Hi all,Hi all,
I am in a quandry concerning how best to go about upgrading an upcoming flight for the wife and myself.


Booked on EK48 departing FRA on 01 Nov 2019 with economy saver tickets.
Flightload according to ExpertFlyer is J7, C7 - seat map on the EF site shows even more free seats.


I have sufficient miles to upgrade but can only do so earliest at T-48.
I just received an 24 hour email upgrade offer at 452 EUR pp (excluding lounge access).


Should I stay go directly for the email offer or - considering the low loads shown on EF - wait for possible mile-upgrade when checkin opens? I am assuming that lounge access is permitted with the mile-upgrade so there would be more value with this option. However, I really want to bag the business seats on this night flight.


Thanks,
Roger

One of these really difficult 'what should I do' questions. But since you ask, I'll bite...

Yes, you get lounge access with a miles upgrade so you are correct in saying that it has more 'value' than the upgrade offer.

It is difficult to give 'advice' on a question like this as I can't decide what 904 Euros is worth to you and how badly you want the upgrade. The flight is wide open in J (all the way to H7). It is Y8 to W8 in Y, so it could be relatively full in the back.
If it was me, I would take the chance for a miles upgrade at check in. If you bought Saver tickets, I assume 904 Euros is not insignificant to you (although it seems a good offer).
But please don't come back and bite my head off if you end up in Y......

Thanks for your reply!
Yes I do really want the upgrade and would pay without hesitation (but don‘t want to waste cash either...especially as I have 100K miles that need spending). My gut tells me to wait it out too.

My biggest learning with this booking is that economy-flex is the best option regarding unplanned upgrades.

What do you mean with „flight is wide open...all the way to H7“?
Does H bucket have a special inference for the class load?

And by way, no biting...promised!

Not really a 'special meaning', but H is the cheapest business class fare (Business Special). The inference is that if they are prepared to sell 7 (or more) seats at that fare, they expect it to be quite empty. No real 'science', more 'gut feel'.

I would wait it out. It looks quite dead empty up there, and you will kick yourself forever if you spend the 1K euros now and find out later that you could have gotten it for soon-expiring miles at the ticket counter if you'd just waited.

Wait it out till T-48

The cash offer is first come first served for the seats made available so may still be around at T-48 hours if a mileage upgrade doesn't turn up then. I would wait.

Correct, it comes out of P bucket inventory (which does not appear to be visible in EF anymore). The number of seats made available in that bucket is limited, so if others take the offer you might be out of luck.
As I mentioned in an earlier response, I personally would take the gamble as well. (My brother in law did so last night from FCO and was rewarded with seat 23K, in my view the best J seat (but I know that’s an off-topic remark )

Hi all,

Just to let you know that I did take the cash upgrade offer.

Left my gut aside and tried the analytical route

Had I booked Flex/FlexPlus the upgrade would have been 78K/60K miles for 2 pax.
But from Saver I need to spend 115K miles.
I will rather attempt to use those miles on our planned flights in 2020 (theoretically then with almost enough miles to upgrade the full return trip).

Once again � my learning is that if upgrades are a thing - then at least book eco-flex to have a decent starting point.

Thanks to all!
Roger

Absolutely! And that is a general learning point too: look at the cost difference between Saver and Flex (especially in Y). In some markets it can be quite substantial, in others it is relatively small. Flex has many advantages over Saver, not only the amount of miles required for upgrades, but also miles earned (Skywards as well as tier miles), lower change fees and a higher operational upgrade priority. Now depending on your travel pattern this may not make a lot of difference, but for many of us here on FT (after all this is a frequent flyer forum), it does. So the lesson is: look at the price difference but also at the value difference and make your choice accordingly!