Likelihood of upgrade from O class to First?
Mar 29, 2018, 10:34 am
#1
Original Poster
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 25
Likelihood of upgrade from O class to First?
I’ve booked an O class round trip for 2 for September, which says it allows upgrading to First at check in.
What is the likelihood that there will be upgrade availability then? Is it purely whether there are suites available, or does some other factor apply?
Also, if I’m planning on using AmEx points for this, will I be able to transfer the points quick enough to use at checkin once I’ve confirmed availability?
Thanks.
What is the likelihood that there will be upgrade availability then? Is it purely whether there are suites available, or does some other factor apply?
Also, if I’m planning on using AmEx points for this, will I be able to transfer the points quick enough to use at checkin once I’ve confirmed availability?
Thanks.
Mar 29, 2018, 11:10 am
#3
Original Poster
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 25
Mar 29, 2018, 11:17 am
#4
Ambassador: Emirates Airlines
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: Manchester, UK
Posts: 18,613
According to Amex's page, "Transfers are normally immediate, but please allow up to 48 hours for the transfer to be completed"... Iffy, but maybe good enough?
Mar 29, 2018, 10:57 pm
#8
Join Date: Aug 2013
Location: DXB
Programs: EK, AA, DL, UA, SPG, HGP, Amex
Posts: 1,208
I’ve booked an O class round trip for 2 for September, which says it allows upgrading to First at check in.
What is the likelihood that there will be upgrade availability then? Is it purely whether there are suites available, or does some other factor apply?
Also, if I’m planning on using AmEx points for this, will I be able to transfer the points quick enough to use at checkin once I’ve confirmed availability?
Thanks.
What is the likelihood that there will be upgrade availability then? Is it purely whether there are suites available, or does some other factor apply?
Also, if I’m planning on using AmEx points for this, will I be able to transfer the points quick enough to use at checkin once I’ve confirmed availability?
Thanks.
Mar 30, 2018, 12:14 am
#9
Ambassador, Emirates
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: LGW / AMS / CPT
Programs: SA KL BA EK
Posts: 4,273
O class is a business saver fare (and business ‘Flex awards’ also book in O so yes, you are correct). The availability of F awards / upgrades (booking in Z bucket) does not depend on what the original fare bucket in business class was. That upgrade does however require more miles than an upgrade from a Flex or Flex+ fare.
To answer the question: it is difficult to predict the likelihood of upgrades becoming available. It certainly depends on the route, but obviously also on other factors such as (predicted load).
To answer the question: it is difficult to predict the likelihood of upgrades becoming available. It certainly depends on the route, but obviously also on other factors such as (predicted load).
Last edited by thijsseh; Mar 30, 2018 at 12:22 am
Mar 30, 2018, 1:52 am
#11
Ambassador, Emirates
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: LGW / AMS / CPT
Programs: SA KL BA EK
Posts: 4,273
This is all down to revenue management: as long as EK think they can sell an F seat at a Flex+ fare to a late 'walkup' passenger, they would much prefer this to an award upgrade. But obviously an empty seat is bad news for revenue and they would rather take your miles and put you in the seat than let it go empty.
If you tell me what route you are thinking of, I can look up what the loads in F are currently. That of course is no guarantee but we know that some routes are incredibly 'premium heavy' and are very difficult to get upgrades on and others are not that bad.
Mar 31, 2018, 6:13 am
#14
Ambassador, Emirates
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: LGW / AMS / CPT
Programs: SA KL BA EK
Posts: 4,273
OK, for whatever it is worth: tonight's flight is F4 A4, meaning they are still selling F seats. Also they are selling J and Y seats, so not much chance that people will be upgraded. The seat map shows only 6 out of 14 seats selected (plus 2 blocked, one of which is 2A, the UM seat). This would all suggest that there is a reasonable chance of getting a miles upgrade at the airport.
In your favour: EK will not give status members 'free' upgrades like US based airlines tend to do. If no-one is prepared to pay cash or miles to sit up front (or in front upstairs in this case), the cabin will have empty seats. I am not a regular F flyer, but in my limited experience I have only once seen a full F cabin (and that was when the flight was jam packed and I got an op-up..). Others here will have a better view on this.
Looking for upgrade availability a month ahead: 4 out of 7 days show at least one seat available for upgrade.
All in all, there may be a reasonable chance that you 'get lucky' at the airport. Whether or not that means that you should convert those AMEX points is entirely out of my sphere of competence / interest.
The mantra though is: if you want to fly F, the most certain way to do so is to buy an F ticket (or upgrade as you buy a J ticket if there is upgrade availability)
In your favour: EK will not give status members 'free' upgrades like US based airlines tend to do. If no-one is prepared to pay cash or miles to sit up front (or in front upstairs in this case), the cabin will have empty seats. I am not a regular F flyer, but in my limited experience I have only once seen a full F cabin (and that was when the flight was jam packed and I got an op-up..). Others here will have a better view on this.
Looking for upgrade availability a month ahead: 4 out of 7 days show at least one seat available for upgrade.
All in all, there may be a reasonable chance that you 'get lucky' at the airport. Whether or not that means that you should convert those AMEX points is entirely out of my sphere of competence / interest.
The mantra though is: if you want to fly F, the most certain way to do so is to buy an F ticket (or upgrade as you buy a J ticket if there is upgrade availability)