How can you tell? Expertflyer has the economy buckets down to 1 on one of my flights. I guess that's the number of tickets left rather than the number of seats, right?

One ticket for sale, but then it's likely already oversold

Any anecdotal evidence on how many seats they usually oversell in economy A380? I'm guessing it's highly variable depending on route and time.

Depends how many seats remain unsold in higher cabins. I have much more experience on the 77W where I regularly see 10-30 over. Obviously depends on demand. They may be willing to go 30 over but only have buyers for 10 over

And of course, some of those will be in J or F anyway. Also there are certain routes where Platinums (and iOs) are more often found or not, although when it comes to iOs they are generally sprinkled in clusters.

EK's big historical strength is their load forecasting system - it is eerily accurate.

I've seen flights which have been overbooked by 50-60 in Y, yet the forecast load was 98%, and it ended up being just about right, with no upgrades.

Sorry to revive a four year old thread, but does anyone know how QF platinum fit into the upgrade priority these days? A QF plat friend of mine used to get a lot of opups, but that pre-dates the 2019 changes. In 2020 I had a fair few flights that were 100% full while booked in J fare class, but never did get an opup as a QF platinum. They were QF codes and tickets though, so had always assumed that may have hurt my chances.

QF P1 here. If you are flying on an EK number (as I am tonight NRT-DXB) then you appear in essentially all EK systems as Skywards Plat, so you float up depending on your fare bucket. I'm on J Flex Plus with Y0 so I'm hoping my ignoring of upgrade incentive emails will pay off and I'll be in F. Will report back.

My guess is that for flights ex-DXB, they know that a certain % of flights will misconnect and can be moved to a quieter flight 2-8 hours later.

Ive been bumped from connections where I have landed on time and I reckon it was for this reason..

I'm fairly new to Emirates but reading a few threads, am I right in saying that you need to be Flex Plus to be likely to get an upgrade?
I've been booking Flex but my colleague was upgraded from Business to First on a recent flight, I wonder if he was booking Flex Plus as he still has no status with Emirates.

Much more dependent on route frankly.

Mrs t and myself once were both upgraded J to F from a J saver ticket and we were both Silver at the time (DXB//CPT).
So although the official rule is Plats first, then Flex Plus in order of status, then Flex etc, there are times this is not applied.
To be fair, we were also once upgraded on the same route from a Flex+ as blue members. That was the first time we were in F - in the time of the old brown pyjamas….

I fly DXB/LGW most frequently, sometimes LHR.
I guess I need to step up my game and book Flex Plus.

Probably some of the most difficult routes to get an Op-up on