DEN Competitive Schedule vs. FL/WN
Nov 13, 2011 | 1:28 pm
#1
Original Poster
Join Date: May 2011
Location: AUS
Programs: DL GM, F9 50K, NK Gold...AS MVP 50K soon?
Posts: 213
DEN Competitive Schedule vs. FL/WN
So, Southwest/Airtran opened their schedule today until 8/10/12. The really interesting part, IMO, is the proliferation of AirTran metal on routes from Southwest focus cities (FLL, SAT, SNA, DEN). Let's focus on DEN for a minute.
DEN-CAK departs at 2:25p (545) except on Saturdays, when it's 1:20p (883). The aircraft is a 717. AirTran's takeoff time is pretty much right in between the two Frontier flights, which are on 319s and are currently $20 more expensive than the AirTran flight.
CAK-DEN departs at 12:29p (456) except on Saturdays, when it's 11:29a (1443). Again, AirTran's flight is scheduled to bisect Frontier's schedule more or less, and again the flight is priced $20 lower than on Frontier.
What's interesting is that United doesn't serve this route at all. Even on a connecting flight, they price themselves out of the market...$270 on a Tuesday is is the cheapest UA flight I could find (DEN-ORD-CAK with the last hop on an ERJ). Wonder how many people F9 and now FL are poaching from DEN-CLE, since CAK is less than an hour from CLE, driving time. I'm wondering how much WN's new flight will grow the market though, versus just pushing F9 out.
Speaking of CLE, prices on DEN-CLE are ridiculous, probably because the route is UA-only. Another interesting point: there's ~385 seats on the route (2x738, 1xCR7). When FL starts service to CAK, there will be ~390 seats on that route, spread over three flights with similar flight times to UA to CLE. Interesting, no?
To break things up, I'll put each route in a different post. Yay over-analysis!
DEN-CAK departs at 2:25p (545) except on Saturdays, when it's 1:20p (883). The aircraft is a 717. AirTran's takeoff time is pretty much right in between the two Frontier flights, which are on 319s and are currently $20 more expensive than the AirTran flight.
CAK-DEN departs at 12:29p (456) except on Saturdays, when it's 11:29a (1443). Again, AirTran's flight is scheduled to bisect Frontier's schedule more or less, and again the flight is priced $20 lower than on Frontier.
What's interesting is that United doesn't serve this route at all. Even on a connecting flight, they price themselves out of the market...$270 on a Tuesday is is the cheapest UA flight I could find (DEN-ORD-CAK with the last hop on an ERJ). Wonder how many people F9 and now FL are poaching from DEN-CLE, since CAK is less than an hour from CLE, driving time. I'm wondering how much WN's new flight will grow the market though, versus just pushing F9 out.
Speaking of CLE, prices on DEN-CLE are ridiculous, probably because the route is UA-only. Another interesting point: there's ~385 seats on the route (2x738, 1xCR7). When FL starts service to CAK, there will be ~390 seats on that route, spread over three flights with similar flight times to UA to CLE. Interesting, no?
To break things up, I'll put each route in a different post. Yay over-analysis!
Nov 13, 2011 | 2:23 pm
#2
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Join Date: May 2011
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DEN-DAY
Southwest will serve the route with a 717. 11:10a (239) going to DEN, 12:45p (1176) coming back. On Saturday flight 695 departs DAY at 9:00a and flight 1892 departs DEN at 12:20p. The Sun-Fri flights could very well be a quick turn of the same aircraft in DEN.
Pricing is similar to Frontier, who operates two 319s on the route (one at ~10:50a, one at 7:15p) and United, who uses a CR7 (and takes off from DEN at the same time as F9's morning flight). FL's addition of this route brings the number of airlines on the route to three, with four daily flights (three if you discount the fact that UA* and F9 take off at the same time) and ~470 seats. The question here is how much WN is trying to poach UA and F9 (mostly F9), versus how much they're actually trying to stimulate demand, since their flight is only two hours after the UA/F9 morning flights.
Compare this route to DEN-CVG, which has a UA* CR7 and a DL 738. Dayton actually has significantly more capacity right now than CVG (1.5h away), and the difference will just continue to grow.
Pricing is similar to Frontier, who operates two 319s on the route (one at ~10:50a, one at 7:15p) and United, who uses a CR7 (and takes off from DEN at the same time as F9's morning flight). FL's addition of this route brings the number of airlines on the route to three, with four daily flights (three if you discount the fact that UA* and F9 take off at the same time) and ~470 seats. The question here is how much WN is trying to poach UA and F9 (mostly F9), versus how much they're actually trying to stimulate demand, since their flight is only two hours after the UA/F9 morning flights.
Compare this route to DEN-CVG, which has a UA* CR7 and a DL 738. Dayton actually has significantly more capacity right now than CVG (1.5h away), and the difference will just continue to grow.
Nov 13, 2011 | 2:43 pm
#3
Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: DEN
Posts: 350
This is all pretty puzzling to me. My understanding was that we wouldn't see any new Airtran service. Although the international routes may make sense until the operating certificates are merged, the domestic flights are strange.
The only way to make sense is from a 717 utilization standpoint, along with an interline or codeshare agreement long before these routes take off. Right now, you couldn't even get FF benefits between the two.
strange stuff, but F9 had better be afraid either way.
The only way to make sense is from a 717 utilization standpoint, along with an interline or codeshare agreement long before these routes take off. Right now, you couldn't even get FF benefits between the two.
strange stuff, but F9 had better be afraid either way.
Nov 13, 2011 | 2:54 pm
#4
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Join Date: May 2011
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DEN-LGA
The LGA route is the most aggressive; 670 leaves DEN at 11:10a, while 1336 leaves at 4:25p. The reverse flights are at 8:10a (1675) and 1247 (1:25p). On Saturdays only one nonstop exists: 531 leaving DEN at 5:35p and 849 leaving LGA at 2:35p. It looks like all flights could be made by an aircraft doing LGA-DEN-LGA, though the weekday flights would require two aircraft.
This route otherwise has seven daily flights on it (except Sat), three from Frontier (2x320, 1x319) and five from United (2x320, 2x319, 1x752). On Saturday, the schedule thins by a flight or two, not including FL's drop from two to one. Pricing on this route is quite competitive: ~$130 OW is the floor I've seen.
By way of comparison, JFK has two flights per day (one Delta 738, one JetBlue 320) and EWR has nine (3x WN, 6x UA/CO, specifically 3x738, 1x320, 1x753, 1x739). So, between JFK, EWR and LGA, WN/FL will have five flights to UA/CO's 11, though on average WN's planes carry less passengers.
Is WN trying to push out Frontier on this route as well? Maybe, though the impact of adding ~275 seats on Sun-Fri to LGA isn't nearly as significant as adding 40% of that in a much smaller market like CAK.
This route otherwise has seven daily flights on it (except Sat), three from Frontier (2x320, 1x319) and five from United (2x320, 2x319, 1x752). On Saturday, the schedule thins by a flight or two, not including FL's drop from two to one. Pricing on this route is quite competitive: ~$130 OW is the floor I've seen.
By way of comparison, JFK has two flights per day (one Delta 738, one JetBlue 320) and EWR has nine (3x WN, 6x UA/CO, specifically 3x738, 1x320, 1x753, 1x739). So, between JFK, EWR and LGA, WN/FL will have five flights to UA/CO's 11, though on average WN's planes carry less passengers.
Is WN trying to push out Frontier on this route as well? Maybe, though the impact of adding ~275 seats on Sun-Fri to LGA isn't nearly as significant as adding 40% of that in a much smaller market like CAK.