announced for MKE-PIT to end in January.

January
-MKE-PIT dropped.

February
--MKE-PIT announced for relaunch in May.

It would be fitting that we hear about it being discontinued as of 8/26 shortly before it starts in May.


Why Flint was kept with a certain-to-fail schedule...when Pittsburgh was given the ax...is not something I get. But some things are not to be understood, I guess.

Speaking of being set up to fail, I wouldn't take bets on MCI-AUS and MCI-MSY lasting once the feed from MKE disappears. Hopefully I'm wrong, but the pattern is hardly without precedence. They will be pulled because they don't generate positive revenue, which will be true. But this will happen only after Frontier loses money in the markets for a few months in a very predictable fashion because they are not cutting it on local traffic alone.

On the bright side, the E190 I'm currently on had an oven -- I have not had a warm cookie in ages. :-)

Do we know if the Apple flying at PIT is an inked deal? And is there summer flying, or is it the typical winter stuff?

If PIT is certain to get Frontier flights for Apple, and that contract flying runs this summer, that could make some sense.

However if it this just likely, and it's for the winter season, then it doesn't seem to be a good reason in support of ERJ's coming back to PIT in May.