Waitlist Lottery
 

Currently on waitlist for TPE-LAX on 29/1 and there are 5 seats for sale in J. Is there a rhyme or reason to when or if the upgrade will clear or could it come down to me begging at the gate?

By definition, waitlist is a list and it is not a lottery.

The title was tongue in cheek. Thanks for the 0 value reply.

I am sorry you failed to understand the concept of a list. By definition, it is not random and you begging at the gate won't help. There is an order and the list is cleared based on that order - usually it is a function of status, time and fare paid. As to when how many seats are released into what fare bucket, it is based on their expectation of the sales.

again, no value in your reply

I am sorry I try to help and get this kind of response. Good luck.

Help would be "EVA clears the waitlist every day up to day of flight and even sometimes happens at the gate. There's no pattern that we can find, but dont lose hope."
Not helpful is defining a word in the subject.

If you are truly looking for your chance if your upgrade can be cleared or not, then you are better suit in Y instead.

CNY is on 01/22 this year. LAX is one of the most populated metro in terms of Asian population. With the increased demand in leisure (but not business) travel, I will not be surprised if that 5 J seats are sold before that.

1/29 is still pretty early. they likely will call you a couple days before departure if there are seats available.
Usually there isnt seats available at the airport, but if you really want to take a chance, show up at start at check in and ask again.

based on past loads though, J class is always full.

Do you have any status with BR? Since I became a Diamond member (about 5 years ago) I have never missed a requested upgrade. Sometimes they make you sweat it out until the day before the flight, but it eventually works out. This is in comparison to my time as a Gold member, where I only cleared about 75% of requested upgrades.

If that was meant as an insult, it was a pretty poor one as I don’t even fully grasp what you’re saying.

Thanks, that is helpful.

Helpful as well. No status. Ironically, I am Qantas Platinum and Krisflyer Gold but BR wouldn’t match, even to silver, and even though I have requisite mileage when you look at past years travel on those combined with what I’ve already done with them.

An interesting data point: we know that EVA ML award inventory is separate than EVA ML upgrade inventory, but what is interesting is that there is an award seat on this flight in J, but the upgrade still hasn’t cleared. An outright redemption is only 15k more than the upgrade cost, so it’s quite surprising to me they would want to try to sell this before clearing their own members.

Even though I (apparently) belong in Y, I’ll keep hoping for the best!

Roughly, they keep most revenue J seats until the day before departure. But if it's full and you have no status with Eva and the cabin is full weeks in advance, you have very very very thin chances, they give priority to their FFers.

Upgrade cleared today, 4 days ahead of flight. Coworker on TPE-SFO cleared at same time.
Some data points for future knowledge.
1. EF loading after U/G cleared:

https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/www.fly...da2de9f632.jpg

2. What app showed before u/g was processed:
https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/www.fly...7a24cd749e.jpg

Hope this helps someone else in the future! My return isn't looking so good with J0. Oh well!
https://imgur.com/765wrWw
https://imgur.com/765wrWw

This is excellent detail, thank you.

I know this is an old thread but I do have a more recent datapoint.

Was booked in to fly in PE SFO-TPE on BR7 in mid November 2025, booking class was PE Up (K). Tickets were booked by my employer around the end of October at which time I applied for waitlist (was BR Silver at that time). Was not expecting much but around 5 days after waitlisting I received a call asking if I still wanted the upgrade (which I did) at which point they processed it and deducted the points (there was a 30% discount promo on upgrades at the time). Flight was full in J on the day.