F9 schedule changes
May 15, 2011 | 8:54 pm
#3
Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 2,653
The dailiy morning MKE-MCO-MKE flight does not operate from 9/12 through 11/16, replaced by a morning flight on Sunday and an afternoon flight 3-4 other days of the week. Seems quite likely this is another move due to the fleet shortage resulting from the accelerated E170 removal and (average) two-month delays on new E190 deliveries.
Not sure how much more cutting they need to do to make things work out.
--The first batch of E170 for Delta is eight aircraft, and according to the conference call those planes will be with Delta by the end of June. The impact of those eight planes is undoubtedly already absorbed into the published schedule.
--The rest of Delta's order.... six more E170... are due to leave during July / August / September. Some of that lost lift is probably already factored into the schedules currently loaded, but perhaps not all. Hard to tell.
--They have three more E170 not obligated to Delta which they believe they will also be able to place. On the last conference call, Daniel Shurz said they would be leaving the fleet "in" the fourth quarter while Bedford say "by" the fourth quarter. Frankly, because Shurz is they guy who lives and dies the schedule, he's probably more accurate. But if Bedford's exact mean indicated they are gone by 10/1, Shurz's (perhaps) more accurate statement that they would leave during Q4 could mean anytime between 10/1 and 12/31. This may be why MKE-DFW continues to show E170 past 10/1.
--Finally four A318 (actually I think it's only three lines of flying) which were to be gone by now stayed in the fleet this summer to keep the schedule up. Those will be leaving this fall.
So while we know the impact of many of those aircraft leaving has already been factored into the schedule, it's not clear how much more there still is to go. Nor is is clear the expected timing of remaining A320 and E190 deliveries which will offset some of this. I suspect the restoration of the every-morning MKE-MCO-MKE trip on 11/17 will come from an aircraft delivery or a cut elsewhere.
OMA-MCO-OMA weekday flights are also being reduced to Saturday-only this fall -- another means to trim the schedule and offset aircraft being lost. I would guess they'll do what they can to restore that for early 2012 if possible.
Hopefully oil doesn't lead them to actually park aircraft and make cuts beyond what the fleet demands. But even if fuel drops and competition scales back, they can't add / restore flying until deliveries come.
Not sure how much more cutting they need to do to make things work out.
--The first batch of E170 for Delta is eight aircraft, and according to the conference call those planes will be with Delta by the end of June. The impact of those eight planes is undoubtedly already absorbed into the published schedule.
--The rest of Delta's order.... six more E170... are due to leave during July / August / September. Some of that lost lift is probably already factored into the schedules currently loaded, but perhaps not all. Hard to tell.
--They have three more E170 not obligated to Delta which they believe they will also be able to place. On the last conference call, Daniel Shurz said they would be leaving the fleet "in" the fourth quarter while Bedford say "by" the fourth quarter. Frankly, because Shurz is they guy who lives and dies the schedule, he's probably more accurate. But if Bedford's exact mean indicated they are gone by 10/1, Shurz's (perhaps) more accurate statement that they would leave during Q4 could mean anytime between 10/1 and 12/31. This may be why MKE-DFW continues to show E170 past 10/1.
--Finally four A318 (actually I think it's only three lines of flying) which were to be gone by now stayed in the fleet this summer to keep the schedule up. Those will be leaving this fall.
So while we know the impact of many of those aircraft leaving has already been factored into the schedule, it's not clear how much more there still is to go. Nor is is clear the expected timing of remaining A320 and E190 deliveries which will offset some of this. I suspect the restoration of the every-morning MKE-MCO-MKE trip on 11/17 will come from an aircraft delivery or a cut elsewhere.
OMA-MCO-OMA weekday flights are also being reduced to Saturday-only this fall -- another means to trim the schedule and offset aircraft being lost. I would guess they'll do what they can to restore that for early 2012 if possible.
Hopefully oil doesn't lead them to actually park aircraft and make cuts beyond what the fleet demands. But even if fuel drops and competition scales back, they can't add / restore flying until deliveries come.